Carlos Alcaraz vs Frances TiafoePrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Carlos Alcaraz and Frances Tiafoe have met 3 times since 2021; Carlos Alcaraz leads 2–1. Their first meeting came at Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell - Barcelona in 2021 on clay. Alcaraz has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings Alcaraz has taken 6 sets to Tiafoe's 6. Their most recent meeting: Carlos Alcaraz won at Wimbledon - London (2024).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Alcaraz | Tiafoe | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Carlos Alcaraz | Frances Tiafoe | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 72% | 18/25 | 61% | 20/33 |
| Wins a set when losing | 40% | 2/5 | 36% | 5/14 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 30% | 9/30 | 38% | 18/47 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 64% | 18/28 | 54% | 15/28 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 0% | 0/2 | 68% | 13/19 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 54% | 7/13 | 50% | 10/20 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 95% | 21/22 | 96% | 27/28 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 82% | 18/22 | 71% | 20/28 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 1 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Alcaraz 0, Tiafoe 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Alcaraz
👑 The Complete Package
Tiafoe
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
The 💥 Big Hitter archetype wins about 53% vs 👑 The Complete Package across 1,618 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Frances Tiafoe.
Big Hitter players often use power groundstrokes and high winner count to pressure the the complete package's elite serve & return.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Jul 5, 2024
Wimbledon - London
G Grass · 3rd Round
Sep 9, 2022
U.S. Open - New York
H Hard · Semifinals
Apr 20, 2021
Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell - Barcelona
C Clay · 1st Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Alcaraz | Tiafoe | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Carlos Alcaraz | Frances Tiafoe | ||
| 1 or more | 92% | 11/12 | 100% | 18/18 |
| 3 or more | 75% | 9/12 | 89% | 16/18 |
| 5 or more | 25% | 3/12 | 56% | 10/18 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/12 | 17% | 3/18 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/12 | 0% | 0/18 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/12 | 0% | 0/18 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Alcaraz | Tiafoe |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 11–1 | 13–5 |
| Avg odds | 1.15 | 2.04 |
| ROI % | +4.3% | +23.4% |
| Units P/L | +0.51u | +4.21u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Alcaraz | Tiafoe |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 3 | 2 |
| Events | 3 | 2 |
| Matches | 7 | 4 |
| Distance | 7,032 mi · 11,317 km | 1,092 mi · 1,758 km |
| Route | GBR → JPN → CHN | JPN → CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Alcaraz has a higher win rate against shared opponents (80% vs Tiafoe's 50%).
| Opponent | Alcaraz | Tiafoe |
|---|---|---|
| Yannick Hanfmann | W 76 63 62 | W 64 64 |
| Jiri Lehecka | W 76 64 | L 46 67 |
| Matteo Arnaldi | W 76 61 | L 67 76 63 67 46 |
| Arthur Fils | W 62 61 | L 36 57 |
| Alex Michelsen | W 76 46 61 | W 57 36 75 63 76 |
| Taylor Fritz | W 63 46 1311 | W 64 64 |
| Ben Shelton | L 76 16 36 61 67 | L 64 36 36 57 |
| Tommy Paul | W 64 63 64 | L 57 64 67 |
| Daniil Medvedev | L 36 67 | W 76 64 76 |
| Valentin Vacherot | W 64 64 | W 64 62 64 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Juan Manuel Cerundolo
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Jiri Lehecka
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · Final
Oct 6
Jaume Munar
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · Semifinals
Oct 5
Denis Shapovalov
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · Quarterfinals
Oct 4
Matteo Arnaldi
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Alex Michelsen
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Oct 1
Taylor Fritz
Laver Cup - London · Round Robin
Sep 26
Ben Shelton
U.S. Open - New York · Quarterfinals
Sep 9
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 11
Yannick Hanfmann
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 9
Arthur Fils
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 2nd Round
Oct 2
Kei Nishikori
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Oct 1
Ben Shelton
U.S. Open - New York · Semifinals
Sep 11
Alex Michelsen
U.S. Open - New York · Quarterfinals
Sep 8
Daniil Medvedev
U.S. Open - New York · 4th Round
Sep 6
Valentin Vacherot
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 5
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 42–63 matches
| Metric | Alcaraz | Tiafoe |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 86% | 71% |
| Sets won | 78% | 63% |
| Games won | 59% | 54% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Alcaraz | Tiafoe |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 2 | 0 |
| ATP 500 | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Alcaraz | Tiafoe |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 0 |
| Clay | 0 | 1 |
| Grass | 1 | 0 |
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