Aryna Sabalenka vs Jasmine PaoliniPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇧🇾Aryna Sabalenka
#2 · 28 yrs · Right-Handed
7 meetings · sets 13–2
🇮🇹Jasmine Paolini
#33 · 30 yrs · Right-Handed
Aryna Sabalenka and Jasmine Paolini have met 7 times since 2020; Aryna Sabalenka leads 6–1. Their first meeting came at Upper Austria Ladies Linz - Linz in 2020 on hard. On hard courts Sabalenka leads 5–1. Sabalenka has won the last 5 meetings. Across all meetings Sabalenka has taken 13 sets to Paolini's 2. Their most recent meeting: Aryna Sabalenka won at WTA Finals - Riyadh (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Sabalenka | Paolini | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Aryna Sabalenka | Jasmine Paolini | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 86% | 44/51 | 50% | 10/20 |
| Wins a set when losing | 64% | 7/11 | 26% | 5/19 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 23% | 14/62 | 38% | 15/39 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 70% | 42/60 | 33% | 10/30 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | — | 33% | 3/9 | |
| Tiebreak sets won | 68% | 13/19 | 14% | 1/7 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 94% | 48/51 | 78% | 14/18 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 86% | 44/51 | 56% | 10/18 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 6 of 7 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Sabalenka 6, Paolini 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Sabalenka
💥 Big Hitter
Paolini
🏹 Frontrunner
Matchup analysis
💥 Big Hitter vs 🏹 Frontrunner is historically tight (50% vs 50%, 1,247 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
7 career meetings, newest first
Nov 2, 2025
WTA Finals - Riyadh
H Hard · Round Robin
Apr 20, 2025
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix - Stuttgart
C Clay · Semifinals
Mar 27, 2025
Miami Open - Miami
H Hard · Semifinals
Nov 4, 2024
WTA Finals - Riyadh
H Hard · Round Robin
Oct 5, 2023
China Open - Beijing
H Hard · 3rd Round
Mar 12, 2022
BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells
H Hard · 2nd Round
Nov 10, 2020
Upper Austria Ladies Linz - Linz
H Hard · 1st Round
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Sabalenka | Paolini |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 10–4 | 2–2 |
| Avg odds | 1.17 | 1.66 |
| ROI % | -18.6% | -36.5% |
| Units P/L | -2.61u | -1.46u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Sabalenka | Paolini |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 1 |
| Events | 1 | 1 |
| Matches | 2 | 1 |
| Distance | 0 mi · 0 km | 0 mi · 0 km |
| Route | ROU | ROU |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Sabalenka has a higher win rate against shared opponents (70% vs Paolini's 20%).
| Opponent | Sabalenka | Paolini |
|---|---|---|
| Elena Rybakina | L 46 75 26 | L 36 26 |
| Jessica Pegula | W 75 62 | L 26 36 |
| Taylor Townsend | W 64 63 | W 63 16 62 |
| Sorana Cirstea | L 62 36 57 | L 36 36 |
| Talia Gibson | W 62 76 | L 57 62 16 |
| Marta Kostyuk | W 64 63 | L 36 26 |
| Jelena Ostapenko | W 64 64 | L 75 26 57 |
| Hailey Baptiste | L 62 26 67 | L 57 36 |
| Himeno Sakatsume | W 64 62 | W 63 61 |
| Coco Gauff | W 62 46 63 | L 36 26 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Nikola Bartunkova
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round
Oct 4
Renata Zarazua
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 2
Elena Rybakina
U.S. Open - New York · Final
Sep 12
Jessica Pegula
U.S. Open - New York · Semifinals
Sep 10
Linda Noskova
U.S. Open - New York · Quarterfinals
Sep 8
Taylor Townsend
U.S. Open - New York · 4th Round
Sep 6
Kamilla Rakhimova
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 4
Polina Iatcenko
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Daria Snigur
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 2
Sorana Cirstea
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 4
Lucrezia Stefanini
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 2
Veronika Erjavec
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 30
Marta Kostyuk
Wimbledon - London · Quarterfinals
Jul 8
Alexandra Eala
Wimbledon - London · 4th Round
Jul 6
Maria Sakkari
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 4
Viktorija Golubic
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 2
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 39–62 matches
| Metric | Sabalenka | Paolini |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 82% | 51% |
| Sets won | 79% | 48% |
| Games won | 59% | 50% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Sabalenka | Paolini |
|---|---|---|
| WTA Finals | 2 | 0 |
| WTA 500 | 1 | 0 |
| WTA 1000 | 2 | 1 |
| Other | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Sabalenka | Paolini |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 5 | 1 |
| Clay | 1 | 0 |
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