Lorenzo Musetti vs Matteo BerrettiniPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Lorenzo Musetti and Matteo Berrettini have met 3 times since 2022; Lorenzo Musetti leads 2–1. Their first meeting came at Tennis Napoli Open - Naples in 2022 on hard. 1 of their meetings has been a final, with Musetti leading those 1–0. Across all meetings Musetti has taken 4 sets to Berrettini's 2. Their most recent meeting: Lorenzo Musetti won at Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Monte-Carlo (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Musetti | Berrettini | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Lorenzo Musetti | Matteo Berrettini | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 72% | 21/29 | 75% | 15/20 |
| Wins a set when losing | 24% | 4/17 | 30% | 6/20 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 26% | 12/46 | 28% | 11/40 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 59% | 20/34 | 38% | 11/29 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 30% | 3/10 | 60% | 6/10 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 47% | 7/15 | 50% | 9/18 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 90% | 26/29 | 89% | 17/19 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 72% | 21/29 | 79% | 15/19 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Musetti 2, Berrettini 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Musetti
🎯 Baseliner
Berrettini
🤖 Servebot
Matchup analysis
🎯 Baseliner vs 🤖 Servebot is historically tight (48% vs 52%, 1,749 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Apr 10, 2025
Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Monte-Carlo
C Clay · 3rd Round
Jun 15, 2024
Boss Open - Stuttgart
G Grass · Semifinals
Oct 23, 2022
Tennis Napoli Open - Naples
H Hard · Final
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Musetti | Berrettini | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Lorenzo Musetti | Matteo Berrettini | ||
| 1 or more | 88% | 7/8 | 100% | 8/8 |
| 3 or more | 63% | 5/8 | 100% | 8/8 |
| 5 or more | 25% | 2/8 | 75% | 6/8 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/8 | 38% | 3/8 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/8 | 38% | 3/8 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/8 | 25% | 2/8 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Musetti | Berrettini |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 5–3 | 4–3 |
| Avg odds | 1.62 | 1.85 |
| ROI % | -18.1% | +2.9% |
| Units P/L | -1.45u | +0.20u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Musetti | Berrettini |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 3 | 2 |
| Matches | 7 | 3 |
| Distance | 1,200 mi · 1,932 km | 712 mi · 1,146 km |
| Route | USA → CAN → USA | CAN → USA |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Across 10 shared opponents, both Musetti and Berrettini posted a 50% win rate.
| Opponent | Musetti | Berrettini |
|---|---|---|
| Jiri Lehecka | L 36 36 | L 46 76 36 |
| Aleksandar Vukic | W 63 57 63 | W 76 63 |
| Arthur Fils | L 36 46 | W 64 75 36 63 |
| Stan Wawrinka | W 46 76 64 | W 67 76 76 76 |
| Francisco Comesana | W 64 60 | W 76 57 67 64 76 |
| Marton Fucsovics | L 57 16 | W 67 75 61 62 |
| Casper Ruud | L 36 16 | L 67 26 |
| Hubert Hurkacz | W 64 76 | L 64 36 46 |
| Dino Prizmic | W 75 36 62 | L 36 46 |
| Valentin Vacherot | L 67 57 | L 67 46 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Frances Tiafoe
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 22
Jaime Faria
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Michael Zheng
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Daniel Altmaier
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Rafael Jodar
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Nicolas Mejia
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Rafael Jodar
Citi Open - Washington · Quarterfinals
Jul 31
Aleksandar Vukic
Citi Open - Washington · 2nd Round
Jul 29
Jiri Lehecka
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Titouan Droguet
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 14
Mariano Navone
National Bank Open - Montreal · 1st Round
Aug 3
Grigor Dimitrov
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 4
Arthur Fils
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 2
Stan Wawrinka
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 30
Matteo Arnaldi
Roland Garros · Quarterfinals
Jun 3
Juan Manuel Cerundolo
French Open - Paris · 4th Round
Jun 1
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 48–52 matches
| Metric | Musetti | Berrettini |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 65% | 56% |
| Sets won | 62% | 56% |
| Games won | 54% | 51% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Musetti | Berrettini |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP World Tour 250 | 1 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Musetti | Berrettini |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 0 |
| Clay | 1 | 0 |
| Grass | 0 | 1 |
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