Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo ArnaldiPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Carlos Alcaraz and Matteo Arnaldi have met 2 times since 2023; Carlos Alcaraz leads 2–0. Their first meeting came at U.S. Open - New York in 2023 on hard. On hard courts Alcaraz leads 2–0. Alcaraz has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings Alcaraz has taken 5 sets to Arnaldi's 1. Their most recent meeting: Carlos Alcaraz won at BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells (2024).
Upcoming match
- Tournament
- Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo
- Level
- ATP 500
- Round
- 2nd Round
- Surface
- Hard
- Date & time
- October 2 · 11:30 PM ET
Book odds
Set spread
Game spread
Record at prices like this
At 1.05 or shorter, Carlos Alcaraz has won 94 of 99 (95%). That is level with the 94% the price implied.
Book prices with the bookmaker margin removed, across every priced match we hold for each player. Green beats the price by 3 points or more, red falls that far short, grey is within 3 points. Samples under ten are not shown.
Carlos Alcaraz meets Matteo Arnaldi in the 2nd Round of the Japan Open Tennis Championships on October 2 on hard court. Alcaraz is ranked third globally and advanced through the opening round in Tokyo. Arnaldi, ranked 37th, qualified for this matchup with a first-round victory after competing in just one match over the past two weeks.
Alcaraz leads their head-to-head record 2-0 and brings momentum into the encounter. The Spaniard has won 4 of his last 5 matches and sits on a two-match winning streak after playing twice in the past 14 days. Matteo Arnaldi has struggled considerably over a longer stretch, winning only 2 of his last 10 matches while posting a 1-4 record in his most recent five outings.
On hard courts, Alcaraz has won 17 of 20 matches recently, demonstrating comfort in converting pace and controlling rallies from the baseline. Arnaldi relies on powerful striking but has posted an 8-12 record on the surface over a comparable sample. The match will ask Alcaraz to maintain his tempo and consistency while Arnaldi will need to land his first serves and sustain aggression to generate openings before extended baseline exchanges develop.
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Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Alcaraz | Arnaldi | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Carlos Alcaraz | Matteo Arnaldi | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 71% | 15/21 | 39% | 7/18 |
| Wins a set when losing | 40% | 2/5 | 59% | 10/17 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 31% | 8/26 | 60% | 21/35 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 63% | 15/24 | 27% | 4/15 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 0% | 0/2 | 71% | 12/17 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 45% | 5/11 | 65% | 13/20 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 95% | 18/19 | 86% | 12/14 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 79% | 15/19 | 50% | 7/14 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 0 of 1 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Alcaraz 0, Arnaldi 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Alcaraz
👑 The Complete Package
Arnaldi
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
👑 The Complete Package vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (48% vs 52%, 1,576 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
2 career meetings, newest first
Mar 8, 2024
BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells
H Hard · 2nd Round
Sep 4, 2023
U.S. Open - New York
H Hard · 4th Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Alcaraz | Arnaldi | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Carlos Alcaraz | Matteo Arnaldi | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 6/6 | 100% | 7/7 |
| 3 or more | 83% | 5/6 | 100% | 7/7 |
| 5 or more | 17% | 1/6 | 86% | 6/7 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/6 | 14% | 1/7 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/6 | 0% | 0/7 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/6 | 0% | 0/7 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Alcaraz | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 6–1 | 3–4 |
| Avg odds | 1.17 | 1.92 |
| ROI % | -1.0% | -19.4% |
| Units P/L | -0.07u | -1.36u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Alcaraz | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 3 | 1 |
| Events | 3 | 1 |
| Matches | 6 | 1 |
| Distance | 9,401 mi · 15,129 km | 0 mi · 0 km |
| Route | USA → GBR → JPN | JPN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Alcaraz has a higher win rate against shared opponents (100% vs Arnaldi's 20%).
| Opponent | Alcaraz | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Lorenzo Musetti | W 64 61 | L |
| Alex de Minaur | W 75 62 61 | W 46 76 64 |
| Andrey Rublev | W 76 64 | L 46 26 36 |
| Alexander Zverev | W 64 76 67 67 75 | L 46 46 |
| Yannick Hanfmann | W 76 63 62 | L 76 46 46 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Alex Michelsen
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Oct 1
Taylor Fritz
Laver Cup - London · Round Robin
Sep 26
Ben Shelton
U.S. Open - New York · Quarterfinals
Sep 9
Tommy Paul
U.S. Open - New York · 4th Round
Sep 6
Yibing Wu
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 4
Jaime Faria
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Roman Safiullin
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 31
Otto Virtanen
Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell - Barcelona · 1st Round
Apr 14
Rei Sakamoto
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Sep 30
James Duckworth
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 31
Martin Landaluce
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Tallon Griekspoor
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Fabian Marozsan
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 6
Lorenzo Musetti
Citi Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 27
Damir Dzumhur
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · Quarterfinals
Jul 16
Federico Agustin Gomez
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · 2nd Round
Jul 15
Matchup videos
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 38–42 matches
| Metric | Alcaraz | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 84% | 52% |
| Sets won | 77% | 50% |
| Games won | 59% | 49% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Alcaraz | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Alcaraz | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 2 | 0 |