Iga Swiatek vs Jasmine PaoliniPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇵🇱Iga Swiatek
#9 · 25 yrs · Right-Handed
6 meetings · sets 10–3
🇮🇹Jasmine Paolini
#33 · 30 yrs · Right-Handed
Iga Swiatek and Jasmine Paolini have met 6 times since 2022; Iga Swiatek leads 5–1. Their first meeting came at U.S. Open - New York in 2022 on hard. On hard courts Swiatek leads 3–1. 2 of their meetings have been finals, with Swiatek leading those 2–0. Across all meetings Swiatek has taken 10 sets to Paolini's 3. Their most recent meeting: Jasmine Paolini won at Wuhan Open - Wuhan (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Swiatek | Paolini | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Iga Swiatek | Jasmine Paolini | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 79% | 33/42 | 50% | 10/20 |
| Wins a set when losing | 63% | 10/16 | 26% | 5/19 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 33% | 19/58 | 38% | 15/39 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 57% | 32/56 | 33% | 10/30 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 0% | 0/1 | 33% | 3/9 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 67% | 6/9 | 14% | 1/7 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 86% | 37/43 | 78% | 14/18 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 77% | 33/43 | 56% | 10/18 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 5 of 6 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Swiatek 4, Paolini 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Swiatek
👑 The Complete Package
Paolini
🏹 Frontrunner
Matchup analysis
👑 The Complete Package vs 🏹 Frontrunner is historically tight (49% vs 51%, 978 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
6 career meetings, newest first
Oct 10, 2025
Wuhan Open - Wuhan
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Aug 18, 2025
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati
H Hard · Final
Jun 27, 2025
Bad Homburg Open - Bad Homburg
G Grass · Semifinals
Nov 18, 2024
Billie Jean King Cup, Finals
H Hard · Rubber 2
Jun 8, 2024
French Open - Paris
C Clay · Final
Aug 30, 2022
U.S. Open - New York
H Hard · 1st Round
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Swiatek | Paolini |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 15–3 | 2–2 |
| Avg odds | 1.22 | 1.66 |
| ROI % | +1.3% | -36.5% |
| Units P/L | +0.24u | -1.46u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Swiatek | Paolini |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 1 |
| Events | 1 | 1 |
| Matches | 4 | 1 |
| Distance | 0 mi · 0 km | 0 mi · 0 km |
| Route | ROU | ROU |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Swiatek has a higher win rate against shared opponents (70% vs Paolini's 40%).
| Opponent | Swiatek | Paolini |
|---|---|---|
| Elise Mertens | L 67 36 | L 64 67 36 |
| Iva Jovic | W 61 63 | L 26 67 |
| Daria Snigur | W 61 62 | L 63 67 26 |
| Jessica Pegula | L 57 64 46 | L 26 36 |
| Elena Rybakina | W | L 36 26 |
| Maria Sakkari | W 46 61 61 | W 61 62 |
| Marta Kostyuk | W 36 61 62 | L 36 26 |
| Viktorija Golubic | W 62 61 | W 76 64 |
| Alexandra Eala | L 67 26 | W 64 46 63 |
| Taylor Townsend | W 61 26 63 | W 63 16 62 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Elise Mertens
China Open - Beijing · Quarterfinals
Oct 9
Iva Jovic
China Open - Beijing · 4th Round
Oct 7
Donna Vekic
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round
Oct 5
Xinyu Gao
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Qinwen Zheng
U.S. Open - New York · 4th Round
Sep 7
Marie Bouzkova
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 5
Nadia Podoroska
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Xiyu Wang
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 1
Daria Snigur
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 2
Sorana Cirstea
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 4
Lucrezia Stefanini
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 2
Veronika Erjavec
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 30
Marta Kostyuk
Wimbledon - London · Quarterfinals
Jul 8
Alexandra Eala
Wimbledon - London · 4th Round
Jul 6
Maria Sakkari
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 4
Viktorija Golubic
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 2
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 39–58 matches
| Metric | Swiatek | Paolini |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 72% | 51% |
| Sets won | 70% | 48% |
| Games won | 60% | 50% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Swiatek | Paolini |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 2 | 0 |
| Grand Slam | 2 | 0 |
| WTA 500 | 1 | 0 |
| WTA 1000 | 1 | 1 |
| Other | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Swiatek | Paolini |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 3 | 1 |
| Clay | 1 | 0 |
| Grass | 1 | 0 |
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