Lorenzo Musetti vs Matteo ArnaldiPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Lorenzo Musetti and Matteo Arnaldi have met 4 times since 2019; Lorenzo Musetti leads 4–0. Their first meeting came at Barletta in 2019 on clay. On clay courts Musetti leads 3–0. Musetti has won the last 4 meetings. Across all meetings Musetti has taken 9 sets to Arnaldi's 2. Their most recent meeting: Lorenzo Musetti won at Australian Open - Melbourne (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Musetti | Arnaldi | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Lorenzo Musetti | Matteo Arnaldi | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 72% | 21/29 | 41% | 7/17 |
| Wins a set when losing | 24% | 4/17 | 58% | 11/19 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 26% | 12/46 | 58% | 21/36 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 59% | 20/34 | 24% | 4/17 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 30% | 3/10 | 63% | 10/16 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 47% | 7/15 | 60% | 12/20 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 90% | 26/29 | 87% | 13/15 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 72% | 21/29 | 47% | 7/15 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Musetti 2, Arnaldi 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Musetti
🎯 Baseliner
Arnaldi
⚙️ Grinder
Matchup analysis
The 🎯 Baseliner archetype wins about 56% vs ⚙️ Grinder across 460 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Lorenzo Musetti.
Baseliner players often use precise groundstrokes and court control to pressure the grinder's relentless consistency.
Previous meetings
4 career meetings, newest first
Jan 14, 2025
Australian Open - Melbourne
H Hard · 1st Round
Jul 19, 2023
Nordea Open - Bastad
C Clay · 2nd Round
May 14, 2023
Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome
C Clay · 2nd Round
Apr 10, 2019
Barletta
C Clay · Round of 32
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Musetti | Arnaldi | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Lorenzo Musetti | Matteo Arnaldi | ||
| 1 or more | 88% | 7/8 | 100% | 11/11 |
| 3 or more | 63% | 5/8 | 91% | 10/11 |
| 5 or more | 25% | 2/8 | 73% | 8/11 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/8 | 27% | 3/11 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/8 | 9% | 1/11 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/8 | 0% | 0/11 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Musetti | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 5–3 | 3–5 |
| Avg odds | 1.62 | 1.87 |
| ROI % | -18.1% | -33.3% |
| Units P/L | -1.45u | -2.66u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Musetti | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 3 | 2 |
| Matches | 7 | 3 |
| Distance | 1,200 mi · 1,932 km | 712 mi · 1,146 km |
| Route | USA → CAN → USA | CAN → USA |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Musetti has a higher win rate against shared opponents (70% vs Arnaldi's 40%).
| Opponent | Musetti | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Frances Tiafoe | L 67 57 | W 76 67 36 76 64 |
| Martin Landaluce | W 75 62 | L 46 64 46 |
| Rafael Jodar | L 46 36 | L 16 64 36 |
| Tallon Griekspoor | W 64 75 | L 63 46 36 |
| Alex de Minaur | W 75 36 75 | W 46 76 64 |
| Jaume Munar | W 63 60 61 | W 63 36 63 |
| Hubert Hurkacz | W 64 76 | W 64 64 |
| Alexandre Muller | W 62 64 | L 16 76 46 |
| Aleksandr Shevchenko | W 63 61 | L 67 76 26 |
| Marton Fucsovics | L 57 16 | L 57 26 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Frances Tiafoe
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 22
Jaime Faria
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Michael Zheng
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Daniel Altmaier
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Rafael Jodar
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Nicolas Mejia
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Rafael Jodar
Citi Open - Washington · Quarterfinals
Jul 31
Aleksandar Vukic
Citi Open - Washington · 2nd Round
Jul 29
Martin Landaluce
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Tallon Griekspoor
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Fabian Marozsan
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 6
Damir Dzumhur
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · Quarterfinals
Jul 16
Federico Agustin Gomez
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · 2nd Round
Jul 15
Quentin Halys
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 30
Giles Hussey
Lexus Eastbourne Open - Eastbourne · 1st Round
Jun 23
Matteo Berrettini
Roland Garros · Quarterfinals
Jun 3
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 42–52 matches
| Metric | Musetti | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 65% | 50% |
| Sets won | 62% | 49% |
| Games won | 54% | 49% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Musetti | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 1 | 0 |
| ATP World Tour 250 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP World Tour Masters 1000 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Challenger Tour | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Musetti | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 0 |
| Clay | 3 | 0 |
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