Juan Pablo Varillas vs Sebastian BaezPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Juan Pablo Varillas and Sebastian Baez have met 10 times since 2019; Sebastian Baez leads 8–2. Their first meeting came at Montevideo in 2019 on clay. On clay courts Baez leads 8–2. Baez has won the last 5 meetings. 2 of their meetings have been finals, split 1–1. Across all meetings Varillas has taken 6 sets to Baez's 17. Their most recent meeting: Sebastian Baez won at Movistar Chile Open - Santiago (2024).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Pablo Varillas | Baez | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Juan Pablo Varillas | Sebastian Baez | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 72% | 26/36 | 76% | 26/34 |
| Wins a set when losing | 30% | 8/27 | 19% | 5/26 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 29% | 18/63 | 22% | 13/60 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 35% | 6/17 | 63% | 17/27 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 91% | 10/11 | 52% | 15/29 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 43% | 10/23 | 64% | 7/11 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 89% | 34/38 | 85% | 29/34 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 68% | 26/38 | 76% | 26/34 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 7 of 10 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Pablo Varillas 1, Baez 6).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Varillas
🪃 Counterpuncher
Baez
🎾 All-Court
Matchup analysis
The 🎾 All-Court archetype wins about 55% vs 🪃 Counterpuncher across 682 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Sebastian Baez.
All-Court players often use tactical versatility and net approach ability to pressure the counterpuncher's elite bp conversion.
Previous meetings
10 career meetings, newest first
Feb 29, 2024
Movistar Chile Open - Santiago
C Clay · 2nd Round
May 10, 2023
Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome
C Clay · 1st Round
Feb 23, 2023
Rio Open - Rio de Janeiro
C Clay · 2nd Round
Feb 22, 2022
Chile Dove Men+Care Open - Santiago
C Clay · 1st Round
Oct 23, 2021
Buenos Aires Challenger
C Clay · Quarterfinals
Oct 10, 2021
Santiago 2 Challenger
C Clay · Final
Jul 1, 2021
Hamburg
C Clay · 2nd Round Qualifying
May 15, 2021
Zagreb Challenger
C Clay · Final
Mar 20, 2021
Santiago Challenger
C Clay · Semifinals
Nov 6, 2019
Montevideo
C Clay · Round of 32
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Varillas | Baez | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Juan Pablo Varillas | Sebastian Baez | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 10/10 | 76% | 16/21 |
| 3 or more | 70% | 7/10 | 29% | 6/21 |
| 5 or more | 50% | 5/10 | 10% | 2/21 |
| 10 or more | 10% | 1/10 | 0% | 0/21 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/10 | 0% | 0/21 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/10 | 0% | 0/21 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Varillas | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 5–2 | 14–6 |
| Avg odds | 2.21 | 1.90 |
| ROI % | +49.5% | +8.8% |
| Units P/L | +3.47u | +1.76u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Varillas | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 3 |
| Events | 1 | 4 |
| Matches | 2 | 9 |
| Distance | 0 mi · 0 km | 3,066 mi · 4,934 km |
| Route | SMR | CAN → USA → MEX → USA |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Baez has a higher win rate against shared opponents (25% vs Varillas's 0%).
| Opponent | Varillas | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Jan-Lennard Struff | L 46 26 | L 16 67 64 62 57 |
| Roman Andres Burruchaga | L 26 36 | L 62 57 26 02 |
| Alvaro Guillen Meza | L 63 26 46 | L 67 46 |
| Emilio Nava | L 36 26 | W 46 75 63 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Mili Poljicak
San Marino Challenger · Semifinals
Aug 1
Timofey Skatov
San Marino Challenger · Quarterfinals
Jul 31
Francesco Maestrelli
San Marino Challenger · 2nd Round
Jul 30
Jacopo Vasami
San Marino Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 28
Nicolas Mejia
Bogota Challenger · Semifinals
Jul 11
Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida
Bogota Challenger · Quarterfinals
Jul 10
Luis Carlos Alvarez
Bogota Challenger · 2nd Round
Jul 8
Bruno Fernandez
Bogota Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 7
Hugo Grenier
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 2nd Round
Aug 26
Hubert Hurkacz
Cancun Challenger · Final
Aug 24
Lloyd Harris
Cancun Challenger · Semifinals
Aug 23
Chak Pong Marco Lam
Cancun Challenger · Quarterfinals
Aug 22
Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez
Cancun Challenger · 2nd Round
Aug 21
Learner Tien
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Grigor Dimitrov
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 14
Zizou Bergs
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 63–64 matches
| Metric | Varillas | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 57% | 55% |
| Sets won | 56% | 53% |
| Games won | 52% | 50% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Varillas | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 1 | 1 |
| ATP 500 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP World Tour 250 | 0 | 2 |
| ATP World Tour Masters 1000 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP World Tour 500 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP Challenger Tour | 1 | 4 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Varillas | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Clay | 2 | 8 |
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