Brandon Nakashima vs Matteo ArnaldiPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Brandon Nakashima and Matteo Arnaldi have met 3 times since 2022; Brandon Nakashima leads 2–1. Their first meeting came at Next Gen ATP Finals - Milan in 2022 on hard. On hard courts Nakashima leads 2–1. Across all meetings Nakashima has taken 5 sets to Arnaldi's 4. Their most recent meeting: Brandon Nakashima won at BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Nakashima | Arnaldi | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Brandon Nakashima | Matteo Arnaldi | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 74% | 23/31 | 42% | 8/19 |
| Wins a set when losing | 40% | 8/20 | 56% | 10/18 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 31% | 16/51 | 57% | 21/37 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 55% | 18/33 | 31% | 5/16 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 75% | 12/16 | 67% | 12/18 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 50% | 14/28 | 62% | 13/21 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 85% | 28/33 | 87% | 13/15 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 70% | 23/33 | 53% | 8/15 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 2 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Nakashima 1, Arnaldi 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Nakashima
🤖 Servebot
Arnaldi
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
🤖 Servebot vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (51% vs 49%, 4,932 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Mar 10, 2025
BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells
H Hard · 3rd Round
Feb 14, 2025
Delray Beach Open - Delray Beach
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Nov 8, 2022
Next Gen ATP Finals - Milan
H Hard · Round Robin
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Nakashima | Arnaldi | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Brandon Nakashima | Matteo Arnaldi | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 21/21 | 100% | 8/8 |
| 3 or more | 95% | 20/21 | 88% | 7/8 |
| 5 or more | 91% | 19/21 | 63% | 5/8 |
| 10 or more | 52% | 11/21 | 13% | 1/8 |
| 15 or more | 10% | 2/21 | 0% | 0/8 |
| 20 or more | 5% | 1/21 | 0% | 0/8 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Nakashima | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 15–6 | 3–5 |
| Avg odds | 1.84 | 3.31 |
| ROI % | +27.8% | -27.4% |
| Units P/L | +5.84u | -2.19u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Nakashima | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 3 | 2 |
| Events | 3 | 2 |
| Matches | 4 | 4 |
| Distance | 7,032 mi · 11,317 km | 1,092 mi · 1,758 km |
| Route | GBR → JPN → CHN | JPN → CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Nakashima has a higher win rate against shared opponents (70% vs Arnaldi's 60%).
| Opponent | Nakashima | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Taylor Fritz | W 76 46 63 | L 57 46 |
| Matteo Berrettini | W 76 75 | W |
| Frances Tiafoe | L 57 36 | W 76 67 36 76 64 |
| Nuno Borges | W 63 67 63 | W 63 67 76 |
| Aleksandar Kovacevic | W 62 75 | W 75 64 |
| Rafael Jodar | W 76 64 | L 16 64 36 |
| Tallon Griekspoor | L 67 67 | L 63 46 36 |
| Fabian Marozsan | L 67 16 | W 75 26 64 |
| Alex de Minaur | W 76 64 | W 46 76 64 |
| Quentin Halys | W 62 64 | L 63 16 67 36 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Alexander Bublik
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 11
Matteo Berrettini
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 9
Ugo Humbert
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Oct 1
Jakub Mensik
Laver Cup - London · Round Robin
Sep 25
Alex Michelsen
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 2
Sebastian Baez
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 31
Frances Tiafoe
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Semifinals
Aug 23
Taylor Fritz
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 21
Taylor Fritz
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Bernard Tomic
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 8
Carlos Alcaraz
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Rei Sakamoto
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Sep 30
James Duckworth
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 31
Martin Landaluce
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Tallon Griekspoor
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Fabian Marozsan
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 6
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 44–59 matches
| Metric | Nakashima | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 59% | 52% |
| Sets won | 58% | 50% |
| Games won | 53% | 49% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Nakashima | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| ATP 250 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 1 | 0 |
| Other | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Nakashima | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 2 | 1 |
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