Elena Rybakina vs Jasmine PaoliniPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇰🇿Elena Rybakina
#1 · 26 yrs · Right-Handed
5 meetings · sets 7–5
🇮🇹Jasmine Paolini
#33 · 30 yrs · Right-Handed
Elena Rybakina and Jasmine Paolini have met 5 times since 2023; Elena Rybakina leads 3–2. Their first meeting came at Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome in 2023 on clay. On clay courts Rybakina leads 2–1. On hard courts they are level 1–1. Across all meetings Rybakina has taken 7 sets to Paolini's 5. Their most recent meeting: Elena Rybakina won at Ningbo Open - Ningbo (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Rybakina | Paolini | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Elena Rybakina | Jasmine Paolini | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 67% | 40/60 | 50% | 10/20 |
| Wins a set when losing | 58% | 7/12 | 26% | 5/19 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 38% | 27/72 | 38% | 15/39 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 61% | 39/64 | 33% | 10/30 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 75% | 6/8 | 33% | 3/9 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 56% | 9/16 | 14% | 1/7 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 92% | 47/51 | 78% | 14/18 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 78% | 40/51 | 56% | 10/18 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 5 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Rybakina 2, Paolini 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Rybakina
🤖 Servebot
Paolini
🏹 Frontrunner
Matchup analysis
🤖 Servebot vs 🏹 Frontrunner is historically tight (48% vs 52%, 728 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
5 career meetings, newest first
Oct 18, 2025
Ningbo Open - Ningbo
H Hard · Semifinals
Nov 2, 2024
WTA Finals - Riyadh
H Hard · Round Robin
Jun 5, 2024
French Open - Paris
C Clay · Quarterfinals
Apr 19, 2024
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix - Stuttgart
C Clay · Quarterfinals
May 12, 2023
Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome
C Clay · 2nd Round
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Rybakina | Paolini |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 15–2 | 2–2 |
| Avg odds | 1.47 | 1.66 |
| ROI % | +28.5% | -36.5% |
| Units P/L | +4.85u | -1.46u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Rybakina | Paolini |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 1 |
| Events | 1 | 1 |
| Matches | 1 | 1 |
| Distance | 0 mi · 0 km | 0 mi · 0 km |
| Route | ROU | ROU |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Rybakina has a higher win rate against shared opponents (80% vs Paolini's 50%).
| Opponent | Rybakina | Paolini |
|---|---|---|
| Aryna Sabalenka | W 64 57 62 | L 36 16 |
| Coco Gauff | W 36 64 64 | L 36 26 |
| Veronika Erjavec | W 62 62 | W 63 36 64 |
| Magdalena Frech | W 64 76 | W 62 63 |
| Taylor Townsend | W 63 64 | W 63 16 62 |
| Marta Kostyuk | W 63 64 | L 36 26 |
| Alexandra Eala | L 57 46 | W 64 46 63 |
| Elise Mertens | L 67 16 | L 64 67 36 |
| Maria Sakkari | W 64 61 | W 61 62 |
| Tatjana Maria | W 67 75 60 | L 46 36 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Alina Charaeva
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Aryna Sabalenka
U.S. Open - New York · Final
Sep 12
Coco Gauff
U.S. Open - New York · Semifinals
Sep 11
Qinwen Zheng
U.S. Open - New York · Quarterfinals
Sep 9
Naomi Osaka
U.S. Open - New York · 4th Round
Sep 7
Yuliia Starodubtseva
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 6
Jessica Bouzas Maneiro
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 4
Thea Frodin
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 1
Daria Snigur
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 2
Sorana Cirstea
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 4
Lucrezia Stefanini
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 2
Veronika Erjavec
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 30
Marta Kostyuk
Wimbledon - London · Quarterfinals
Jul 8
Alexandra Eala
Wimbledon - London · 4th Round
Jul 6
Maria Sakkari
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 4
Viktorija Golubic
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 2
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 39–72 matches
| Metric | Rybakina | Paolini |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 83% | 51% |
| Sets won | 74% | 48% |
| Games won | 58% | 50% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Rybakina | Paolini |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 0 | 1 |
| WTA Finals | 0 | 1 |
| WTA 500 | 2 | 0 |
| WTA 1000 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Rybakina | Paolini |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 1 |
| Clay | 2 | 1 |
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