Daniil Medvedev vs Francisco CerundoloPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Daniil Medvedev and Francisco Cerundolo have met 1 time since 2026; Francisco Cerundolo leads 1–0. Across all meetings Medvedev has taken 1 sets to Cerundolo's 2. Their most recent meeting: Francisco Cerundolo won at Miami Open - Miami (2026).
Upcoming match
- Tournament
- China Open - Beijing
- Level
- ATP 500
- Round
- Quarterfinals
- Surface
- Hard
- Date & time
- October 4 · 4:40 AM ET
Book odds
Set spread
Game spread
Record at prices like this
At 1.35 or shorter, Daniil Medvedev has won 186 of 246 (76%). The price implied 79%, so Daniil Medvedev has fallen 3 points short of it.
At 3.24 or longer, Francisco Cerundolo has won 12 of 40 (30%). The price implied 23%, so Francisco Cerundolo has beaten it by 7 points.
Book prices with the bookmaker margin removed, across every priced match we hold for each player. Green beats the price by 3 points or more, red falls that far short, grey is within 3 points. Samples under ten are not shown.
Francisco Cerundolo meets Daniil Medvedev in the China Open quarterfinals on October 4 in Beijing. Cerundolo, ranked 22nd, comes in on a two-match winning streak after four matches in fourteen days. Medvedev, the 6th-ranked player, has won six straight and played six matches over the same span.
The two have met once before, with Cerundolo taking that encounter. Medvedev has won 9 of his last 10 matches overall. Cerundolo has claimed 7 of his last 10, though he fell to Jack Draper and Alex Michelsen recently. Both players have taken wins from Tsitsipas and van de Zandschulp in the current stretch.
Cerundolo plays as a counterpuncher who reads the court and breaks rhythm from the baseline; he holds a 60% record on hard courts in his recent sample. Medvedev operates as a complete player with depth in all strokes and strong consistency; his hard court record stands at 70% over the same span. The match will test whether Cerundolo's reactive game can disrupt Medvedev's patterns under Beijing's conditions, while Medvedev must maintain the offensive structure that has carried his current run.
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Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Medvedev | Cerundolo | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Daniil Medvedev | Francisco Cerundolo | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 70% | 30/43 | 72% | 21/29 |
| Wins a set when losing | 50% | 8/16 | 29% | 5/17 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 36% | 21/59 | 28% | 13/46 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 51% | 26/51 | 61% | 17/28 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 60% | 3/5 | 56% | 10/18 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 40% | 10/25 | 43% | 6/14 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 93% | 37/40 | 84% | 26/31 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 75% | 30/40 | 68% | 21/31 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 0 of 1 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Medvedev 0, Cerundolo 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Medvedev
👑 The Complete Package
Cerundolo
🪃 Counterpuncher
Matchup analysis
The 👑 The Complete Package archetype wins about 53% vs 🪃 Counterpuncher across 1,801 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Daniil Medvedev.
The Complete Package players often use elite serve & return and high bp conversion to pressure the counterpuncher's elite bp conversion.
Previous meetings
1 career meeting, newest first
Mar 23, 2026
Miami Open - Miami
H Hard · 3rd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Medvedev | Cerundolo | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Daniil Medvedev | Francisco Cerundolo | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 14/14 | 90% | 9/10 |
| 3 or more | 100% | 14/14 | 80% | 8/10 |
| 5 or more | 93% | 13/14 | 60% | 6/10 |
| 10 or more | 86% | 12/14 | 20% | 2/10 |
| 15 or more | 21% | 3/14 | 10% | 1/10 |
| 20 or more | 7% | 1/14 | 0% | 0/10 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Medvedev | Cerundolo |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 9–4 | 7–5 |
| Avg odds | 1.30 | 2.11 |
| ROI % | -14.8% | +26.9% |
| Units P/L | -1.92u | +3.23u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Medvedev | Cerundolo |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 3 |
| Events | 3 | 3 |
| Matches | 8 | 5 |
| Distance | 8,147 mi · 13,112 km | 8,520 mi · 13,711 km |
| Route | USA → CHN | USA → GBR → CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Medvedev has a higher win rate against shared opponents (80% vs Cerundolo's 70%).
| Opponent | Medvedev | Cerundolo |
|---|---|---|
| Jan-Lennard Struff | W 64 63 | W 57 75 46 62 63 |
| Botic van de Zandschulp | L 36 67 | W 57 64 63 |
| Andrey Rublev | W 75 64 | W 63 76 63 |
| Hugo Gaston | W 64 62 64 | W 26 64 62 61 |
| Brandon Nakashima | L 76 67 16 | W 67 63 64 |
| Nuno Borges | W 64 67 62 | L 46 46 |
| Alex Michelsen | W 62 64 | L 36 46 |
| Jaume Munar | W 61 63 | L 16 46 36 |
| Jenson Brooksby | W 62 61 | W 60 64 |
| Tomas Martin Etcheverry | W 63 64 | W 63 75 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Jan-Lennard Struff
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Pablo Carreno Busta
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 2
Andrey Rublev
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · Final
Sep 29
Roman Safiullin
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · Semifinals
Sep 28
Chak Pong Marco Lam
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · Quarterfinals
Sep 27
Valentin Royer
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · 2nd Round
Sep 26
Frances Tiafoe
U.S. Open - New York · 4th Round
Sep 6
Arthur Rinderknech
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 4
Jakub Mensik
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Botic van de Zandschulp
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 1
Casper Ruud
Laver Cup - London · Round Robin
Sep 25
Mert Alkaya
Davis Cup, Group I, 1R, ARG-TUR 3-1 · Rubber 4
Sep 20
Yanki Erel
Davis Cup, Group I, 1R, ARG-TUR 3-1 · Rubber 1
Sep 19
Alexander Blockx
U.S. Open - New York · 4th Round
Sep 7
Taylor Fritz
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 5
Jan-Lennard Struff
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Matchup videos
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 58–71 matches
| Metric | Medvedev | Cerundolo |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 72% | 64% |
| Sets won | 66% | 60% |
| Games won | 56% | 54% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Medvedev | Cerundolo |
|---|---|---|
| ATP Masters 1000 | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Medvedev | Cerundolo |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 1 |