Alex de Minaur vs Sebastian KordaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Alex de Minaur and Sebastian Korda have met 5 times since 2021; Alex de Minaur leads 4–1. Their first meeting came at Wimbledon - London in 2021 on grass. On hard courts Minaur leads 3–0. On grass courts they are level 1–1. Minaur has won the last 4 meetings. 1 of their meetings has been a final, with Minaur leading those 1–0. Across all meetings Minaur has taken 9 sets to Korda's 5. Their most recent meeting: Alex de Minaur won at BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | de Minaur | Korda | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Alex de Minaur | Sebastian Korda | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 74% | 28/38 | 64% | 16/25 |
| Wins a set when losing | 43% | 10/23 | 62% | 8/13 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 33% | 20/61 | 45% | 17/38 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 47% | 24/51 | 48% | 15/31 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 56% | 5/9 | 100% | 7/7 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 70% | 16/23 | 60% | 9/15 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 89% | 34/38 | 77% | 20/26 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 74% | 28/38 | 62% | 16/26 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 4 completed meetings ended in straight sets (de Minaur 2, Korda 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Minaur
🪃 Counterpuncher
Korda
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
🪃 Counterpuncher vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (49% vs 51%, 2,363 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
5 career meetings, newest first
Mar 7, 2026
BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells
H Hard · 2nd Round
Jun 16, 2024
Libema Open - 's-Hertogenbosch
G Grass · Final
Feb 13, 2024
ABN AMRO Open - Rotterdam
H Hard · 1st Round
Oct 31, 2022
Rolex Paris Masters - Paris
H Hard · 1st Round
Jun 29, 2021
Wimbledon - London
G Grass · 1st Round
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Minaur | Korda |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 13–6 | - |
| Avg odds | 1.33 | - |
| ROI % | -16.4% | - |
| Units P/L | -3.11u | - |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Minaur | Korda |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | — |
| Events | 3 | — |
| Matches | 6 | — |
| Distance | 1,200 mi · 1,932 km | — |
| Route | USA → CAN → USA | — |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Korda has a higher win rate against shared opponents (90% vs Minaur's 30%).
| Opponent | Minaur | Korda |
|---|---|---|
| Flavio Cobolli | L 57 67 36 | W 76 61 |
| Zachary Svajda | W 62 57 62 64 | L 46 67 |
| Kamil Majchrzak | L 36 62 67 | W 64 46 75 |
| Tommy Paul | L 62 36 36 | W 64 63 |
| Valentin Vacherot | L 46 63 36 | W 76 63 |
| Carlos Alcaraz | L 57 26 16 | W 63 57 64 |
| Camilo Ugo Carabelli | W 64 62 | W 60 63 |
| Patrick Kypson | L 16 76 67 | W 76 62 |
| Casper Ruud | L 36 36 | W 46 62 62 |
| Mackenzie McDonald | W 62 62 63 | W 64 75 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Arthur Fils
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 19
Arthur Fery
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 17
Quentin Halys
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Cameron Norrie
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 6
James Duckworth
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Brandon Nakashima
Citi Open - Washington · Quarterfinals
Jul 31
Cruz Hewitt
Citi Open - Washington · 2nd Round
Jul 30
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Citi Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 29
Martin Landaluce
Miami Open - Miami · 4th Round
Mar 24
Carlos Alcaraz
Miami Open - Miami · 3rd Round
Mar 22
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Miami Open - Miami · 2nd Round
Mar 20
Alex de Minaur
BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells · 2nd Round
Mar 7
Francisco Comesana
BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells · 1st Round
Mar 5
Tommy Paul
Delray Beach Open - Delray Beach · Final
Feb 22
Flavio Cobolli
Delray Beach Open - Delray Beach · Semifinals
Feb 21
Casper Ruud
Delray Beach Open - Delray Beach · Quarterfinals
Feb 20
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 39–74 matches
| Metric | Minaur | Korda |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 64% | 64% |
| Sets won | 62% | 61% |
| Games won | 54% | 54% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Minaur | Korda |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 1 | 0 |
| Grand Slam | 0 | 1 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP World Tour 250 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP World Tour 500 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP World Tour Masters 1000 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Minaur | Korda |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 3 | 0 |
| Grass | 1 | 1 |
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