Alexei Popyrin vs Matteo ArnaldiPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Alexei Popyrin and Matteo Arnaldi have met 4 times since 2023; Matteo Arnaldi leads 3–1. Their first meeting came at Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag in 2023 on clay. On hard courts Arnaldi leads 3–0. Arnaldi has won the last 3 meetings. Across all meetings Popyrin has taken 4 sets to Arnaldi's 7. Their most recent meeting: Matteo Arnaldi won at Brisbane (2024).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Popyrin | Arnaldi | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Alexei Popyrin | Matteo Arnaldi | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 45% | 5/11 | 41% | 7/17 |
| Wins a set when losing | 29% | 6/21 | 58% | 11/19 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 38% | 12/32 | 58% | 21/36 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 15% | 2/13 | 24% | 4/17 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 42% | 8/19 | 63% | 10/16 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 33% | 3/9 | 60% | 12/20 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 62% | 8/13 | 87% | 13/15 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 38% | 5/13 | 47% | 7/15 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 4 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Popyrin 0, Arnaldi 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Popyrin
🤖 Servebot
Arnaldi
⚙️ Grinder
Matchup analysis
The 🤖 Servebot archetype wins about 56% vs ⚙️ Grinder across 1,470 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Alexei Popyrin.
Servebot players often use high ace rate and dominant service to pressure the grinder's relentless consistency.
Previous meetings
4 career meetings, newest first
Dec 31, 2024
Brisbane
H Hard · Round of 32
Nov 26, 2023
Davis Cup, World Group, F, AUS-ITA 0-2
H Hard · Rubber 1
Oct 5, 2023
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai
H Hard · 1st Round
Jul 29, 2023
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag
C Clay · Semifinals
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Popyrin | Arnaldi | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Alexei Popyrin | Matteo Arnaldi | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 8/8 | 100% | 11/11 |
| 3 or more | 100% | 8/8 | 91% | 10/11 |
| 5 or more | 88% | 7/8 | 73% | 8/11 |
| 10 or more | 38% | 3/8 | 27% | 3/11 |
| 15 or more | 13% | 1/8 | 9% | 1/11 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/8 | 0% | 0/11 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Popyrin | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| Avg odds | 1.99 | 1.87 |
| ROI % | -33.8% | -33.3% |
| Units P/L | -2.70u | -2.66u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Popyrin | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 2 |
| Events | 2 | 2 |
| Matches | 4 | 3 |
| Distance | 145 mi · 233 km | 712 mi · 1,146 km |
| Route | CAN | CAN → USA |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Arnaldi has a higher win rate against shared opponents (60% vs Popyrin's 40%).
| Opponent | Popyrin | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Raphael Collignon | W 64 63 | W 64 67 57 64 76 |
| Quentin Halys | L 75 36 46 | L 63 16 67 36 |
| Matteo Berrettini | W 62 63 | W 75 52 |
| Frances Tiafoe | L 63 46 67 | W 76 67 36 76 64 |
| Alexandre Muller | L 62 36 63 67 67 | L 16 76 46 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Francesco Maestrelli
Quebec City Challenger · 1st Round
Aug 19
Thiago Agustin Tirante
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 8
Raphael Collignon
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Roman Andres Burruchaga
National Bank Open - Montreal · 1st Round
Aug 4
Andy Andrade
Vancouver Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 29
Jiri Lehecka
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 30
Jan Choinski
Lexus Eastbourne Open - Eastbourne · 1st Round
Jun 22
Raphael Collignon
Terra Wortmann Open - Halle · 1st Round
Jun 16
Martin Landaluce
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Tallon Griekspoor
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Fabian Marozsan
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 6
Damir Dzumhur
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · Quarterfinals
Jul 16
Federico Agustin Gomez
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · 2nd Round
Jul 15
Quentin Halys
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 30
Giles Hussey
Lexus Eastbourne Open - Eastbourne · 1st Round
Jun 23
Matteo Berrettini
Roland Garros · Quarterfinals
Jun 3
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 35–42 matches
| Metric | Popyrin | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 31% | 50% |
| Sets won | 35% | 49% |
| Games won | 47% | 49% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Popyrin | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| ATP 250 | 0 | 1 |
| Other | 0 | 1 |
| ATP World Tour Masters 1000 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP World Tour 250 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Popyrin | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 3 |
| Clay | 1 | 0 |
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