Francisco Cerundolo vs Sebastian BaezPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Francisco Cerundolo and Sebastian Baez have met 4 times since 2021; Sebastian Baez leads 3–1. Their first meeting came at Concepcion Challenger in 2021 on clay. On clay courts Baez leads 3–1. 2 of their meetings have been finals, split 1–1. Across all meetings Cerundolo has taken 4 sets to Baez's 6. Their most recent meeting: Sebastian Baez won at Rio Open - Rio de Janeiro (2024).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Cerundolo | Baez | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Francisco Cerundolo | Sebastian Baez | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 73% | 22/30 | 76% | 26/34 |
| Wins a set when losing | 33% | 6/18 | 23% | 6/26 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 29% | 14/48 | 23% | 14/60 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 63% | 17/27 | 61% | 17/28 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 55% | 11/20 | 54% | 15/28 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 47% | 7/15 | 58% | 7/12 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 84% | 27/32 | 83% | 29/35 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 69% | 22/32 | 74% | 26/35 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 4 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Cerundolo 1, Baez 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Cerundolo
🪃 Counterpuncher
Baez
🎾 All-Court
Matchup analysis
🪃 Counterpuncher vs 🎾 All-Court is historically tight (49% vs 51%, 878 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
4 career meetings, newest first
Feb 24, 2024
Rio Open - Rio de Janeiro
C Clay · Semifinals
Jul 17, 2022
Nordea Open - Bastad
C Clay · Final
Nov 20, 2021
Campinas Challenger
C Clay · Semifinals
Feb 21, 2021
Concepcion Challenger
C Clay · Final
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Cerundolo | Baez | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Francisco Cerundolo | Sebastian Baez | ||
| 1 or more | 85% | 11/13 | 68% | 13/19 |
| 3 or more | 77% | 10/13 | 32% | 6/19 |
| 5 or more | 62% | 8/13 | 16% | 3/19 |
| 10 or more | 15% | 2/13 | 0% | 0/19 |
| 15 or more | 8% | 1/13 | 0% | 0/19 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/13 | 0% | 0/19 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Cerundolo | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 8–7 | 8–9 |
| Avg odds | 2.17 | 2.43 |
| ROI % | +14.1% | -17.4% |
| Units P/L | +2.12u | -2.95u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Cerundolo | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 1 |
| Events | 3 | 3 |
| Matches | 6 | 4 |
| Distance | 5,722 mi · 9,208 km | 1,611 mi · 2,592 km |
| Route | GBR → CHN | CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Cerundolo has a higher win rate against shared opponents (70% vs Baez's 30%).
| Opponent | Cerundolo | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Jakub Mensik | L 36 63 26 | L 36 67 |
| Daniil Medvedev | L 67 36 | L 46 06 |
| Jenson Brooksby | W 60 64 | L 57 57 |
| Taylor Fritz | W 36 46 63 64 64 | W 46 75 64 |
| Jan-Lennard Struff | W 57 75 46 62 63 | L 16 67 64 62 57 |
| Brandon Nakashima | W 67 63 64 | L 26 16 06 |
| Alex Michelsen | L 36 46 | L 57 36 |
| Tristan Boyer | W | W 62 64 |
| Yannick Hanfmann | W 61 75 | L 36 16 |
| Miomir Kecmanovic | W 75 16 76 | W 63 36 64 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Jakub Mensik
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 11
Roman Safiullin
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 9
Daniil Medvedev
China Open - Beijing · Quarterfinals
Oct 4
Jakub Mensik
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Botic van de Zandschulp
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 1
Casper Ruud
Laver Cup - London · Round Robin
Sep 25
Mert Alkaya
Davis Cup, Group I, 1R, ARG-TUR 3-1 · Rubber 4
Sep 20
Yanki Erel
Davis Cup, Group I, 1R, ARG-TUR 3-1 · Rubber 1
Sep 19
Valentin Vacherot
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Marcos Giron
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 8
Juncheng Shang
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 1
Jenson Brooksby
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · 1st Round
Sep 23
Brandon Nakashima
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 31
Juan Manuel Cerundolo
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 3rd Round
Aug 26
Hugo Grenier
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 2nd Round
Aug 26
Hubert Hurkacz
Cancun Challenger · Final
Aug 24
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 60–65 matches
| Metric | Cerundolo | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 63% | 54% |
| Sets won | 60% | 52% |
| Games won | 54% | 50% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Cerundolo | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 1 | 1 |
| ATP 500 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP 250 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Challenger Tour | 0 | 2 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Cerundolo | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Clay | 1 | 3 |
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