Andrey Rublev vs Brandon NakashimaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Andrey Rublev and Brandon Nakashima have met 4 times since 2021; Andrey Rublev leads 3–1. Their first meeting came at San Diego Open - San Diego in 2021 on hard. On hard courts Rublev leads 3–0. Rublev has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings Rublev has taken 6 sets to Nakashima's 2. Their most recent meeting: Andrey Rublev won at Western & Southern Open - Cincinnati (2024).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Rublev | Nakashima | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Andrey Rublev | Brandon Nakashima | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 66% | 19/29 | 74% | 23/31 |
| Wins a set when losing | 39% | 7/18 | 40% | 8/20 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 36% | 17/47 | 31% | 16/51 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 49% | 19/39 | 55% | 18/33 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 25% | 2/8 | 75% | 12/16 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 55% | 11/20 | 50% | 14/28 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 83% | 25/30 | 85% | 28/33 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 63% | 19/30 | 70% | 23/33 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 4 of 4 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Rublev 3, Nakashima 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Rublev
💥 Big Hitter
Nakashima
🤖 Servebot
Matchup analysis
💥 Big Hitter vs 🤖 Servebot is historically tight (49% vs 51%, 4,932 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
4 career meetings, newest first
Aug 16, 2024
Western & Southern Open - Cincinnati
H Hard · 3rd Round
Aug 10, 2024
National Bank Open - Montreal
H Hard · 3rd Round
Apr 16, 2024
Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell - Barcelona
C Clay · 2nd Round
Sep 29, 2021
San Diego Open - San Diego
H Hard · 2nd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Rublev | Nakashima | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Andrey Rublev | Brandon Nakashima | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 18/18 | 100% | 21/21 |
| 3 or more | 100% | 18/18 | 95% | 20/21 |
| 5 or more | 83% | 15/18 | 91% | 19/21 |
| 10 or more | 44% | 8/18 | 52% | 11/21 |
| 15 or more | 11% | 2/18 | 10% | 2/21 |
| 20 or more | 6% | 1/18 | 5% | 1/21 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Rublev | Nakashima |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 11–7 | 15–6 |
| Avg odds | 1.50 | 1.84 |
| ROI % | -14.8% | +27.8% |
| Units P/L | -2.67u | +5.84u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Rublev | Nakashima |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 3 |
| Events | 3 | 3 |
| Matches | 8 | 4 |
| Distance | 1,361 mi · 2,191 km | 7,032 mi · 11,317 km |
| Route | CHN | GBR → JPN → CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Nakashima has a higher win rate against shared opponents (70% vs Rublev's 50%).
| Opponent | Rublev | Nakashima |
|---|---|---|
| Alex de Minaur | L 61 26 36 | W 76 64 |
| Tallon Griekspoor | W 64 57 76 | L 67 67 |
| Ugo Humbert | W 64 67 63 | L 36 26 |
| Daniil Medvedev | L 57 46 | W 67 76 61 |
| Jakub Mensik | L 36 67 64 62 36 | W 61 36 107 |
| Sebastian Baez | W 61 62 | W 62 61 60 |
| Nuno Borges | L 36 46 | W 63 67 63 |
| Ben Shelton | L 67 36 | L 36 67 |
| Luciano Darderi | W 64 63 | W 62 63 |
| Arthur Rinderknech | W 62 64 | W 76 57 75 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Rei Sakamoto
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 9
Alex de Minaur
China Open - Beijing · Quarterfinals
Oct 4
Roman Safiullin
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Tallon Griekspoor
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 1
Daniil Medvedev
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · Final
Sep 29
Kyrian Jacquet
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · Semifinals
Sep 28
Hugo Gaston
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · Quarterfinals
Sep 27
Rinky Hijikata
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · 2nd Round
Sep 25
Alexander Bublik
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 11
Matteo Berrettini
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 9
Ugo Humbert
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Oct 1
Jakub Mensik
Laver Cup - London · Round Robin
Sep 25
Alex Michelsen
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 2
Sebastian Baez
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 31
Frances Tiafoe
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Semifinals
Aug 23
Taylor Fritz
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 21
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 57–59 matches
| Metric | Rublev | Nakashima |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 61% | 59% |
| Sets won | 58% | 58% |
| Games won | 53% | 53% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Rublev | Nakashima |
|---|---|---|
| ATP 500 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP 250 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 2 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Rublev | Nakashima |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 3 | 0 |
| Clay | 0 | 1 |
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