Lorenzo Musetti vs Matteo ArnaldiPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Lorenzo Musetti and Matteo Arnaldi have met 5 times since 2019; Lorenzo Musetti leads 5–0. Their first meeting came at Barletta in 2019 on clay. On clay courts Musetti leads 3–0. On hard courts Musetti leads 2–0. Musetti has won the last 5 meetings. Across all meetings Musetti has taken 9 sets to Arnaldi's 2. Their most recent meeting: Lorenzo Musetti won at Citi Open - Washington (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Musetti | Arnaldi | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Lorenzo Musetti | Matteo Arnaldi | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 73% | 16/22 | 42% | 8/19 |
| Wins a set when losing | 25% | 4/16 | 56% | 10/18 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 26% | 10/38 | 57% | 21/37 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 56% | 15/27 | 31% | 5/16 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 33% | 3/9 | 67% | 12/18 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 38% | 5/13 | 62% | 13/21 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 86% | 19/22 | 87% | 13/15 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 73% | 16/22 | 53% | 8/15 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Musetti 2, Arnaldi 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Musetti
💥 Big Hitter
Arnaldi
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
Both Lorenzo Musetti and Matteo Arnaldi are 💥 Big Hitter types. Mirror matchups usually come down to execution, fitness, and surface fit, across 4,120 matches in our dataset the historical split is about even.
Previous meetings
5 career meetings, newest first
Jul 27, 2026
Citi Open - Washington
H Hard · 1st Round
Jan 14, 2025
Australian Open - Melbourne
H Hard · 1st Round
Jul 19, 2023
Nordea Open - Bastad
C Clay · 2nd Round
May 14, 2023
Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome
C Clay · 2nd Round
Apr 10, 2019
Barletta
C Clay · Round of 32
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Musetti | Arnaldi | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Lorenzo Musetti | Matteo Arnaldi | ||
| 1 or more | 91% | 10/11 | 100% | 8/8 |
| 3 or more | 73% | 8/11 | 88% | 7/8 |
| 5 or more | 46% | 5/11 | 63% | 5/8 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/11 | 13% | 1/8 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/11 | 0% | 0/8 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/11 | 0% | 0/8 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Musetti | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 6–5 | 3–5 |
| Avg odds | 1.50 | 3.31 |
| ROI % | -28.7% | -27.4% |
| Units P/L | -3.16u | -2.19u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Musetti | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 2 |
| Events | 1 | 2 |
| Matches | 1 | 4 |
| Distance | 0 mi · 0 km | 1,092 mi · 1,758 km |
| Route | CHN | JPN → CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Musetti has a higher win rate against shared opponents (70% vs Arnaldi's 40%).
| Opponent | Musetti | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Taylor Fritz | W 62 75 64 | L 57 46 |
| Carlos Alcaraz | L 46 16 | L 67 16 |
| Frances Tiafoe | L 67 57 | W 76 67 36 76 64 |
| Martin Landaluce | W 75 62 | L 46 64 46 |
| Rafael Jodar | L 46 36 | L 16 64 36 |
| Tallon Griekspoor | W 64 75 | L 63 46 36 |
| Raphael Collignon | W | W 64 67 57 64 76 |
| Alex de Minaur | W 75 36 75 | W 46 76 64 |
| Hubert Hurkacz | W 64 76 | W 64 64 |
| Alexandre Muller | W 62 64 | L 16 76 46 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Yi Zhou
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 9
Dane Sweeny
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Arthur Fery
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 1
Frances Tiafoe
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 22
Jaime Faria
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Michael Zheng
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Daniel Altmaier
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Rafael Jodar
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Taylor Fritz
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Bernard Tomic
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 8
Carlos Alcaraz
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Rei Sakamoto
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Sep 30
James Duckworth
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 31
Martin Landaluce
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Tallon Griekspoor
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Fabian Marozsan
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 6
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 43–44 matches
| Metric | Musetti | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 60% | 52% |
| Sets won | 59% | 50% |
| Games won | 52% | 49% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Musetti | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 1 | 0 |
| ATP 500 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP 250 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Challenger Tour | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Musetti | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 2 | 0 |
| Clay | 3 | 0 |
Share this matchup
Copy the link to paste in Discord or group chats.