Andrey Rublev vs Camilo Ugo CarabelliPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Andrey Rublev and Camilo Ugo Carabelli have met 2 times since 2024; Andrey Rublev leads 2–0. Their first meeting came at Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag in 2024 on clay. On clay courts Rublev leads 2–0. Rublev has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings Rublev has taken 5 sets to Carabelli's 1. Their most recent meeting: Andrey Rublev won at French Open - Paris (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Rublev | Ugo Carabelli | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Andrey Rublev | Camilo Ugo Carabelli | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 71% | 17/24 | 62% | 13/21 |
| Wins a set when losing | 39% | 7/18 | 27% | 6/22 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 33% | 14/42 | 33% | 14/43 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 47% | 17/36 | 33% | 4/12 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 17% | 1/6 | 46% | 13/28 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 44% | 8/18 | 58% | 11/19 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 81% | 21/26 | 88% | 14/16 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 65% | 17/26 | 81% | 13/16 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 1 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Rublev 1, Ugo Carabelli 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Rublev
🤖 Servebot
Carabelli
⚙️ Grinder
Matchup analysis
The 🤖 Servebot archetype wins about 56% vs ⚙️ Grinder across 1,470 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Andrey Rublev.
Servebot players often use high ace rate and dominant service to pressure the grinder's relentless consistency.
Previous meetings
2 career meetings, newest first
May 27, 2026
French Open - Paris
C Clay · 2nd Round
Jul 23, 2024
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag
C Clay · 2nd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Rublev | Carabelli | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Andrey Rublev | Camilo Ugo Carabelli | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 11/11 | 100% | 7/7 |
| 3 or more | 100% | 11/11 | 57% | 4/7 |
| 5 or more | 82% | 9/11 | 57% | 4/7 |
| 10 or more | 36% | 4/11 | 0% | 0/7 |
| 15 or more | 18% | 2/11 | 0% | 0/7 |
| 20 or more | 9% | 1/11 | 0% | 0/7 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Rublev | Carabelli |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 6–5 | 3–4 |
| Avg odds | 1.44 | 2.47 |
| ROI % | -22.6% | -22.6% |
| Units P/L | -2.48u | -1.58u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Rublev | Carabelli |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 3 |
| Events | 2 | 3 |
| Matches | 3 | 3 |
| Distance | 712 mi · 1,146 km | 1,959 mi · 3,153 km |
| Route | CAN → USA | CAN → USA → MEX |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Rublev has a higher win rate against shared opponents (70% vs Carabelli's 40%).
| Opponent | Rublev | Carabelli |
|---|---|---|
| Pablo Carreno Busta | W 76 61 | W 36 75 75 |
| Miomir Kecmanovic | W 64 64 | L 36 36 |
| Cameron Norrie | L 26 76 26 | L 67 46 |
| Luca Van Assche | L 63 36 46 | W 06 63 62 |
| Timofey Skatov | W 61 61 | W 67 63 64 |
| Alejandro Tabilo | W 64 46 64 | L 46 26 |
| Sebastian Baez | W 61 62 | L 67 26 |
| Ignacio Buse | W 63 67 63 75 | W 63 36 75 |
| Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | W 64 64 | L 16 36 |
| Flavio Cobolli | L 67 36 | L 76 16 46 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Nuno Borges
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Pablo Carreno Busta
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Juncheng Shang
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 4
Luca Van Assche
Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril · Quarterfinals
Jul 24
Timofey Skatov
Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril · 2nd Round
Jul 23
Luciano Darderi
Nordea Open - Bastad · Final
Jul 19
Alejandro Tabilo
Nordea Open - Bastad · Semifinals
Jul 18
Sebastian Baez
Nordea Open - Bastad · Quarterfinals
Jul 17
Nicolas Mejia
Cancun Challenger · 1st Round
Aug 20
Miomir Kecmanovic
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 13
Cameron Norrie
National Bank Open - Montreal · 1st Round
Aug 4
Titouan Droguet
Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril · 1st Round
Jul 20
Roman Andres Burruchaga
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · Quarterfinals
Jul 16
Pablo Carreno Busta
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · 2nd Round
Jul 15
Marko Topo
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · 1st Round
Jul 14
Daniel Merida
Wimbledon · Round of 128
Jun 30
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 47–51 matches
| Metric | Rublev | Carabelli |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 57% | 47% |
| Sets won | 56% | 47% |
| Games won | 52% | 48% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Rublev | Carabelli |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 1 | 0 |
| ATP World Tour 250 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Rublev | Carabelli |
|---|---|---|
| Clay | 2 | 0 |
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