Jasmine Paolini vs Karolina MuchovaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇮🇹Jasmine Paolini
#20 · 30 yrs · Right-Handed
8w3 meetings · sets 1–6
🇨🇿Karolina Muchova
#7 · 29 yrs · Right-Handed
7wJasmine Paolini and Karolina Muchova have met 3 times since 2021; Karolina Muchova leads 3–0. Their first meeting came at Gippsland Trophy - Melbourne in 2021 on hard. On hard courts Muchova leads 3–0. Muchova has won the last 3 meetings. Across all meetings Paolini has taken 1 sets to Muchova's 6. Their most recent meeting: Karolina Muchova won at United Cup - Australia (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Paolini | Muchova | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Jasmine Paolini | Karolina Muchova | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 54% | 14/26 | 63% | 25/40 |
| Wins a set when losing | 26% | 5/19 | 38% | 5/13 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 38% | 17/45 | 38% | 20/53 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 36% | 12/33 | 53% | 18/34 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 50% | 6/12 | 69% | 11/16 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 38% | 3/8 | 67% | 6/9 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 81% | 17/21 | 91% | 31/34 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 67% | 14/21 | 74% | 25/34 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Paolini 0, Muchova 2).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Paolini
🏹 Frontrunner
Muchova
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
🏹 Frontrunner vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (48% vs 52%, 1,181 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Jan 3, 2025
United Cup - Australia
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Sep 2, 2024
U.S. Open - New York
H Hard · 4th Round
Feb 3, 2021
Gippsland Trophy - Melbourne
H Hard · 3rd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Paolini | Muchova | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Jasmine Paolini | Karolina Muchova | ||
| 1 or more | 50% | 3/6 | 100% | 12/12 |
| 3 or more | 17% | 1/6 | 75% | 9/12 |
| 5 or more | 0% | 0/6 | 50% | 6/12 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/6 | 8% | 1/12 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/6 | 0% | 0/12 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/6 | 0% | 0/12 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Paolini | Muchova |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 4–2 | 8–2 |
| Avg odds | 2.18 | 1.51 |
| ROI % | +35.3% | +16.3% |
| Units P/L | +2.12u | +1.63u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Muchova has a higher win rate against shared opponents (80% vs Paolini's 60%).
| Opponent | Paolini | Muchova |
|---|---|---|
| Coco Gauff | L 36 26 | W 62 16 76 |
| Marta Kostyuk | L 36 26 | W 26 62 64 |
| Alexandra Eala | W 64 46 63 | W 60 62 |
| Maria Sakkari | W 61 62 | W 36 64 61 |
| Elise Mertens | L 64 67 36 | W 16 63 60 |
| Anastasia Potapova | W 67 62 63 | L 36 26 |
| Elena Rybakina | L 36 26 | L 57 16 |
| Elina Svitolina | W 36 64 64 | W 64 26 64 |
| Aliaksandra Sasnovich | W 61 62 | W 62 64 |
| Katie Boulter | W 06 63 63 | W 63 75 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Marta Kostyuk
Wimbledon - London · Quarterfinals
Jul 8
Alexandra Eala
Wimbledon - London · 4th Round
Jul 6
Maria Sakkari
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 4
Viktorija Golubic
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 2
Robin Montgomery
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 30
Tatjana Maria
Lexus Eastbourne Open - Eastbourne · 1st Round
Jun 23
Solana Sierra
French Open - Paris · 2nd Round
May 27
Dayana Yastremska
French Open - Paris · 1st Round
May 25
Linda Noskova
Wimbledon - London · Final
Jul 11
Coco Gauff
Wimbledon - London · Semifinals
Jul 9
Naomi Osaka
Wimbledon - London · Quarterfinals
Jul 7
Barbora Krejcikova
Wimbledon - London · 4th Round
Jul 5
Mananchaya Sawangkaew
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 3
Shuai Zhang
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 1
Anastasia Zakharova
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 29
Elena Gabriela Ruse
Bad Homburg Open - Bad Homburg · Semifinals
Jun 26
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 45–53 matches
| Metric | Paolini | Muchova |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 58% | 75% |
| Sets won | 53% | 67% |
| Games won | 52% | 55% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Paolini | Muchova |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 0 | 1 |
| WTA 500 | 0 | 2 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Paolini | Muchova |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 3 |
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