Carlos Alcaraz vs Francisco CerundoloPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Carlos Alcaraz and Francisco Cerundolo have met 4 times since 2024; Carlos Alcaraz leads 4–0. Their first meeting came at cinch Championships - London in 2024 on grass. On hard courts Alcaraz leads 2–0. Alcaraz has won the last 4 meetings. Across all meetings Alcaraz has taken 8 sets to Cerundolo's 1. Their most recent meeting: Carlos Alcaraz won at Laver Cup - San Francisco (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Alcaraz | Cerundolo | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Carlos Alcaraz | Francisco Cerundolo | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 72% | 18/25 | 73% | 22/30 |
| Wins a set when losing | 40% | 2/5 | 33% | 6/18 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 30% | 9/30 | 29% | 14/48 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 64% | 18/28 | 63% | 17/27 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 0% | 0/2 | 55% | 11/20 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 54% | 7/13 | 47% | 7/15 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 95% | 21/22 | 84% | 27/32 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 82% | 18/22 | 69% | 22/32 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 4 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Alcaraz 3, Cerundolo 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Alcaraz
👑 The Complete Package
Cerundolo
🪃 Counterpuncher
Matchup analysis
The 👑 The Complete Package archetype wins about 53% vs 🪃 Counterpuncher across 1,744 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Carlos Alcaraz.
The Complete Package players often use elite serve & return and high bp conversion to pressure the counterpuncher's elite bp conversion.
Previous meetings
4 career meetings, newest first
Sep 21, 2025
Laver Cup - San Francisco
H Hard · Round Robin
Apr 9, 2025
Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Monte-Carlo
C Clay · 2nd Round
Mar 13, 2025
BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Jun 18, 2024
cinch Championships - London
G Grass · 1st Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Alcaraz | Cerundolo | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Carlos Alcaraz | Francisco Cerundolo | ||
| 1 or more | 92% | 11/12 | 85% | 11/13 |
| 3 or more | 75% | 9/12 | 77% | 10/13 |
| 5 or more | 25% | 3/12 | 62% | 8/13 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/12 | 15% | 2/13 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/12 | 8% | 1/13 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/12 | 0% | 0/13 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Alcaraz | Cerundolo |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 11–1 | 8–7 |
| Avg odds | 1.15 | 2.17 |
| ROI % | +4.3% | +14.1% |
| Units P/L | +0.51u | +2.12u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Alcaraz | Cerundolo |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 3 | 2 |
| Events | 3 | 3 |
| Matches | 7 | 6 |
| Distance | 7,032 mi · 11,317 km | 5,722 mi · 9,208 km |
| Route | GBR → JPN → CHN | GBR → CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Alcaraz has a higher win rate against shared opponents (90% vs Cerundolo's 40%).
| Opponent | Alcaraz | Cerundolo |
|---|---|---|
| Roman Safiullin | W 64 64 64 | W 76 63 |
| Jaume Munar | W 57 63 61 | L 16 46 36 |
| Daniil Medvedev | L 36 67 | L 67 36 |
| Alex Michelsen | W 76 46 61 | L 36 46 |
| Taylor Fritz | W 63 46 1311 | W 36 46 63 64 64 |
| Casper Ruud | W 61 76 | L 76 46 810 |
| Tommy Paul | W 64 63 64 | W 67 64 63 |
| Alex de Minaur | W 75 62 61 | L 63 46 36 |
| Lorenzo Musetti | W 64 61 | L 67 46 |
| Yannick Hanfmann | W 76 63 62 | W 61 75 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Juan Manuel Cerundolo
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Jiri Lehecka
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · Final
Oct 6
Jaume Munar
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · Semifinals
Oct 5
Denis Shapovalov
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · Quarterfinals
Oct 4
Matteo Arnaldi
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Alex Michelsen
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Oct 1
Taylor Fritz
Laver Cup - London · Round Robin
Sep 26
Ben Shelton
U.S. Open - New York · Quarterfinals
Sep 9
Jakub Mensik
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 11
Roman Safiullin
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 9
Daniil Medvedev
China Open - Beijing · Quarterfinals
Oct 4
Jakub Mensik
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Botic van de Zandschulp
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 1
Casper Ruud
Laver Cup - London · Round Robin
Sep 25
Mert Alkaya
Davis Cup, Group I, 1R, ARG-TUR 3-1 · Rubber 4
Sep 20
Yanki Erel
Davis Cup, Group I, 1R, ARG-TUR 3-1 · Rubber 1
Sep 19
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 42–60 matches
| Metric | Alcaraz | Cerundolo |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 86% | 63% |
| Sets won | 78% | 60% |
| Games won | 59% | 54% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Alcaraz | Cerundolo |
|---|---|---|
| ATP 500 | 1 | 0 |
| Other | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 2 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Alcaraz | Cerundolo |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 2 | 0 |
| Clay | 1 | 0 |
| Grass | 1 | 0 |
Share this matchup
Copy the link to paste in Discord or group chats.