Iga Swiatek vs Jasmine PaoliniPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇵🇱Iga Swiatek
#8 · 25 yrs · Right-Handed
6 meetings · sets 10–3
🇮🇹Jasmine Paolini
#20 · 30 yrs · Right-Handed
8wIga Swiatek and Jasmine Paolini have met 6 times since 2022; Iga Swiatek leads 5–1. Their first meeting came at U.S. Open - New York in 2022 on hard. On hard courts Swiatek leads 3–1. 2 of their meetings have been finals, with Swiatek leading those 2–0. Across all meetings Swiatek has taken 10 sets to Paolini's 3. Their most recent meeting: Jasmine Paolini won at Wuhan Open - Wuhan (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Swiatek | Paolini | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Iga Swiatek | Jasmine Paolini | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 80% | 35/44 | 54% | 14/26 |
| Wins a set when losing | 65% | 11/17 | 26% | 5/19 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 33% | 20/61 | 38% | 17/45 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 58% | 34/59 | 36% | 12/33 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 0% | 0/1 | 50% | 6/12 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 75% | 6/8 | 38% | 3/8 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 87% | 39/45 | 81% | 17/21 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 78% | 35/45 | 67% | 14/21 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 5 of 6 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Swiatek 4, Paolini 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Swiatek
👑 The Complete Package
Paolini
🏹 Frontrunner
Matchup analysis
👑 The Complete Package vs 🏹 Frontrunner is historically tight (50% vs 50%, 821 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
6 career meetings, newest first
Oct 10, 2025
Wuhan Open - Wuhan
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Aug 18, 2025
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati
H Hard · Final
Jun 27, 2025
Bad Homburg Open - Bad Homburg
G Grass · Semifinals
Nov 18, 2024
Billie Jean King Cup, Finals
H Hard · Rubber 2
Jun 8, 2024
French Open - Paris
C Clay · Final
Aug 30, 2022
U.S. Open - New York
H Hard · 1st Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Swiatek | Paolini | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Iga Swiatek | Jasmine Paolini | ||
| 1 or more | 64% | 9/14 | 50% | 3/6 |
| 3 or more | 7% | 1/14 | 17% | 1/6 |
| 5 or more | 7% | 1/14 | 0% | 0/6 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/14 | 0% | 0/6 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/14 | 0% | 0/6 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/14 | 0% | 0/6 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Swiatek | Paolini |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 10–3 | 4–2 |
| Avg odds | 1.24 | 2.18 |
| ROI % | -6.7% | +35.3% |
| Units P/L | -0.87u | +2.12u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Swiatek | Paolini |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | — |
| Events | 2 | — |
| Matches | 9 | — |
| Distance | 411 mi · 662 km | — |
| Route | CAN → POL | — |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Across 10 shared opponents, both Swiatek and Paolini posted a 70% win rate.
| Opponent | Swiatek | Paolini |
|---|---|---|
| Jessica Pegula | L 57 64 46 | L 26 36 |
| Maria Sakkari | W 46 61 61 | W 61 62 |
| Elina Svitolina | W 63 16 63 | W 36 64 64 |
| Marta Kostyuk | W 36 61 62 | L 36 26 |
| Viktorija Golubic | W 62 61 | W 76 64 |
| Alexandra Eala | L 67 26 | W 64 46 63 |
| Taylor Townsend | W 61 26 63 | W 63 16 62 |
| Laura Siegemund | W 62 63 | W 36 62 64 |
| Elena Rybakina | L 57 16 | L 36 26 |
| Marie Bouzkova | W 62 63 | W 62 75 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Jessica Pegula
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Semifinals
Aug 22
Diane Parry
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 19
Maria Sakkari
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 17
Emiliana Arango
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Elina Svitolina
National Bank Open - Toronto · Semifinals
Aug 13
Diana Shnaider
National Bank Open - Toronto · Quarterfinals
Aug 11
Marta Kostyuk
National Bank Open - Toronto · 4th Round
Aug 8
Viktorija Golubic
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 6
Marta Kostyuk
Wimbledon - London · Quarterfinals
Jul 8
Alexandra Eala
Wimbledon - London · 4th Round
Jul 6
Maria Sakkari
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 4
Viktorija Golubic
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 2
Robin Montgomery
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 30
Tatjana Maria
Lexus Eastbourne Open - Eastbourne · 1st Round
Jun 23
Solana Sierra
French Open - Paris · 2nd Round
May 27
Dayana Yastremska
French Open - Paris · 1st Round
May 25
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 45–61 matches
| Metric | Swiatek | Paolini |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 72% | 58% |
| Sets won | 70% | 53% |
| Games won | 60% | 52% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Swiatek | Paolini |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 2 | 0 |
| Grand Slam | 2 | 0 |
| WTA 500 | 1 | 0 |
| WTA 1000 | 1 | 1 |
| Other | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Swiatek | Paolini |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 3 | 1 |
| Clay | 1 | 0 |
| Grass | 1 | 0 |
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