Jasmine Paolini vs Karolina MuchovaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇮🇹Jasmine Paolini
#33 · 30 yrs · Right-Handed
3 meetings · sets 1–6
🇨🇿Karolina Muchova
#7 · 29 yrs · Right-Handed
Jasmine Paolini and Karolina Muchova have met 3 times since 2021; Karolina Muchova leads 3–0. Their first meeting came at Gippsland Trophy - Melbourne in 2021 on hard. On hard courts Muchova leads 3–0. Muchova has won the last 3 meetings. Across all meetings Paolini has taken 1 sets to Muchova's 6. Their most recent meeting: Karolina Muchova won at United Cup - Australia (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Paolini | Muchova | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Jasmine Paolini | Karolina Muchova | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 50% | 10/20 | 66% | 27/41 |
| Wins a set when losing | 26% | 5/19 | 31% | 4/13 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 38% | 15/39 | 33% | 18/54 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 33% | 10/30 | 53% | 20/38 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 33% | 3/9 | 69% | 9/13 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 14% | 1/7 | 100% | 8/8 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 78% | 14/18 | 94% | 33/35 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 56% | 10/18 | 77% | 27/35 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Paolini 0, Muchova 2).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Paolini
🏹 Frontrunner
Muchova
🤖 Servebot
Matchup analysis
🏹 Frontrunner vs 🤖 Servebot is historically tight (52% vs 48%, 728 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Jan 3, 2025
United Cup - Australia
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Sep 2, 2024
U.S. Open - New York
H Hard · 4th Round
Feb 3, 2021
Gippsland Trophy - Melbourne
H Hard · 3rd Round
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Paolini | Muchova |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 2–2 | 5–2 |
| Avg odds | 1.66 | 1.27 |
| ROI % | -36.5% | -10.1% |
| Units P/L | -1.46u | -0.71u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Paolini | Muchova |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 1 |
| Events | 1 | 1 |
| Matches | 1 | 4 |
| Distance | 0 mi · 0 km | 0 mi · 0 km |
| Route | ROU | ROU |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Muchova has a higher win rate against shared opponents (70% vs Paolini's 60%).
| Opponent | Paolini | Muchova |
|---|---|---|
| Katie Boulter | W 06 63 63 | W 76 61 |
| Coco Gauff | L 36 26 | W 62 16 76 |
| Alexandra Eala | W 64 46 63 | W 60 62 |
| Maria Sakkari | W 61 62 | W 36 64 61 |
| Elise Mertens | L 64 67 36 | W 16 63 60 |
| Anastasia Potapova | W 67 62 63 | L 36 26 |
| Elena Rybakina | L 36 26 | L 57 16 |
| Aliaksandra Sasnovich | W 61 62 | W 62 64 |
| Ajla Tomljanovic | W 75 57 61 | W 46 61 76 |
| Aryna Sabalenka | L 36 16 | L 36 46 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Daria Snigur
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 2
Sorana Cirstea
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 4
Lucrezia Stefanini
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 2
Veronika Erjavec
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 30
Marta Kostyuk
Wimbledon - London · Quarterfinals
Jul 8
Alexandra Eala
Wimbledon - London · 4th Round
Jul 6
Maria Sakkari
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 4
Viktorija Golubic
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 2
Nikola Bartunkova
China Open - Beijing · Quarterfinals
Oct 8
Naomi Osaka
China Open - Beijing · 4th Round
Oct 6
Liudmila Samsonova
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round
Oct 4
Katie Boulter
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 2
Emma Navarro
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 4
Katie Boulter
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 2
Sinja Kraus
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 31
Linda Noskova
Wimbledon - London · Final
Jul 11
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 39–54 matches
| Metric | Paolini | Muchova |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 51% | 76% |
| Sets won | 48% | 68% |
| Games won | 50% | 55% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Paolini | Muchova |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 0 | 1 |
| WTA 500 | 0 | 2 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Paolini | Muchova |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 3 |
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