Juan Pablo Varillas vs Sebastian BaezPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Juan Pablo Varillas and Sebastian Baez have met 10 times since 2019; Sebastian Baez leads 8–2. Their first meeting came at Montevideo in 2019 on clay. On clay courts Baez leads 8–2. Baez has won the last 5 meetings. 2 of their meetings have been finals, split 1–1. Across all meetings Varillas has taken 6 sets to Baez's 17. Their most recent meeting: Sebastian Baez won at Movistar Chile Open - Santiago (2024).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Pablo Varillas | Baez | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Juan Pablo Varillas | Sebastian Baez | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 62% | 24/39 | 76% | 26/34 |
| Wins a set when losing | 30% | 8/27 | 22% | 6/27 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 35% | 23/66 | 23% | 14/61 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 25% | 5/20 | 61% | 17/28 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 75% | 12/16 | 52% | 15/29 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 52% | 14/27 | 58% | 7/12 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 89% | 33/37 | 83% | 29/35 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 65% | 24/37 | 74% | 26/35 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 7 of 10 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Pablo Varillas 1, Baez 6).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Varillas
🪃 Counterpuncher
Baez
🎾 All-Court
Matchup analysis
🪃 Counterpuncher vs 🎾 All-Court is historically tight (49% vs 51%, 878 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
10 career meetings, newest first
Feb 29, 2024
Movistar Chile Open - Santiago
C Clay · 2nd Round
May 10, 2023
Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome
C Clay · 1st Round
Feb 23, 2023
Rio Open - Rio de Janeiro
C Clay · 2nd Round
Feb 22, 2022
Chile Dove Men+Care Open - Santiago
C Clay · 1st Round
Oct 23, 2021
Buenos Aires Challenger
C Clay · Quarterfinals
Oct 10, 2021
Santiago 2 Challenger
C Clay · Final
Jul 1, 2021
Hamburg
C Clay · 2nd Round Qualifying
May 15, 2021
Zagreb Challenger
C Clay · Final
Mar 20, 2021
Santiago Challenger
C Clay · Semifinals
Nov 6, 2019
Montevideo
C Clay · Round of 32
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Varillas | Baez | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Juan Pablo Varillas | Sebastian Baez | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 17/17 | 65% | 13/20 |
| 3 or more | 53% | 9/17 | 30% | 6/20 |
| 5 or more | 41% | 7/17 | 15% | 3/20 |
| 10 or more | 6% | 1/17 | 0% | 0/20 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/17 | 0% | 0/20 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/17 | 0% | 0/20 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Varillas | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 12–6 | 9–9 |
| Avg odds | 2.12 | 2.40 |
| ROI % | +32.2% | -11.4% |
| Units P/L | +5.79u | -2.05u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Varillas | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 1 |
| Events | 1 | 3 |
| Matches | 3 | 4 |
| Distance | 0 mi · 0 km | 1,611 mi · 2,592 km |
| Route | ARG | CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Across 3 shared opponents, both Varillas and Baez posted a 0% win rate.
| Opponent | Varillas | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Jan-Lennard Struff | L 46 26 | L 16 67 64 62 57 |
| Roman Andres Burruchaga | L 26 36 | L 62 57 26 02 |
| Alvaro Guillen Meza | L 63 26 46 | L 67 46 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Felipe Meligeni Alves
Antofagasta Challenger · 1st Round
Oct 6
Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo
Buenos Aires Challenger · Quarterfinals
Sep 25
Murkel Dellien
Buenos Aires Challenger · 2nd Round
Sep 23
Tomas Farjat
Buenos Aires Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 22
Hernando Jose Escurra Isnardi
Davis Cup, Group I, 1R, PER-PAR 3-2 · Rubber 5
Sep 19
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
Davis Cup, Group I, 1R, PER-PAR 3-2 · Rubber 2
Sep 18
Thiago Seyboth Wild
Genoa Challenger · Quarterfinals
Sep 11
Francesco Passaro
Genoa Challenger · 2nd Round
Sep 10
Valentin Vacherot
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Marcos Giron
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 8
Juncheng Shang
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 1
Jenson Brooksby
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · 1st Round
Sep 23
Brandon Nakashima
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 31
Juan Manuel Cerundolo
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 3rd Round
Aug 26
Hugo Grenier
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 2nd Round
Aug 26
Hubert Hurkacz
Cancun Challenger · Final
Aug 24
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 66–66 matches
| Metric | Varillas | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 59% | 53% |
| Sets won | 55% | 52% |
| Games won | 52% | 49% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Varillas | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 1 | 1 |
| ATP 500 | 1 | 1 |
| ATP 250 | 0 | 2 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP Challenger Tour | 1 | 4 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Varillas | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Clay | 2 | 8 |
Share this matchup
Copy the link to paste in Discord or group chats.