Aryna Sabalenka vs Jasmine PaoliniPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇧🇾Aryna Sabalenka
#1 · 28 yrs · Right-Handed
7 meetings · sets 13–2
🇮🇹Jasmine Paolini
#20 · 30 yrs · Right-Handed
8wAryna Sabalenka and Jasmine Paolini have met 7 times since 2020; Aryna Sabalenka leads 6–1. Their first meeting came at Upper Austria Ladies Linz - Linz in 2020 on hard. On hard courts Sabalenka leads 5–1. Sabalenka has won the last 5 meetings. Across all meetings Sabalenka has taken 13 sets to Paolini's 2. Their most recent meeting: Aryna Sabalenka won at WTA Finals - Riyadh (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Sabalenka | Paolini | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Aryna Sabalenka | Jasmine Paolini | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 84% | 42/50 | 54% | 14/26 |
| Wins a set when losing | 70% | 7/10 | 26% | 5/19 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 25% | 15/60 | 38% | 17/45 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 69% | 41/59 | 36% | 12/33 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | — | 50% | 6/12 | |
| Tiebreak sets won | 63% | 12/19 | 38% | 3/8 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 92% | 45/49 | 81% | 17/21 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 86% | 42/49 | 67% | 14/21 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 6 of 7 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Sabalenka 6, Paolini 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Sabalenka
💥 Big Hitter
Paolini
🏹 Frontrunner
Matchup analysis
💥 Big Hitter vs 🏹 Frontrunner is historically tight (52% vs 48%, 1,181 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
7 career meetings, newest first
Nov 2, 2025
WTA Finals - Riyadh
H Hard · Round Robin
Apr 20, 2025
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix - Stuttgart
C Clay · Semifinals
Mar 27, 2025
Miami Open - Miami
H Hard · Semifinals
Nov 4, 2024
WTA Finals - Riyadh
H Hard · Round Robin
Oct 5, 2023
China Open - Beijing
H Hard · 3rd Round
Mar 12, 2022
BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells
H Hard · 2nd Round
Nov 10, 2020
Upper Austria Ladies Linz - Linz
H Hard · 1st Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Sabalenka | Paolini | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Aryna Sabalenka | Jasmine Paolini | ||
| 1 or more | 93% | 14/15 | 50% | 3/6 |
| 3 or more | 87% | 13/15 | 17% | 1/6 |
| 5 or more | 73% | 11/15 | 0% | 0/6 |
| 10 or more | 20% | 3/15 | 0% | 0/6 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/6 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/6 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Sabalenka | Paolini |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 11–5 | 4–2 |
| Avg odds | 1.16 | 2.18 |
| ROI % | -23.4% | +35.3% |
| Units P/L | -3.75u | +2.12u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Sabalenka | Paolini |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | — |
| Events | 2 | — |
| Matches | 5 | — |
| Distance | 411 mi · 662 km | — |
| Route | CAN → POL | — |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Sabalenka has a higher win rate against shared opponents (80% vs Paolini's 20%).
| Opponent | Sabalenka | Paolini |
|---|---|---|
| Talia Gibson | W 62 76 | L 57 62 16 |
| Marta Kostyuk | W 64 63 | L 36 26 |
| Jelena Ostapenko | W 64 64 | L 75 26 57 |
| Jessica Pegula | L 46 76 06 | L 26 36 |
| Hailey Baptiste | L 62 26 67 | L 57 36 |
| Himeno Sakatsume | W 64 62 | W 63 61 |
| Coco Gauff | W 62 46 63 | L 36 26 |
| Elena Rybakina | W 64 63 | L 36 26 |
| Anastasia Potapova | W 76 76 | W 67 62 63 |
| Cristina Bucsa | W 60 61 | L 57 46 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Sara Bejlek
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Xinyu Wang
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 19
Talia Gibson
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Ekaterina Alexandrova
National Bank Open - Toronto · 4th Round
Aug 9
Shuai Zhang
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Moyuka Uchijima
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Naomi Osaka
Wimbledon - London · 4th Round
Jul 5
Jelena Ostapenko
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 3
Marta Kostyuk
Wimbledon - London · Quarterfinals
Jul 8
Alexandra Eala
Wimbledon - London · 4th Round
Jul 6
Maria Sakkari
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 4
Viktorija Golubic
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 2
Robin Montgomery
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 30
Tatjana Maria
Lexus Eastbourne Open - Eastbourne · 1st Round
Jun 23
Solana Sierra
French Open - Paris · 2nd Round
May 27
Dayana Yastremska
French Open - Paris · 1st Round
May 25
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 45–60 matches
| Metric | Sabalenka | Paolini |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 83% | 58% |
| Sets won | 79% | 53% |
| Games won | 59% | 52% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Sabalenka | Paolini |
|---|---|---|
| WTA Finals | 2 | 0 |
| WTA 500 | 1 | 0 |
| WTA 1000 | 2 | 1 |
| Other | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Sabalenka | Paolini |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 5 | 1 |
| Clay | 1 | 0 |
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