Lorenzo Musetti vs Matteo BerrettiniPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Lorenzo Musetti and Matteo Berrettini have met 3 times since 2022; Lorenzo Musetti leads 2–1. Their first meeting came at Tennis Napoli Open - Naples in 2022 on hard. 1 of their meetings has been a final, with Musetti leading those 1–0. Across all meetings Musetti has taken 4 sets to Berrettini's 2. Their most recent meeting: Lorenzo Musetti won at Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Monte-Carlo (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Musetti | Berrettini | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Lorenzo Musetti | Matteo Berrettini | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 73% | 16/22 | 65% | 13/20 |
| Wins a set when losing | 25% | 4/16 | 32% | 6/19 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 26% | 10/38 | 33% | 13/39 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 56% | 15/27 | 36% | 10/28 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 33% | 3/9 | 60% | 6/10 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 38% | 5/13 | 50% | 10/20 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 86% | 19/22 | 88% | 15/17 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 73% | 16/22 | 76% | 13/17 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Musetti 2, Berrettini 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Musetti
💥 Big Hitter
Berrettini
🤖 Servebot
Matchup analysis
💥 Big Hitter vs 🤖 Servebot is historically tight (49% vs 51%, 4,932 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Apr 10, 2025
Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Monte-Carlo
C Clay · 3rd Round
Jun 15, 2024
Boss Open - Stuttgart
G Grass · Semifinals
Oct 23, 2022
Tennis Napoli Open - Naples
H Hard · Final
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Musetti | Berrettini | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Lorenzo Musetti | Matteo Berrettini | ||
| 1 or more | 91% | 10/11 | 100% | 9/9 |
| 3 or more | 73% | 8/11 | 100% | 9/9 |
| 5 or more | 46% | 5/11 | 78% | 7/9 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/11 | 56% | 5/9 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/11 | 33% | 3/9 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/11 | 11% | 1/9 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Musetti | Berrettini |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 6–5 | 4–5 |
| Avg odds | 1.50 | 1.82 |
| ROI % | -28.7% | -25.1% |
| Units P/L | -3.16u | -2.26u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Musetti | Berrettini |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 2 |
| Events | 1 | 2 |
| Matches | 1 | 4 |
| Distance | 0 mi · 0 km | 1,092 mi · 1,758 km |
| Route | CHN | JPN → CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Berrettini has a higher win rate against shared opponents (60% vs Musetti's 50%).
| Opponent | Musetti | Berrettini |
|---|---|---|
| Stan Wawrinka | W 46 76 64 | W 76 76 60 |
| Jiri Lehecka | L 36 36 | L 46 76 36 |
| Aleksandar Vukic | W 63 57 63 | W 76 63 |
| Matteo Arnaldi | W | L 57 25 |
| Arthur Fils | L 36 46 | W 64 75 36 63 |
| Marton Fucsovics | L 57 16 | W 67 75 61 62 |
| Hubert Hurkacz | W 64 76 | L 64 36 46 |
| Valentin Vacherot | L 67 57 | L 67 46 |
| Alexander Bublik | L 67 36 | W 64 64 |
| Alexandre Muller | W 62 64 | W 64 62 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Yi Zhou
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 9
Dane Sweeny
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Arthur Fery
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 1
Frances Tiafoe
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 22
Jaime Faria
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Michael Zheng
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Daniel Altmaier
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Rafael Jodar
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Brandon Nakashima
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 9
Aleksandar Kovacevic
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 7
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Oct 1
Mariano Navone
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Stan Wawrinka
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 31
Jiri Lehecka
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Titouan Droguet
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 14
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 43–49 matches
| Metric | Musetti | Berrettini |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 60% | 57% |
| Sets won | 59% | 56% |
| Games won | 52% | 51% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Musetti | Berrettini |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 1 | 0 |
| ATP 250 | 1 | 1 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Musetti | Berrettini |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 0 |
| Clay | 1 | 0 |
| Grass | 0 | 1 |
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