Denis Shapovalov vs Tommy PaulPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Denis Shapovalov and Tommy Paul have met 4 times since 2021; they are level 2–2. Their first meeting came at Stockholm Open - Stockholm in 2021 on hard. On hard courts Shapovalov leads 2–1. Shapovalov has won the last 2 meetings. 1 of their meetings has been a final, with Paul leading those 1–0. Across all meetings Shapovalov has taken 6 sets to Paul's 5. Their most recent meeting: Denis Shapovalov won at Dallas Open - Dallas (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Shapovalov | Paul | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Denis Shapovalov | Tommy Paul | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 45% | 10/22 | 57% | 17/30 |
| Wins a set when losing | 35% | 6/17 | 57% | 8/14 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 46% | 18/39 | 48% | 21/44 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 35% | 9/26 | 38% | 15/39 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 69% | 9/13 | 100% | 4/4 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 62% | 8/13 | 62% | 13/21 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 82% | 18/22 | 79% | 22/28 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 45% | 10/22 | 61% | 17/28 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 4 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Shapovalov 1, Paul 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Shapovalov
💥 Big Hitter
Paul
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
Both Denis Shapovalov and Tommy Paul are 💥 Big Hitter types. Mirror matchups usually come down to execution, fitness, and surface fit, across 4,120 matches in our dataset the historical split is about even.
Previous meetings
4 career meetings, newest first
Feb 8, 2025
Dallas Open - Dallas
H Hard · Semifinals
Aug 17, 2022
Western & Southern Open - Cincinnati
H Hard · 2nd Round
Jun 15, 2022
cinch Championships - London
G Grass · 1st Round
Nov 13, 2021
Stockholm Open - Stockholm
H Hard · Final
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Shapovalov | Paul | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Denis Shapovalov | Tommy Paul | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 17/17 | 100% | 12/12 |
| 3 or more | 82% | 14/17 | 92% | 11/12 |
| 5 or more | 71% | 12/17 | 75% | 9/12 |
| 10 or more | 41% | 7/17 | 17% | 2/12 |
| 15 or more | 6% | 1/17 | 0% | 0/12 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/17 | 0% | 0/12 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Shapovalov | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 12–5 | 8–5 |
| Avg odds | 2.15 | 1.81 |
| ROI % | +12.3% | +1.3% |
| Units P/L | +2.09u | +0.17u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Shapovalov | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 2 | 2 |
| Matches | 7 | 2 |
| Distance | 2,080 mi · 3,347 km | 1,092 mi · 1,758 km |
| Route | CHN → JPN | JPN → CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Paul has a higher win rate against shared opponents (70% vs Shapovalov's 60%).
| Opponent | Shapovalov | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Carlos Alcaraz | L | L 46 36 46 |
| Alejandro Tabilo | W 75 36 64 | L 16 26 |
| Hubert Hurkacz | L 76 36 36 | W 64 67 63 |
| Adrian Mannarino | W 67 63 62 | W 62 26 64 |
| Miomir Kecmanovic | W 64 46 64 61 | L 75 46 46 |
| Valentin Royer | W 76 62 | W 64 76 |
| Zachary Svajda | L | W 75 63 |
| Rinky Hijikata | W 26 63 62 | W 46 63 75 64 |
| Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | W 57 64 63 | W 63 76 |
| Botic van de Zandschulp | L 57 36 | W 76 63 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Carlos Alcaraz
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · Quarterfinals
Oct 4
Alejandro Tabilo
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Sho Shimabukuro
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Oct 1
Hubert Hurkacz
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · Semifinals
Sep 28
Adrian Mannarino
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · Quarterfinals
Sep 27
Vit Kopriva
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · 2nd Round
Sep 25
Tallon Griekspoor
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · 1st Round
Sep 24
Ben Shelton
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 5
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Alejandro Tabilo
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Sep 30
Carlos Alcaraz
U.S. Open - New York · 4th Round
Sep 6
Alexander Bublik
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 4
Dino Prizmic
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Chak Pong Marco Lam
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 30
Flavio Cobolli
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 20
Alexander Zverev
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 19
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 45–58 matches
| Metric | Shapovalov | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 56% | 69% |
| Sets won | 52% | 64% |
| Games won | 51% | 54% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Shapovalov | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 0 | 1 |
| ATP 500 | 1 | 1 |
| ATP 250 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Shapovalov | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 2 | 1 |
| Grass | 0 | 1 |
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