Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Luciano DarderiPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Camilo Ugo Carabelli and Luciano Darderi have met 7 times since 2021; Luciano Darderi leads 5–2. Their first meeting came at Montevideo Challenger in 2021 on clay. On clay courts Darderi leads 5–2. Darderi has won the last 4 meetings. Across all meetings Carabelli has taken 5 sets to Darderi's 12. Their most recent meeting: Luciano Darderi won at Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Ugo Carabelli | Darderi | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Camilo Ugo Carabelli | Luciano Darderi | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 62% | 13/21 | 60% | 21/35 |
| Wins a set when losing | 27% | 6/22 | 36% | 9/25 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 33% | 14/43 | 38% | 23/60 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 33% | 4/12 | 52% | 17/33 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 46% | 13/28 | 43% | 9/21 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 58% | 11/19 | 52% | 11/21 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 88% | 14/16 | 84% | 27/32 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 81% | 13/16 | 66% | 21/32 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 4 of 7 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Ugo Carabelli 0, Darderi 4).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Carabelli
⚙️ Grinder
Darderi
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
The 💥 Big Hitter archetype wins about 55% vs ⚙️ Grinder across 1,211 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Luciano Darderi.
Big Hitter players often use power groundstrokes and high winner count to pressure the grinder's relentless consistency.
Previous meetings
7 career meetings, newest first
Jul 25, 2025
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag
C Clay · Semifinals
May 16, 2024
Turin Challenger
C Clay · 1st Round
May 2, 2024
Cagliari Challenger
C Clay · 2nd Round
Nov 9, 2023
Lima 2 Challenger
C Clay · 2nd Round
Nov 2, 2023
Guayaquil Challenger
C Clay · 2nd Round
Oct 11, 2022
Rio De Janeiro Challenger
C Clay · 1st Round
Nov 9, 2021
Montevideo Challenger
C Clay · 1st Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Carabelli | Darderi | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Camilo Ugo Carabelli | Luciano Darderi | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 7/7 | 100% | 15/15 |
| 3 or more | 57% | 4/7 | 87% | 13/15 |
| 5 or more | 57% | 4/7 | 47% | 7/15 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/7 | 7% | 1/15 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/7 | 0% | 0/15 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/7 | 0% | 0/15 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Carabelli | Darderi |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 3–4 | 9–7 |
| Avg odds | 2.47 | 1.97 |
| ROI % | -22.6% | -0.4% |
| Units P/L | -1.58u | -0.07u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Carabelli | Darderi |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 3 | 2 |
| Events | 3 | 3 |
| Matches | 3 | 6 |
| Distance | 1,959 mi · 3,153 km | 1,024 mi · 1,648 km |
| Route | CAN → USA → MEX | CAN → USA |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Darderi has a higher win rate against shared opponents (30% vs Carabelli's 20%).
| Opponent | Carabelli | Darderi |
|---|---|---|
| Rinky Hijikata | L 67 46 | L 46 26 |
| Miomir Kecmanovic | L 36 36 | L 64 26 36 |
| Brandon Nakashima | L 36 46 | L 26 36 |
| Andrey Rublev | L 16 61 36 67 | L 46 36 |
| Roman Andres Burruchaga | L 26 62 36 | W 63 76 |
| Tomas Martin Etcheverry | W 75 63 | L 36 63 510 |
| Yannick Hanfmann | L 46 36 | W 75 63 |
| Francisco Comesana | W 64 76 | L 67 64 46 62 46 |
| Alex de Minaur | L 46 26 | L 06 36 |
| Rafael Jodar | L 36 36 | W 76 57 60 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Nicolas Mejia
Cancun Challenger · 1st Round
Aug 20
Miomir Kecmanovic
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 13
Cameron Norrie
National Bank Open - Montreal · 1st Round
Aug 4
Titouan Droguet
Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril · 1st Round
Jul 20
Roman Andres Burruchaga
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · Quarterfinals
Jul 16
Pablo Carreno Busta
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · 2nd Round
Jul 15
Marko Topo
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · 1st Round
Jul 14
Daniel Merida
Wimbledon · Round of 128
Jun 30
Botic van de Zandschulp
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 3rd Round
Aug 26
Mattia Bellucci
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 2nd Round
Aug 25
Rinky Hijikata
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Brandon Nakashima
National Bank Open - Montreal · Quarterfinals
Aug 11
Nuno Borges
National Bank Open - Montreal · 4th Round
Aug 8
Juncheng Shang
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 6
Alexander Blockx
Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril · Semifinals
Jul 25
Jaime Faria
Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril · Quarterfinals
Jul 24
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 47–67 matches
| Metric | Carabelli | Darderi |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 47% | 58% |
| Sets won | 47% | 55% |
| Games won | 48% | 51% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Carabelli | Darderi |
|---|---|---|
| ATP 250 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP Challenger Tour | 2 | 4 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Carabelli | Darderi |
|---|---|---|
| Clay | 2 | 5 |
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