Alex de Minaur vs Rafael NadalPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Alex de Minaur and Rafael Nadal have met 6 times since 2018; Rafael Nadal leads 4–2. Their first meeting came at Wimbledon in 2018 on grass. On hard courts Nadal leads 2–1. On clay courts they are level 1–1. Across all meetings Minaur has taken 5 sets to Nadal's 11. Their most recent meeting: Rafael Nadal won at ATP Masters 1000 Madrid (2024).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | de Minaur | Nadal | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Alex de Minaur | Rafael Nadal | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 74% | 28/38 | — | |
| Wins a set when losing | 43% | 10/23 | — | |
| Goes to a deciding set | 33% | 20/61 | — | |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 47% | 24/51 | — | |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 56% | 5/9 | — | |
| Tiebreak sets won | 70% | 16/23 | — | |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 89% | 34/38 | — | |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 74% | 28/38 | — | |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Small sample — read with care. Head-to-head: 2 of 4 completed meetings ended in straight sets (de Minaur 1, Nadal 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Minaur
🪃 Counterpuncher
Nadal
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
🪃 Counterpuncher vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (49% vs 51%, 2,363 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
6 career meetings, newest first
Apr 27, 2024
ATP Masters 1000 Madrid
C Clay · Round of 64
Apr 17, 2024
Barcelona
C Clay · Round of 32
Jan 2, 2023
United Cup
H Hard · Round Robin
Jan 11, 2020
ATP Cup
H Hard · Semifinals
Jan 11, 2019
Australian Open
H Hard · Round of 32
Jul 7, 2018
Wimbledon
G Grass · Round of 32
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Minaur | Nadal |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 13–6 | - |
| Avg odds | 1.33 | - |
| ROI % | -16.4% | - |
| Units P/L | -3.11u | - |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Minaur | Nadal |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | — |
| Events | 3 | — |
| Matches | 6 | — |
| Distance | 1,200 mi · 1,932 km | — |
| Route | USA → CAN → USA | — |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Arthur Fils
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 19
Arthur Fery
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 17
Quentin Halys
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Cameron Norrie
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 6
James Duckworth
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Brandon Nakashima
Citi Open - Washington · Quarterfinals
Jul 31
Cruz Hewitt
Citi Open - Washington · 2nd Round
Jul 30
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Citi Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 29
Nuno Borges
Bastad · Final
Jul 21
Duje Ajdukovic
Bastad · Semifinals
Jul 20
Mariano Navone
Bastad · Quarterfinals
Jul 19
Cameron Norrie
Bastad · Round of 16
Jul 18
Leo Borg
Bastad · Round of 32
Jul 16
Alexander Zverev
Roland Garros · Round of 128
May 28
Hubert Hurkacz
ATP Masters 1000 Rome · Round of 64
May 11
Zizou Bergs
ATP Masters 1000 Rome · Round of 128
May 9
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 74–74 matches
| Metric | Minaur | Nadal |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 64% | - |
| Sets won | 62% | - |
| Games won | 54% | - |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Minaur | Nadal |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 0 | 2 |
| ATP 500 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 0 | 1 |
| Other | 1 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Minaur | Nadal |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 2 |
| Clay | 1 | 1 |
| Grass | 0 | 1 |
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