Denis Shapovalov vs Tommy PaulPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Denis Shapovalov and Tommy Paul have met 4 times since 2021; they are level 2–2. Their first meeting came at Stockholm Open - Stockholm in 2021 on hard. On hard courts Shapovalov leads 2–1. Shapovalov has won the last 2 meetings. 1 of their meetings has been a final, with Paul leading those 1–0. Across all meetings Shapovalov has taken 6 sets to Paul's 5. Their most recent meeting: Denis Shapovalov won at Dallas Open - Dallas (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Shapovalov | Paul | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Denis Shapovalov | Tommy Paul | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 44% | 8/18 | 55% | 16/29 |
| Wins a set when losing | 28% | 5/18 | 58% | 7/12 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 42% | 15/36 | 49% | 20/41 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 30% | 7/23 | 39% | 14/36 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 62% | 8/13 | 100% | 4/4 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 60% | 6/10 | 62% | 13/21 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 83% | 15/18 | 81% | 21/26 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 44% | 8/18 | 62% | 16/26 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 4 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Shapovalov 1, Paul 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Shapovalov
💥 Big Hitter
Paul
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
Both Denis Shapovalov and Tommy Paul are 💥 Big Hitter types. Mirror matchups usually come down to execution, fitness, and surface fit, across 2,644 matches in our dataset the historical split is about even.
Previous meetings
4 career meetings, newest first
Feb 8, 2025
Dallas Open - Dallas
H Hard · Semifinals
Aug 17, 2022
Western & Southern Open - Cincinnati
H Hard · 2nd Round
Jun 15, 2022
cinch Championships - London
G Grass · 1st Round
Nov 13, 2021
Stockholm Open - Stockholm
H Hard · Final
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Shapovalov | Paul | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Denis Shapovalov | Tommy Paul | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 10/10 | 100% | 15/15 |
| 3 or more | 80% | 8/10 | 93% | 14/15 |
| 5 or more | 70% | 7/10 | 80% | 12/15 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/10 | 33% | 5/15 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/10 | 13% | 2/15 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/10 | 0% | 0/15 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Shapovalov | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 6–5 | 10–4 |
| Avg odds | 2.01 | 1.54 |
| ROI % | -7.8% | +12.2% |
| Units P/L | -0.86u | +1.71u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Shapovalov | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 2 | 2 |
| Matches | 5 | 5 |
| Distance | 1,847 mi · 2,972 km | 712 mi · 1,146 km |
| Route | MEX → USA | CAN → USA |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Paul has a higher win rate against shared opponents (90% vs Shapovalov's 50%).
| Opponent | Shapovalov | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Adrian Mannarino | W 61 64 | W 62 26 64 |
| Valentin Royer | W 76 62 | W 64 76 |
| Rinky Hijikata | W 26 63 62 | W 46 63 75 64 |
| Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | W 57 64 63 | W 63 76 |
| Botic van de Zandschulp | L 57 36 | W 76 63 |
| Alex de Minaur | L 46 16 | W 26 63 63 |
| Casper Ruud | L 36 46 | L 64 76 46 67 57 |
| Daniel Altmaier | L 57 36 | W 62 75 |
| Tomas Martin Etcheverry | W 63 26 76 | W 67 76 76 |
| Raphael Collignon | L 46 26 | W 62 36 76 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Rafael Jodar
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Adrian Mannarino
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 13
Arthur Gea
Mifel Tennis Open - Los Cabos · Final
Aug 1
Cameron Norrie
Mifel Tennis Open - Los Cabos · Semifinals
Jul 31
Dalibor Svrcina
Mifel Tennis Open - Los Cabos · Quarterfinals
Jul 31
Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez
Mifel Tennis Open - Los Cabos · 2nd Round
Jul 30
Rinky Hijikata
Mifel Tennis Open - Los Cabos · 1st Round
Jul 29
Pablo Carreno Busta
Wimbledon · Round of 128
Jun 30
Alexander Zverev
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 19
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Hubert Hurkacz
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Learner Tien
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 8
Valentin Royer
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 6
Kamil Majchrzak
Citi Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 28
Hubert Hurkacz
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 3
Soonwoo Kwon
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 1
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 39–51 matches
| Metric | Shapovalov | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 46% | 69% |
| Sets won | 43% | 64% |
| Games won | 49% | 54% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Shapovalov | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 0 | 1 |
| ATP 500 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP World Tour Masters 1000 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP World Tour 500 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP World Tour 250 | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Shapovalov | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 2 | 1 |
| Grass | 0 | 1 |
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