Andrey Rublev vs Matteo ArnaldiPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Andrey Rublev and Matteo Arnaldi have met 5 times since 2023; Andrey Rublev leads 3–2. Their first meeting came at Erste Bank Open - Vienna in 2023 on hard. On hard courts Rublev leads 3–1. Across all meetings Rublev has taken 7 sets to Arnaldi's 5. Their most recent meeting: Andrey Rublev won at Australian Open - Melbourne (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Rublev | Arnaldi | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Andrey Rublev | Matteo Arnaldi | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 71% | 17/24 | 41% | 7/17 |
| Wins a set when losing | 39% | 7/18 | 58% | 11/19 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 33% | 14/42 | 58% | 21/36 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 47% | 17/36 | 24% | 4/17 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 17% | 1/6 | 63% | 10/16 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 44% | 8/18 | 60% | 12/20 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 81% | 21/26 | 87% | 13/15 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 65% | 17/26 | 47% | 7/15 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Rublev 2, Arnaldi 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Rublev
🤖 Servebot
Arnaldi
⚙️ Grinder
Matchup analysis
The 🤖 Servebot archetype wins about 56% vs ⚙️ Grinder across 1,470 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Andrey Rublev.
Servebot players often use high ace rate and dominant service to pressure the grinder's relentless consistency.
Previous meetings
5 career meetings, newest first
Jan 19, 2026
Australian Open - Melbourne
H Hard · 1st Round
Mar 8, 2025
BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells
H Hard · 2nd Round
Aug 11, 2024
National Bank Open - Montreal
H Hard · Semifinals
May 31, 2024
French Open - Paris
C Clay · 3rd Round
Oct 26, 2023
Erste Bank Open - Vienna
H Hard · 2nd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Rublev | Arnaldi | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Andrey Rublev | Matteo Arnaldi | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 11/11 | 100% | 10/10 |
| 3 or more | 100% | 11/11 | 90% | 9/10 |
| 5 or more | 82% | 9/11 | 70% | 7/10 |
| 10 or more | 36% | 4/11 | 20% | 2/10 |
| 15 or more | 18% | 2/11 | 0% | 0/10 |
| 20 or more | 9% | 1/11 | 0% | 0/10 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Rublev | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 6–5 | 2–5 |
| Avg odds | 1.44 | 1.87 |
| ROI % | -22.6% | -50.4% |
| Units P/L | -2.48u | -3.53u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Rublev | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 2 | 2 |
| Matches | 3 | 3 |
| Distance | 712 mi · 1,146 km | 712 mi · 1,146 km |
| Route | CAN → USA | CAN → USA |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Arnaldi has a higher win rate against shared opponents (67% vs Rublev's 56%).
| Opponent | Rublev | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Nuno Borges | L 36 46 | W 63 67 76 |
| Tallon Griekspoor | L 57 67 | L 63 46 36 |
| Fabian Marozsan | W 62 64 | W 75 26 64 |
| Hubert Hurkacz | L 36 26 | W 64 64 |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | W 63 76 | W 76 57 63 62 |
| Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | W 64 64 | L 46 46 |
| Vit Kopriva | L 36 46 | W 26 63 62 |
| Jesper de Jong | W 64 63 | W 64 76 |
| Jacob Fearnley | W 61 64 | L 57 26 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Nuno Borges
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Pablo Carreno Busta
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Juncheng Shang
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 4
Luca Van Assche
Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril · Quarterfinals
Jul 24
Timofey Skatov
Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril · 2nd Round
Jul 23
Luciano Darderi
Nordea Open - Bastad · Final
Jul 19
Alejandro Tabilo
Nordea Open - Bastad · Semifinals
Jul 18
Sebastian Baez
Nordea Open - Bastad · Quarterfinals
Jul 17
Martin Landaluce
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Tallon Griekspoor
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Fabian Marozsan
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 6
Damir Dzumhur
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · Quarterfinals
Jul 16
Federico Agustin Gomez
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · 2nd Round
Jul 15
Quentin Halys
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 30
Giles Hussey
Lexus Eastbourne Open - Eastbourne · 1st Round
Jun 23
Matteo Berrettini
Roland Garros · Quarterfinals
Jun 3
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 42–51 matches
| Metric | Rublev | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 57% | 50% |
| Sets won | 56% | 49% |
| Games won | 52% | 49% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Rublev | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 1 | 1 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP World Tour Masters 1000 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP World Tour 500 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Rublev | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 3 | 1 |
| Clay | 0 | 1 |
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