Daniil Medvedev vs Matteo ArnaldiPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Daniil Medvedev and Matteo Arnaldi have met 4 times since 2023; Daniil Medvedev leads 4–0. Their first meeting came at Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships - Dubai in 2023 on hard. On hard courts Medvedev leads 3–0. Medvedev has won the last 4 meetings. Across all meetings Medvedev has taken 8 sets to Arnaldi's 2. Their most recent meeting: Daniil Medvedev won at Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai (2024).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Medvedev | Arnaldi | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Daniil Medvedev | Matteo Arnaldi | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 71% | 29/41 | 41% | 7/17 |
| Wins a set when losing | 53% | 9/17 | 58% | 11/19 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 36% | 21/58 | 58% | 21/36 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 49% | 25/51 | 24% | 4/17 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 60% | 3/5 | 63% | 10/16 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 38% | 9/24 | 60% | 12/20 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 90% | 35/39 | 87% | 13/15 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 74% | 29/39 | 47% | 7/15 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 4 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Medvedev 2, Arnaldi 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Medvedev
👑 The Complete Package
Arnaldi
⚙️ Grinder
Matchup analysis
The 👑 The Complete Package archetype wins about 53% vs ⚙️ Grinder across 233 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Daniil Medvedev.
The Complete Package players often use elite serve & return and high bp conversion to pressure the grinder's relentless consistency.
Previous meetings
4 career meetings, newest first
Oct 6, 2024
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai
H Hard · 3rd Round
Apr 27, 2024
Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid
C Clay · 2nd Round
Aug 9, 2023
National Bank Open - Toronto
H Hard · 2nd Round
Feb 28, 2023
Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships - Dubai
H Hard · 1st Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Medvedev | Arnaldi | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Daniil Medvedev | Matteo Arnaldi | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 13/13 | 100% | 11/11 |
| 3 or more | 100% | 13/13 | 91% | 10/11 |
| 5 or more | 77% | 10/13 | 73% | 8/11 |
| 10 or more | 54% | 7/13 | 27% | 3/11 |
| 15 or more | 15% | 2/13 | 9% | 1/11 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/13 | 0% | 0/11 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Medvedev | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 6–6 | 3–5 |
| Avg odds | 1.26 | 1.87 |
| ROI % | -39.7% | -33.3% |
| Units P/L | -4.76u | -2.66u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Medvedev | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 3 | 2 |
| Matches | 4 | 3 |
| Distance | 1,024 mi · 1,648 km | 712 mi · 1,146 km |
| Route | CAN → USA | CAN → USA |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Arnaldi has a higher win rate against shared opponents (80% vs Medvedev's 70%).
| Opponent | Medvedev | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Martin Landaluce | W 16 64 75 | L 46 64 46 |
| Fabian Marozsan | W 62 67 64 | W 75 26 64 |
| Quentin Halys | W 67 63 64 62 | L 63 16 67 36 |
| Matteo Berrettini | L 06 06 | W 75 52 |
| Frances Tiafoe | L 36 26 | W 76 67 36 76 64 |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | L 36 46 | W 76 57 63 62 |
| Alex de Minaur | W 64 64 | W 46 76 64 |
| Jaume Munar | W 61 63 | W 63 36 63 |
| Nuno Borges | W 64 67 62 | W 63 67 76 |
| Rei Sakamoto | W 67 63 61 | W 76 64 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Martin Damm
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 2nd Round
Aug 26
Brandon Nakashima
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Marco Trungelliti
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Botic van de Zandschulp
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 6
Jan-Lennard Struff
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 3
Daniel Merida
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 1
Marin Cilic
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 29
Daniel Altmaier
Terra Wortmann Open - Halle · Quarterfinals
Jun 19
Martin Landaluce
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Tallon Griekspoor
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Fabian Marozsan
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 6
Damir Dzumhur
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · Quarterfinals
Jul 16
Federico Agustin Gomez
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · 2nd Round
Jul 15
Quentin Halys
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 30
Giles Hussey
Lexus Eastbourne Open - Eastbourne · 1st Round
Jun 23
Matteo Berrettini
Roland Garros · Quarterfinals
Jun 3
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 42–66 matches
| Metric | Medvedev | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 70% | 50% |
| Sets won | 65% | 49% |
| Games won | 55% | 49% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Medvedev | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| ATP World Tour Masters 1000 | 3 | 0 |
| ATP World Tour 500 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Medvedev | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 3 | 0 |
| Clay | 1 | 0 |
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