Alex de Minaur vs Rafael NadalPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Alex de Minaur and Rafael Nadal have met 6 times since 2018; Rafael Nadal leads 4–2. Their first meeting came at Wimbledon in 2018 on grass. On hard courts Nadal leads 2–1. On clay courts they are level 1–1. Across all meetings Minaur has taken 5 sets to Nadal's 11. Their most recent meeting: Rafael Nadal won at Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid (2024).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | de Minaur | Nadal | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Alex de Minaur | Rafael Nadal | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 68% | 25/37 | — | |
| Wins a set when losing | 42% | 8/19 | — | |
| Goes to a deciding set | 36% | 20/56 | — | |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 48% | 23/48 | — | |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 50% | 4/8 | — | |
| Tiebreak sets won | 73% | 19/26 | — | |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 88% | 30/34 | — | |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 74% | 25/34 | — | |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Small sample — read with care. Head-to-head: 2 of 4 completed meetings ended in straight sets (de Minaur 1, Nadal 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Minaur
🪃 Counterpuncher
Nadal
👑 The Complete Package
Matchup analysis
The 👑 The Complete Package archetype wins about 53% vs 🪃 Counterpuncher across 1,744 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Rafael Nadal.
The Complete Package players often use elite serve & return and high bp conversion to pressure the counterpuncher's elite bp conversion.
Previous meetings
6 career meetings, newest first
Apr 27, 2024
Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid
C Clay · 2nd Round
Apr 17, 2024
Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell - Barcelona
C Clay · 2nd Round
Jan 2, 2023
United Cup - Australia
H Hard · Round Robin
Jan 11, 2020
ATP Cup - Brisbane, Perth, Sydney
H Hard · Semifinals
Jan 11, 2019
Australian Open
H Hard · Round of 32
Jul 7, 2018
Wimbledon
G Grass · Round of 32
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Minaur | Nadal |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 14–5 | - |
| Avg odds | 1.58 | - |
| ROI % | +8.6% | - |
| Units P/L | +1.64u | - |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Minaur | Nadal |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | — |
| Events | 3 | — |
| Matches | 7 | — |
| Distance | 5,722 mi · 9,208 km | — |
| Route | GBR → CHN | — |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Rei Sakamoto
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 11
Novak Djokovic
China Open - Beijing · Final
Oct 6
Hubert Hurkacz
China Open - Beijing · Semifinals
Oct 5
Andrey Rublev
China Open - Beijing · Quarterfinals
Oct 4
Quentin Halys
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Mariano Navone
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 1
Alexander Zverev
Laver Cup - London · Round Robin
Sep 26
Kamil Majchrzak
Davis Cup, Group I, 1R, AUS-POL 3-1 · Rubber 4
Sep 20
Botic van de Zandschulp
Davis Cup, World Group, QF, NED-ESP 2-1 · Rubber 1
Nov 19
Novak Djokovic
Olympics - Paris · 2nd Round
Jul 29
Marton Fucsovics
Olympics - Paris · 1st Round
Jul 28
Nuno Borges
Nordea Open - Bastad · Final
Jul 21
Duje Ajdukovic
Nordea Open - Bastad · Semifinals
Jul 20
Mariano Navone
Nordea Open - Bastad · Quarterfinals
Jul 19
Cameron Norrie
Nordea Open - Bastad · 2nd Round
Jul 18
Leo Borg
Nordea Open - Bastad · 1st Round
Jul 16
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 69–69 matches
| Metric | Minaur | Nadal |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 67% | - |
| Sets won | 63% | - |
| Games won | 54% | - |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Minaur | Nadal |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 0 | 2 |
| ATP 500 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 0 | 1 |
| Other | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Cup | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Minaur | Nadal |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 2 |
| Clay | 1 | 1 |
| Grass | 0 | 1 |
Share this matchup
Copy the link to paste in Discord or group chats.