Andrey Rublev vs Matteo ArnaldiPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Andrey Rublev and Matteo Arnaldi have met 5 times since 2023; Andrey Rublev leads 3–2. Their first meeting came at Erste Bank Open - Vienna in 2023 on hard. On hard courts Rublev leads 3–1. Across all meetings Rublev has taken 7 sets to Arnaldi's 5. Their most recent meeting: Andrey Rublev won at Australian Open - Melbourne (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Rublev | Arnaldi | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Andrey Rublev | Matteo Arnaldi | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 66% | 19/29 | 42% | 8/19 |
| Wins a set when losing | 39% | 7/18 | 56% | 10/18 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 36% | 17/47 | 57% | 21/37 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 49% | 19/39 | 31% | 5/16 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 25% | 2/8 | 67% | 12/18 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 55% | 11/20 | 62% | 13/21 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 83% | 25/30 | 87% | 13/15 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 63% | 19/30 | 53% | 8/15 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Rublev 2, Arnaldi 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Rublev
💥 Big Hitter
Arnaldi
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
Both Andrey Rublev and Matteo Arnaldi are 💥 Big Hitter types. Mirror matchups usually come down to execution, fitness, and surface fit, across 4,120 matches in our dataset the historical split is about even.
Previous meetings
5 career meetings, newest first
Jan 19, 2026
Australian Open - Melbourne
H Hard · 1st Round
Mar 8, 2025
BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells
H Hard · 2nd Round
Aug 11, 2024
National Bank Open - Montreal
H Hard · Semifinals
May 31, 2024
French Open - Paris
C Clay · 3rd Round
Oct 26, 2023
Erste Bank Open - Vienna
H Hard · 2nd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Rublev | Arnaldi | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Andrey Rublev | Matteo Arnaldi | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 19/19 | 100% | 8/8 |
| 3 or more | 100% | 19/19 | 88% | 7/8 |
| 5 or more | 84% | 16/19 | 63% | 5/8 |
| 10 or more | 47% | 9/19 | 13% | 1/8 |
| 15 or more | 16% | 3/19 | 0% | 0/8 |
| 20 or more | 5% | 1/19 | 0% | 0/8 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Rublev | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 11–7 | 3–5 |
| Avg odds | 1.50 | 3.31 |
| ROI % | -14.8% | -27.4% |
| Units P/L | -2.67u | -2.19u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Rublev | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 2 |
| Events | 3 | 2 |
| Matches | 8 | 4 |
| Distance | 1,361 mi · 2,191 km | 1,092 mi · 1,758 km |
| Route | CHN | JPN → CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Arnaldi has a higher win rate against shared opponents (70% vs Rublev's 40%).
| Opponent | Rublev | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Rei Sakamoto | L 46 46 | W 26 64 64 |
| Alex de Minaur | L 61 26 36 | W 46 76 64 |
| Carlos Alcaraz | L 67 46 | L 67 16 |
| Tallon Griekspoor | W 64 57 76 | L 63 46 36 |
| Hugo Gaston | W 67 76 61 | W 61 57 76 |
| Nuno Borges | L 36 46 | W 63 67 76 |
| Fabian Marozsan | W 62 64 | W 75 26 64 |
| Lorenzo Musetti | L 76 57 46 | L |
| Hubert Hurkacz | L 36 26 | W 64 64 |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | W 63 76 | W 76 57 63 62 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Rei Sakamoto
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 9
Alex de Minaur
China Open - Beijing · Quarterfinals
Oct 4
Roman Safiullin
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Tallon Griekspoor
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 1
Daniil Medvedev
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · Final
Sep 29
Kyrian Jacquet
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · Semifinals
Sep 28
Hugo Gaston
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · Quarterfinals
Sep 27
Rinky Hijikata
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · 2nd Round
Sep 25
Taylor Fritz
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Bernard Tomic
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 8
Carlos Alcaraz
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Rei Sakamoto
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Sep 30
James Duckworth
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 31
Martin Landaluce
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Tallon Griekspoor
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Fabian Marozsan
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 6
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 44–57 matches
| Metric | Rublev | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 61% | 52% |
| Sets won | 58% | 50% |
| Games won | 53% | 49% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Rublev | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 1 | 1 |
| ATP 500 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 1 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Rublev | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 3 | 1 |
| Clay | 0 | 1 |
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