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Head-to-Head

Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis ShapovalovPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats

Carlos Alcaraz

🇪🇸Carlos Alcaraz

#3 · 23 yrs · R

4
3–0

3 meetings · sets 5–0

Denis Shapovalov

🇨🇦Denis Shapovalov

#46 · 27 yrs · L

Carlos Alcaraz and Denis Shapovalov have met 3 times since 2023; Carlos Alcaraz leads 3–0. Their first meeting came at French Open - Paris in 2023 on clay. On hard courts Alcaraz leads 2–0. Alcaraz has won the last 3 meetings. Across all meetings Alcaraz has taken 5 sets to Shapovalov's 0. Their most recent meeting: Carlos Alcaraz won at Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo (2026).

Spread & Straight-Sets Form

Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months

IndicatorAlcarazShapovalov
Wins in straight sets73%48%
Wins a set when losing40%33%
Goes to a deciding set30%44%
Covers −1.5 sets as favorite64%37%
Covers +1.5 sets as underdog0%64%
Tiebreak sets won50%62%
Wins after taking set 195%83%
Wins 2-0 after taking set 180%48%

Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 1 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Alcaraz 1, Shapovalov 0).

Style Matchup

Playing styles and historical archetype record

Alcaraz

👑 The Complete Package

Elite serve & returnHigh BP conversionAll-surface dominanceClutch performer
vs

Shapovalov

💥 Big Hitter

Power groundstrokesHigh winner countAggressive shotsShort rallies

Matchup analysis

👑 The Complete Package vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (48% vs 52%, 1,581 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.

Previous meetings

3 career meetings, newest first

Oct 4, 2026

Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo

H Hard · Quarterfinals

Alcaraz

Mar 10, 2025

BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells

H Hard · 3rd Round

62
64
Alcaraz

Jun 2, 2023

French Open - Paris

C Clay · 3rd Round

61
64
62
Alcaraz

Prop Research

Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days

OutcomeAlcarazShapovalov
1 or more89%100%
3 or more67%82%
5 or more22%71%
10 or more0%41%
15 or more0%6%
20 or more0%0%

Player ROI

Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days

MetricAlcarazShapovalov
W-L8–112–5
Avg odds1.152.15
ROI %+1.1%+12.3%
Units P/L+0.10u+2.09u

Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.

Travel

Last 30 days

MetricAlcarazShapovalov
Countries33
Events33
Matches78
Distance9,401 mi · 15,129 km9,590 mi · 15,433 km
RouteUSA → GBR → JPNUSA → CHN → JPN

Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.

Common opponents

Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months

Alcaraz has a higher win rate against shared opponents (78% vs Shapovalov's 33%).

OpponentAlcarazShapovalov
Ben Shelton
L
76
16
36
61
67
L
67
76
36
46
Jaime Faria
W
46
60
63
62
L
46
57
46
Cameron Norrie
W
63
64
W
63
57
64
Alex de Minaur
W
75
62
61
L
46
16
Jannik Sinner
L
67
36
L
36
26
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
W
61
46
63
W
63
26
76
Joao Fonseca
W
64
64
L
75
46
36
Casper Ruud
W
61
76
L
36
46
Valentin Royer
W
62
75
W
76
62

Recent Form

Last five matches per player

Alcaraz
WWWWLWWW
W

Denis Shapovalov

Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · Quarterfinals

Oct 4

W

Matteo Arnaldi

Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 2nd Round

766
61

Oct 3

W

Alex Michelsen

Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round

761
46
61

Oct 1

W

Taylor Fritz

Laver Cup - London · Round Robin

63
46
1311

Sep 26

L

Ben Shelton

U.S. Open - New York · Quarterfinals

765
16
36
61
67

Sep 9

W

Tommy Paul

U.S. Open - New York · 4th Round

64
63
64

Sep 6

W

Yibing Wu

U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round

63
64
61

Sep 4

W

Jaime Faria

U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round

46
60
63
62

Sep 3

Shapovalov
LWWLWWWL
L

Carlos Alcaraz

Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · Quarterfinals

Oct 4

W

Alejandro Tabilo

Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 2nd Round

75
36
64

Oct 3

W

Sho Shimabukuro

Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round

75
61

Oct 1

L

Hubert Hurkacz

Chengdu Open - Chengdu · Semifinals

768
36
36

Sep 28

W

Adrian Mannarino

Chengdu Open - Chengdu · Quarterfinals

667
63
62

Sep 27

W

Vit Kopriva

Chengdu Open - Chengdu · 2nd Round

62
63

Sep 25

W

Tallon Griekspoor

Chengdu Open - Chengdu · 1st Round

64
763

Sep 24

L

Ben Shelton

U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round

637
765
36
46

Sep 5

Matchup videos

Rivalry momentum

Cumulative head-to-head lead over time

↑ AlcarazAlcaraz ahead↓ Shapovalov

Win rate

Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 39–47 matches

MetricAlcarazShapovalov
Matches won85%55%
Sets won78%52%
Games won59%51%

Record by tier

Head-to-head record by tournament tier

StageAlcarazShapovalov
Grand Slam10
ATP 50010
ATP Masters 100010

By surface

Head-to-head record per surface

SurfaceAlcarazShapovalov
Hard20
Clay10

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Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov FAQ

Carlos Alcaraz leads the head-to-head 3–0 over 3 meetings.