Alex de Minaur vs Sebastian KordaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Alex de Minaur and Sebastian Korda have met 5 times since 2021; Alex de Minaur leads 4–1. Their first meeting came at Wimbledon - London in 2021 on grass. On hard courts Minaur leads 3–0. On grass courts they are level 1–1. Minaur has won the last 4 meetings. 1 of their meetings has been a final, with Minaur leading those 1–0. Across all meetings Minaur has taken 9 sets to Korda's 5. Their most recent meeting: Alex de Minaur won at BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | de Minaur | Korda | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Alex de Minaur | Sebastian Korda | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 68% | 25/37 | 67% | 14/21 |
| Wins a set when losing | 42% | 8/19 | 60% | 6/10 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 36% | 20/56 | 42% | 13/31 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 48% | 23/48 | 52% | 13/25 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 50% | 4/8 | 100% | 6/6 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 73% | 19/26 | 58% | 7/12 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 88% | 30/34 | 78% | 18/23 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 74% | 25/34 | 61% | 14/23 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 4 completed meetings ended in straight sets (de Minaur 2, Korda 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Minaur
🪃 Counterpuncher
Korda
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
🪃 Counterpuncher vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (48% vs 52%, 3,969 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
5 career meetings, newest first
Mar 7, 2026
BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells
H Hard · 2nd Round
Jun 16, 2024
Libema Open - 's-Hertogenbosch
G Grass · Final
Feb 13, 2024
ABN AMRO Open - Rotterdam
H Hard · 1st Round
Oct 31, 2022
Rolex Paris Masters - Paris
H Hard · 1st Round
Jun 29, 2021
Wimbledon - London
G Grass · 1st Round
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Minaur | Korda |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 14–5 | - |
| Avg odds | 1.58 | - |
| ROI % | +8.6% | - |
| Units P/L | +1.64u | - |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Minaur | Korda |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | — |
| Events | 3 | — |
| Matches | 7 | — |
| Distance | 5,722 mi · 9,208 km | — |
| Route | GBR → CHN | — |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Korda has a higher win rate against shared opponents (80% vs Minaur's 40%).
| Opponent | Minaur | Korda |
|---|---|---|
| Kamil Majchrzak | W 63 63 | W 64 46 75 |
| Flavio Cobolli | L 57 67 36 | W 76 61 |
| Zachary Svajda | W 62 57 62 64 | L 46 67 |
| Tommy Paul | L 62 36 36 | W 64 63 |
| Valentin Vacherot | L 46 63 36 | W 76 63 |
| Carlos Alcaraz | L 57 26 16 | W 63 57 64 |
| Patrick Kypson | L 16 76 67 | W 76 62 |
| Casper Ruud | L 36 36 | W 46 62 62 |
| Mackenzie McDonald | W 62 62 63 | W 64 75 |
| Ugo Humbert | W 64 63 | L 36 46 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Rei Sakamoto
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 11
Novak Djokovic
China Open - Beijing · Final
Oct 6
Hubert Hurkacz
China Open - Beijing · Semifinals
Oct 5
Andrey Rublev
China Open - Beijing · Quarterfinals
Oct 4
Quentin Halys
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Mariano Navone
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 1
Alexander Zverev
Laver Cup - London · Round Robin
Sep 26
Kamil Majchrzak
Davis Cup, Group I, 1R, AUS-POL 3-1 · Rubber 4
Sep 20
Martin Landaluce
Miami Open - Miami · 4th Round
Mar 24
Carlos Alcaraz
Miami Open - Miami · 3rd Round
Mar 22
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Miami Open - Miami · 2nd Round
Mar 20
Alex de Minaur
BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells · 2nd Round
Mar 7
Francisco Comesana
BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells · 1st Round
Mar 5
Tommy Paul
Delray Beach Open - Delray Beach · Final
Feb 22
Flavio Cobolli
Delray Beach Open - Delray Beach · Semifinals
Feb 21
Casper Ruud
Delray Beach Open - Delray Beach · Quarterfinals
Feb 20
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 32–69 matches
| Metric | Minaur | Korda |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 67% | 66% |
| Sets won | 63% | 63% |
| Games won | 54% | 54% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Minaur | Korda |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 1 | 0 |
| Grand Slam | 0 | 1 |
| ATP 500 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP 250 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 2 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Minaur | Korda |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 3 | 0 |
| Grass | 1 | 1 |
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