Andrey Rublev vs Brandon NakashimaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Andrey Rublev and Brandon Nakashima have met 4 times since 2021; Andrey Rublev leads 3–1. Their first meeting came at San Diego Open - San Diego in 2021 on hard. On hard courts Rublev leads 3–0. Rublev has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings Rublev has taken 6 sets to Nakashima's 2. Their most recent meeting: Andrey Rublev won at Western & Southern Open - Cincinnati (2024).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Rublev | Nakashima | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Andrey Rublev | Brandon Nakashima | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 71% | 17/24 | 74% | 25/34 |
| Wins a set when losing | 39% | 7/18 | 33% | 7/21 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 33% | 14/42 | 29% | 16/55 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 47% | 17/36 | 54% | 20/37 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 17% | 1/6 | 69% | 11/16 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 44% | 8/18 | 50% | 15/30 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 81% | 21/26 | 88% | 30/34 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 65% | 17/26 | 74% | 25/34 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 4 of 4 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Rublev 3, Nakashima 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Rublev
🤖 Servebot
Nakashima
🤖 Servebot
Matchup analysis
Both Andrey Rublev and Brandon Nakashima are 🤖 Servebot types. Mirror matchups usually come down to execution, fitness, and surface fit, across 5,568 matches in our dataset the historical split is about even.
Previous meetings
4 career meetings, newest first
Aug 16, 2024
Western & Southern Open - Cincinnati
H Hard · 3rd Round
Aug 10, 2024
National Bank Open - Montreal
H Hard · 3rd Round
Apr 16, 2024
Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell - Barcelona
C Clay · 2nd Round
Sep 29, 2021
San Diego Open - San Diego
H Hard · 2nd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Rublev | Nakashima | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Andrey Rublev | Brandon Nakashima | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 11/11 | 100% | 21/21 |
| 3 or more | 100% | 11/11 | 100% | 21/21 |
| 5 or more | 82% | 9/11 | 91% | 19/21 |
| 10 or more | 36% | 4/11 | 43% | 9/21 |
| 15 or more | 18% | 2/11 | 14% | 3/21 |
| 20 or more | 9% | 1/11 | 10% | 2/21 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Rublev | Nakashima |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 6–5 | 16–5 |
| Avg odds | 1.44 | 1.87 |
| ROI % | -22.6% | +38.6% |
| Units P/L | -2.48u | +8.10u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Rublev | Nakashima |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 2 | 3 |
| Matches | 3 | 13 |
| Distance | 712 mi · 1,146 km | 1,200 mi · 1,932 km |
| Route | CAN → USA | USA → CAN → USA |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Nakashima has a higher win rate against shared opponents (70% vs Rublev's 40%).
| Opponent | Rublev | Nakashima |
|---|---|---|
| Nuno Borges | L 36 46 | W 63 67 63 |
| Ben Shelton | L 67 36 | L 36 67 |
| Luciano Darderi | W 64 63 | W 62 63 |
| Arthur Rinderknech | W 62 64 | W 76 57 75 |
| Juncheng Shang | L 57 64 67 | W 75 63 |
| Jakub Mensik | L 36 67 64 62 36 | W 76 36 64 |
| Luca Van Assche | L 63 36 46 | W 67 64 57 61 63 |
| Alejandro Tabilo | W 64 46 64 | L 46 67 |
| Francisco Cerundolo | L 36 67 36 | L 76 36 46 |
| Ignacio Buse | W 63 67 63 75 | W 62 62 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Nuno Borges
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Pablo Carreno Busta
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Juncheng Shang
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 4
Luca Van Assche
Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril · Quarterfinals
Jul 24
Timofey Skatov
Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril · 2nd Round
Jul 23
Luciano Darderi
Nordea Open - Bastad · Final
Jul 19
Alejandro Tabilo
Nordea Open - Bastad · Semifinals
Jul 18
Sebastian Baez
Nordea Open - Bastad · Quarterfinals
Jul 17
Frances Tiafoe
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Semifinals
Aug 23
Taylor Fritz
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 21
Nuno Borges
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Daniil Medvedev
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Aleksandar Kovacevic
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Ben Shelton
National Bank Open - Montreal · Final
Aug 14
Rafael Jodar
National Bank Open - Montreal · Semifinals
Aug 13
Luciano Darderi
National Bank Open - Montreal · Quarterfinals
Aug 11
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 52–61 matches
| Metric | Rublev | Nakashima |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 58% | 61% |
| Sets won | 56% | 59% |
| Games won | 52% | 53% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Rublev | Nakashima |
|---|---|---|
| ATP World Tour Masters 1000 | 2 | 0 |
| ATP World Tour 500 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP World Tour 250 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Rublev | Nakashima |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 3 | 0 |
| Clay | 0 | 1 |
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