Frances Tiafoe vs Tommy PaulPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Frances Tiafoe and Tommy Paul have met 6 times since 2016; Tommy Paul leads 4–2. Their first meeting came at Lexington in 2016 on hard. On hard courts Paul leads 3–2. Paul has won the last 4 meetings. Across all meetings Tiafoe has taken 6 sets to Paul's 8. Their most recent meeting: Tommy Paul won at US Men's Clay Court Championship - Houston (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Tiafoe | Paul | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Frances Tiafoe | Tommy Paul | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 57% | 17/30 | 55% | 16/29 |
| Wins a set when losing | 38% | 6/16 | 58% | 7/12 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 41% | 19/46 | 49% | 20/41 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 50% | 13/26 | 39% | 14/36 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 65% | 13/20 | 100% | 4/4 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 58% | 11/19 | 62% | 13/21 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 89% | 24/27 | 81% | 21/26 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 63% | 17/27 | 62% | 16/26 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 4 of 6 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Tiafoe 2, Paul 2).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Tiafoe
💥 Big Hitter
Paul
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
Both Frances Tiafoe and Tommy Paul are 💥 Big Hitter types. Mirror matchups usually come down to execution, fitness, and surface fit, across 2,644 matches in our dataset the historical split is about even.
Previous meetings
6 career meetings, newest first
Apr 4, 2026
US Men's Clay Court Championship - Houston
C Clay · Semifinals
Feb 17, 2024
Delray Beach Open - Delray Beach
H Hard · Semifinals
Jan 10, 2022
Adelaide International 2 - Adelaide
H Hard · 1st Round
Nov 12, 2021
Stockholm Open - Stockholm
H Hard · Semifinals
Feb 20, 2020
Delray Beach Open - Delray Beach
H Hard · 2nd Round
Jul 13, 2016
Lexington
H Hard · Round of 32
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Tiafoe | Paul | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Frances Tiafoe | Tommy Paul | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 20/20 | 100% | 15/15 |
| 3 or more | 95% | 19/20 | 93% | 14/15 |
| 5 or more | 60% | 12/20 | 80% | 12/15 |
| 10 or more | 10% | 2/20 | 33% | 5/15 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/20 | 13% | 2/15 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/20 | 0% | 0/15 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Tiafoe | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 15–5 | 10–4 |
| Avg odds | 1.92 | 1.54 |
| ROI % | +31.0% | +12.2% |
| Units P/L | +6.20u | +1.71u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Tiafoe | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 2 | 2 |
| Matches | 6 | 5 |
| Distance | 712 mi · 1,146 km | 712 mi · 1,146 km |
| Route | CAN → USA | CAN → USA |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Across 10 shared opponents, both Tiafoe and Paul posted a 70% win rate.
| Opponent | Tiafoe | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Arthur Fils | L 36 61 06 | L 76 67 67 |
| Learner Tien | W 64 46 64 | L 36 26 |
| Alexander Zverev | L 36 46 | W 46 76 64 |
| Lorenzo Sonego | W 63 64 | W 63 62 64 |
| Hubert Hurkacz | W 67 76 64 67 64 | W 64 67 63 |
| Alexander Bublik | L 64 67 67 64 36 | L 67 76 36 76 16 |
| Taylor Fritz | W 64 64 | W 64 63 |
| Daniel Altmaier | W 61 63 | W 62 75 |
| Zachary Svajda | W 64 36 75 | W 75 63 |
| Rinky Hijikata | W 64 64 | W 46 63 75 64 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Arthur Fils
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Final
Aug 23
Brandon Nakashima
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Semifinals
Aug 23
Lorenzo Musetti
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 22
Felix Auger Aliassime
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Learner Tien
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 19
Lorenzo Sonego
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 17
Marin Cilic
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Terence Atmane
Citi Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 28
Alexander Zverev
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 19
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Hubert Hurkacz
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Learner Tien
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 8
Valentin Royer
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 6
Kamil Majchrzak
Citi Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 28
Hubert Hurkacz
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 3
Soonwoo Kwon
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 1
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 51–56 matches
| Metric | Tiafoe | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 66% | 69% |
| Sets won | 59% | 64% |
| Games won | 53% | 54% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Tiafoe | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| ATP 250 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP World Tour 250 | 1 | 3 |
| ATP Challenger Tour | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Tiafoe | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 2 | 3 |
| Clay | 0 | 1 |
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