Francisco Cerundolo vs Sebastian BaezPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Francisco Cerundolo and Sebastian Baez have met 4 times since 2021; Sebastian Baez leads 3–1. Their first meeting came at Concepcion Challenger in 2021 on clay. On clay courts Baez leads 3–1. 2 of their meetings have been finals, split 1–1. Across all meetings Cerundolo has taken 4 sets to Baez's 6. Their most recent meeting: Sebastian Baez won at Rio Open - Rio de Janeiro (2024).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Cerundolo | Baez | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Francisco Cerundolo | Sebastian Baez | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 75% | 21/28 | 76% | 26/34 |
| Wins a set when losing | 28% | 5/18 | 19% | 5/26 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 26% | 12/46 | 22% | 13/60 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 61% | 17/28 | 63% | 17/27 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 50% | 9/18 | 52% | 15/29 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 53% | 9/17 | 64% | 7/11 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 84% | 26/31 | 85% | 29/34 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 68% | 21/31 | 76% | 26/34 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 4 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Cerundolo 1, Baez 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Cerundolo
🪃 Counterpuncher
Baez
🎾 All-Court
Matchup analysis
The 🎾 All-Court archetype wins about 55% vs 🪃 Counterpuncher across 682 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Sebastian Baez.
All-Court players often use tactical versatility and net approach ability to pressure the counterpuncher's elite bp conversion.
Previous meetings
4 career meetings, newest first
Feb 24, 2024
Rio Open - Rio de Janeiro
C Clay · Semifinals
Jul 17, 2022
Nordea Open - Bastad
C Clay · Final
Nov 20, 2021
Campinas Challenger
C Clay · Semifinals
Feb 21, 2021
Concepcion Challenger
C Clay · Final
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Cerundolo | Baez | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Francisco Cerundolo | Sebastian Baez | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 9/9 | 76% | 16/21 |
| 3 or more | 56% | 5/9 | 29% | 6/21 |
| 5 or more | 33% | 3/9 | 10% | 2/21 |
| 10 or more | 11% | 1/9 | 0% | 0/21 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/9 | 0% | 0/21 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/9 | 0% | 0/21 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Cerundolo | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 5–4 | 14–6 |
| Avg odds | 1.89 | 1.90 |
| ROI % | +9.4% | +8.8% |
| Units P/L | +0.85u | +1.76u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Cerundolo | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 3 |
| Events | 2 | 4 |
| Matches | 2 | 9 |
| Distance | 712 mi · 1,146 km | 3,066 mi · 4,934 km |
| Route | CAN → USA | CAN → USA → MEX → USA |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Cerundolo has a higher win rate against shared opponents (50% vs Baez's 40%).
| Opponent | Cerundolo | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Learner Tien | L 64 36 46 | L 36 67 |
| Alex Michelsen | L 36 46 | L 57 36 |
| Zizou Bergs | L 67 36 | L 63 36 26 |
| Yannick Hanfmann | W 61 75 | L 36 16 |
| Miomir Kecmanovic | W 75 16 76 | W 63 36 64 |
| Andrey Rublev | W 63 76 63 | L 16 26 |
| Jaume Munar | L 16 46 36 | W 64 64 |
| Jenson Brooksby | W 60 64 | W 63 76 |
| Alejandro Tabilo | W 60 62 | W 76 61 |
| Alexander Bublik | L 46 26 | L 16 26 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Nuno Borges
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Alex Michelsen
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 6
Arthur Gea
Mifel Tennis Open - Los Cabos · Quarterfinals
Jul 31
Jaume Munar
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 30
Tommy Paul
HSBC Championships - London · Final
Jun 21
Brandon Nakashima
HSBC Championships - London · Semifinals
Jun 20
Arthur Fery
HSBC Championships - London · Quarterfinals
Jun 19
Jenson Brooksby
HSBC Championships - London · 2nd Round
Jun 17
Hugo Grenier
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 2nd Round
Aug 26
Hubert Hurkacz
Cancun Challenger · Final
Aug 24
Lloyd Harris
Cancun Challenger · Semifinals
Aug 23
Chak Pong Marco Lam
Cancun Challenger · Quarterfinals
Aug 22
Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez
Cancun Challenger · 2nd Round
Aug 21
Learner Tien
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Grigor Dimitrov
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 14
Zizou Bergs
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 54–64 matches
| Metric | Cerundolo | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 61% | 55% |
| Sets won | 59% | 53% |
| Games won | 53% | 50% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Cerundolo | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 1 | 1 |
| ATP World Tour 500 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP World Tour 250 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Challenger Tour | 0 | 2 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Cerundolo | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Clay | 1 | 3 |
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