Alexei Popyrin vs Matteo ArnaldiPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Alexei Popyrin and Matteo Arnaldi have met 4 times since 2023; Matteo Arnaldi leads 3–1. Their first meeting came at Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag in 2023 on clay. On hard courts Arnaldi leads 3–0. Arnaldi has won the last 3 meetings. Across all meetings Popyrin has taken 4 sets to Arnaldi's 7. Their most recent meeting: Matteo Arnaldi won at Brisbane (2024).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Popyrin | Arnaldi | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Alexei Popyrin | Matteo Arnaldi | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 45% | 5/11 | 42% | 8/19 |
| Wins a set when losing | 24% | 5/21 | 56% | 10/18 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 34% | 11/32 | 57% | 21/37 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 14% | 2/14 | 31% | 5/16 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 39% | 7/18 | 67% | 12/18 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 22% | 2/9 | 62% | 13/21 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 67% | 8/12 | 87% | 13/15 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 42% | 5/12 | 53% | 8/15 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 4 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Popyrin 0, Arnaldi 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Popyrin
🤖 Servebot
Arnaldi
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
🤖 Servebot vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (51% vs 49%, 4,932 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
4 career meetings, newest first
Dec 31, 2024
Brisbane
H Hard · Round of 32
Nov 26, 2023
Davis Cup, World Group, F, AUS-ITA 0-2
H Hard · Rubber 1
Oct 5, 2023
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai
H Hard · 1st Round
Jul 29, 2023
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag
C Clay · Semifinals
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Popyrin | Arnaldi | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Alexei Popyrin | Matteo Arnaldi | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 7/7 | 100% | 8/8 |
| 3 or more | 100% | 7/7 | 88% | 7/8 |
| 5 or more | 86% | 6/7 | 63% | 5/8 |
| 10 or more | 57% | 4/7 | 13% | 1/8 |
| 15 or more | 29% | 2/7 | 0% | 0/8 |
| 20 or more | 14% | 1/7 | 0% | 0/8 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Popyrin | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 4–4 | 3–5 |
| Avg odds | 1.87 | 3.31 |
| ROI % | -0.9% | -27.4% |
| Units P/L | -0.07u | -2.19u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Popyrin | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | — | 2 |
| Events | — | 2 |
| Matches | — | 4 |
| Distance | — | 1,092 mi · 1,758 km |
| Route | — | JPN → CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Arnaldi has a higher win rate against shared opponents (57% vs Popyrin's 43%).
| Opponent | Popyrin | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Taylor Fritz | W 64 64 | L 57 46 |
| Hugo Gaston | L | W 61 57 76 |
| Raphael Collignon | W 64 63 | W 64 67 57 64 76 |
| Quentin Halys | L 75 36 46 | L 63 16 67 36 |
| Matteo Berrettini | W 62 63 | W |
| Frances Tiafoe | L 63 46 67 | W 76 67 36 76 64 |
| Alexandre Muller | L 62 36 63 67 67 | L 16 76 46 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Alejandro Tabilo
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Grigor Dimitrov
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 1
Hugo Gaston
Quebec City Challenger · 2nd Round
Aug 20
Francesco Maestrelli
Quebec City Challenger · 1st Round
Aug 19
Titouan Droguet
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 11
Thiago Agustin Tirante
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 8
Raphael Collignon
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Roman Andres Burruchaga
National Bank Open - Montreal · 1st Round
Aug 4
Taylor Fritz
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Bernard Tomic
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 8
Carlos Alcaraz
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Rei Sakamoto
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Sep 30
James Duckworth
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 31
Martin Landaluce
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Tallon Griekspoor
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Fabian Marozsan
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 6
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 37–44 matches
| Metric | Popyrin | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 32% | 52% |
| Sets won | 36% | 50% |
| Games won | 47% | 49% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Popyrin | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| ATP 250 | 1 | 1 |
| Other | 0 | 1 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Popyrin | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 3 |
| Clay | 1 | 0 |
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