Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Luciano DarderiPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Camilo Ugo Carabelli and Luciano Darderi have met 7 times since 2021; Luciano Darderi leads 5–2. Their first meeting came at Montevideo Challenger in 2021 on clay. On clay courts Darderi leads 5–2. Darderi has won the last 4 meetings. Across all meetings Carabelli has taken 5 sets to Darderi's 12. Their most recent meeting: Luciano Darderi won at Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Ugo Carabelli | Darderi | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Camilo Ugo Carabelli | Luciano Darderi | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 59% | 13/22 | 55% | 16/29 |
| Wins a set when losing | 32% | 7/22 | 38% | 9/24 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 36% | 16/44 | 42% | 22/53 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 33% | 4/12 | 43% | 12/28 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 52% | 15/29 | 50% | 10/20 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 58% | 11/19 | 53% | 10/19 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 82% | 14/17 | 81% | 22/27 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 76% | 13/17 | 59% | 16/27 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 4 of 7 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Ugo Carabelli 0, Darderi 4).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Carabelli
⚙️ Grinder
Darderi
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
The 💥 Big Hitter archetype wins about 55% vs ⚙️ Grinder across 682 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Luciano Darderi.
Big Hitter players often use power groundstrokes and high winner count to pressure the grinder's relentless consistency.
Previous meetings
7 career meetings, newest first
Jul 25, 2025
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag
C Clay · Semifinals
May 16, 2024
Turin Challenger
C Clay · 1st Round
May 2, 2024
Cagliari Challenger
C Clay · 2nd Round
Nov 9, 2023
Lima 2 Challenger
C Clay · 2nd Round
Nov 2, 2023
Guayaquil Challenger
C Clay · 2nd Round
Oct 11, 2022
Rio De Janeiro Challenger
C Clay · 1st Round
Nov 9, 2021
Montevideo Challenger
C Clay · 1st Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Carabelli | Darderi | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Camilo Ugo Carabelli | Luciano Darderi | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 9/9 | 95% | 18/19 |
| 3 or more | 67% | 6/9 | 79% | 15/19 |
| 5 or more | 67% | 6/9 | 47% | 9/19 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/9 | 16% | 3/19 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/9 | 11% | 2/19 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/9 | 0% | 0/19 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Carabelli | Darderi |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 2–7 | 12–8 |
| Avg odds | 3.43 | 2.16 |
| ROI % | -47.1% | +2.8% |
| Units P/L | -4.24u | +0.55u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Carabelli | Darderi |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 3 | 2 |
| Matches | 4 | 3 |
| Distance | 3,172 mi · 5,105 km | 1,092 mi · 1,758 km |
| Route | CHN → JPN → CHN | JPN → CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Darderi has a higher win rate against shared opponents (30% vs Carabelli's 20%).
| Opponent | Carabelli | Darderi |
|---|---|---|
| Rinky Hijikata | L 26 36 | L 46 26 |
| Alexander Zverev | L 76 16 57 | L 26 26 67 |
| Miomir Kecmanovic | L 36 36 | L 64 26 36 |
| Brandon Nakashima | L 36 46 | L 26 36 |
| Andrey Rublev | L 16 61 36 67 | L 46 36 |
| Roman Andres Burruchaga | L 26 62 36 | W 63 76 |
| Tomas Martin Etcheverry | W 75 63 | L 36 63 510 |
| Yannick Hanfmann | L 46 36 | W 75 63 |
| Francisco Comesana | W 64 76 | L 67 64 46 62 46 |
| Rafael Jodar | L 36 36 | W 76 57 60 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Felix Auger-Aliassime
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Ilia Simakin
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 8
Rinky Hijikata
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 28
Federico Cina
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · 1st Round
Sep 24
Jan-Lennard Struff
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 1
Moez Echargui
Cancun Challenger · 2nd Round
Aug 20
Nicolas Mejia
Cancun Challenger · 1st Round
Aug 20
Miomir Kecmanovic
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 13
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Kyrian Jacquet
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 2nd Round
Oct 2
Casper Ruud
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Oct 1
Alexander Zverev
U.S. Open - New York · 4th Round
Sep 8
Dane Sweeny
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 5
Dalibor Svrcina
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Harry Wendelken
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 31
Botic van de Zandschulp
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 3rd Round
Aug 26
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 49–64 matches
| Metric | Carabelli | Darderi |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 47% | 56% |
| Sets won | 47% | 54% |
| Games won | 48% | 51% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Carabelli | Darderi |
|---|---|---|
| ATP 250 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP Challenger Tour | 2 | 4 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Carabelli | Darderi |
|---|---|---|
| Clay | 2 | 5 |
Share this matchup
Copy the link to paste in Discord or group chats.