Daniil Medvedev vs Matteo ArnaldiPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Daniil Medvedev and Matteo Arnaldi have met 4 times since 2023; Daniil Medvedev leads 4–0. Their first meeting came at Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships - Dubai in 2023 on hard. On hard courts Medvedev leads 3–0. Medvedev has won the last 4 meetings. Across all meetings Medvedev has taken 8 sets to Arnaldi's 2. Their most recent meeting: Daniil Medvedev won at Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai (2024).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Medvedev | Arnaldi | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Daniil Medvedev | Matteo Arnaldi | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 68% | 28/41 | 42% | 8/19 |
| Wins a set when losing | 47% | 7/15 | 56% | 10/18 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 36% | 20/56 | 57% | 21/37 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 51% | 25/49 | 31% | 5/16 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 50% | 2/4 | 67% | 12/18 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 39% | 9/23 | 62% | 13/21 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 94% | 34/36 | 87% | 13/15 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 78% | 28/36 | 53% | 8/15 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 4 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Medvedev 2, Arnaldi 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Medvedev
👑 The Complete Package
Arnaldi
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
The 💥 Big Hitter archetype wins about 53% vs 👑 The Complete Package across 1,618 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Matteo Arnaldi.
Big Hitter players often use power groundstrokes and high winner count to pressure the the complete package's elite serve & return.
Previous meetings
4 career meetings, newest first
Oct 6, 2024
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai
H Hard · 3rd Round
Apr 27, 2024
Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid
C Clay · 2nd Round
Aug 9, 2023
National Bank Open - Toronto
H Hard · 2nd Round
Feb 28, 2023
Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships - Dubai
H Hard · 1st Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Medvedev | Arnaldi | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Daniil Medvedev | Matteo Arnaldi | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 17/17 | 100% | 8/8 |
| 3 or more | 100% | 17/17 | 88% | 7/8 |
| 5 or more | 88% | 15/17 | 63% | 5/8 |
| 10 or more | 82% | 14/17 | 13% | 1/8 |
| 15 or more | 24% | 4/17 | 0% | 0/8 |
| 20 or more | 12% | 2/17 | 0% | 0/8 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Medvedev | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 11–5 | 3–5 |
| Avg odds | 1.32 | 3.31 |
| ROI % | -15.1% | -27.4% |
| Units P/L | -2.42u | -2.19u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Medvedev | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 2 |
| Events | 3 | 2 |
| Matches | 9 | 4 |
| Distance | 1,361 mi · 2,191 km | 1,092 mi · 1,758 km |
| Route | CHN | JPN → CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Medvedev has a higher win rate against shared opponents (80% vs Arnaldi's 50%).
| Opponent | Medvedev | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Carlos Alcaraz | W 63 76 | L 67 16 |
| Rei Sakamoto | W 67 63 61 | W 26 64 64 |
| Andrey Rublev | W 75 64 | L 46 26 36 |
| Frances Tiafoe | L 67 46 67 | W 76 67 36 76 64 |
| James Duckworth | W 67 63 62 | L 75 36 26 67 |
| Hugo Gaston | W 64 62 64 | W 61 57 76 |
| Martin Landaluce | W 16 64 75 | L 46 64 46 |
| Fabian Marozsan | W 62 67 64 | W 75 26 64 |
| Quentin Halys | W 67 63 64 62 | L 63 16 67 36 |
| Matteo Berrettini | L 06 06 | W |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Jan-Lennard Struff
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Novak Djokovic
China Open - Beijing · Semifinals
Oct 5
Francisco Cerundolo
China Open - Beijing · Quarterfinals
Oct 4
Jan-Lennard Struff
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Pablo Carreno Busta
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 2
Andrey Rublev
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · Final
Sep 29
Roman Safiullin
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · Semifinals
Sep 28
Chak Pong Marco Lam
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · Quarterfinals
Sep 27
Taylor Fritz
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Bernard Tomic
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 8
Carlos Alcaraz
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Rei Sakamoto
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Sep 30
James Duckworth
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 31
Martin Landaluce
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Tallon Griekspoor
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Fabian Marozsan
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 6
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 44–68 matches
| Metric | Medvedev | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 72% | 52% |
| Sets won | 66% | 50% |
| Games won | 56% | 49% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Medvedev | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| ATP 500 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 3 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Medvedev | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 3 | 0 |
| Clay | 1 | 0 |
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