Elena Rybakina vs Jasmine PaoliniPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇰🇿Elena Rybakina
#2 · 26 yrs · Right-Handed
85 meetings · sets 7–5
🇮🇹Jasmine Paolini
#20 · 30 yrs · Right-Handed
8wElena Rybakina and Jasmine Paolini have met 5 times since 2023; Elena Rybakina leads 3–2. Their first meeting came at Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome in 2023 on clay. On clay courts Rybakina leads 2–1. On hard courts they are level 1–1. Across all meetings Rybakina has taken 7 sets to Paolini's 5. Their most recent meeting: Elena Rybakina won at Ningbo Open - Ningbo (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Rybakina | Paolini | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Elena Rybakina | Jasmine Paolini | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 68% | 39/57 | 54% | 14/26 |
| Wins a set when losing | 62% | 8/13 | 26% | 5/19 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 37% | 26/70 | 38% | 17/45 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 60% | 37/62 | 36% | 12/33 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 71% | 5/7 | 50% | 6/12 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 53% | 8/15 | 38% | 3/8 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 94% | 46/49 | 81% | 17/21 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 80% | 39/49 | 67% | 14/21 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 5 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Rybakina 2, Paolini 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Rybakina
🤖 Servebot
Paolini
🏹 Frontrunner
Matchup analysis
🤖 Servebot vs 🏹 Frontrunner is historically tight (48% vs 52%, 749 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
5 career meetings, newest first
Oct 18, 2025
Ningbo Open - Ningbo
H Hard · Semifinals
Nov 2, 2024
WTA Finals - Riyadh
H Hard · Round Robin
Jun 5, 2024
French Open - Paris
C Clay · Quarterfinals
Apr 19, 2024
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix - Stuttgart
C Clay · Quarterfinals
May 12, 2023
Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome
C Clay · 2nd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Rybakina | Paolini | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Elena Rybakina | Jasmine Paolini | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 15/15 | 50% | 3/6 |
| 3 or more | 73% | 11/15 | 17% | 1/6 |
| 5 or more | 73% | 11/15 | 0% | 0/6 |
| 10 or more | 27% | 4/15 | 0% | 0/6 |
| 15 or more | 13% | 2/15 | 0% | 0/6 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/6 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Rybakina | Paolini |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 11–3 | 4–2 |
| Avg odds | 1.32 | 2.18 |
| ROI % | +6.4% | +35.3% |
| Units P/L | +0.90u | +2.12u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Rybakina | Paolini |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | — |
| Events | 2 | — |
| Matches | 8 | — |
| Distance | 411 mi · 662 km | — |
| Route | CAN → POL | — |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Rybakina has a higher win rate against shared opponents (70% vs Paolini's 60%).
| Opponent | Rybakina | Paolini |
|---|---|---|
| Magdalena Frech | W 64 76 | W 62 63 |
| Taylor Townsend | W 63 64 | W 63 16 62 |
| Coco Gauff | W 57 62 62 | L 36 26 |
| Marta Kostyuk | W 63 64 | L 36 26 |
| Alexandra Eala | L 57 46 | W 64 46 63 |
| Elise Mertens | L 67 16 | L 64 67 36 |
| Maria Sakkari | W 64 61 | W 61 62 |
| Tatjana Maria | W 67 75 60 | L 46 36 |
| Katie Boulter | L 57 62 46 | W 06 63 63 |
| Dayana Yastremska | W 64 67 63 | W 75 63 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Diana Shnaider
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Magdalena Frech
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 17
Taylor Townsend
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Coco Gauff
National Bank Open - Toronto · Semifinals
Aug 13
Naomi Osaka
National Bank Open - Toronto · Quarterfinals
Aug 12
Liudmila Samsonova
National Bank Open - Toronto · 4th Round
Aug 9
Ann Li
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Daria Kasatkina
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Marta Kostyuk
Wimbledon - London · Quarterfinals
Jul 8
Alexandra Eala
Wimbledon - London · 4th Round
Jul 6
Maria Sakkari
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 4
Viktorija Golubic
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 2
Robin Montgomery
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 30
Tatjana Maria
Lexus Eastbourne Open - Eastbourne · 1st Round
Jun 23
Solana Sierra
French Open - Paris · 2nd Round
May 27
Dayana Yastremska
French Open - Paris · 1st Round
May 25
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 45–70 matches
| Metric | Rybakina | Paolini |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 81% | 58% |
| Sets won | 73% | 53% |
| Games won | 58% | 52% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Rybakina | Paolini |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 0 | 1 |
| WTA Finals | 0 | 1 |
| WTA 500 | 2 | 0 |
| WTA 1000 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Rybakina | Paolini |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 1 |
| Clay | 2 | 1 |
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