Brandon Nakashima vs Matteo ArnaldiPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Brandon Nakashima and Matteo Arnaldi have met 3 times since 2022; Brandon Nakashima leads 2–1. Their first meeting came at Next Gen ATP Finals - Milan in 2022 on hard. On hard courts Nakashima leads 2–1. Across all meetings Nakashima has taken 5 sets to Arnaldi's 4. Their most recent meeting: Brandon Nakashima won at BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Nakashima | Arnaldi | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Brandon Nakashima | Matteo Arnaldi | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 74% | 25/34 | 41% | 7/17 |
| Wins a set when losing | 33% | 7/21 | 58% | 11/19 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 29% | 16/55 | 58% | 21/36 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 54% | 20/37 | 24% | 4/17 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 69% | 11/16 | 63% | 10/16 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 50% | 15/30 | 60% | 12/20 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 88% | 30/34 | 87% | 13/15 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 74% | 25/34 | 47% | 7/15 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 2 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Nakashima 1, Arnaldi 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Nakashima
🤖 Servebot
Arnaldi
⚙️ Grinder
Matchup analysis
The 🤖 Servebot archetype wins about 56% vs ⚙️ Grinder across 1,470 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Brandon Nakashima.
Servebot players often use high ace rate and dominant service to pressure the grinder's relentless consistency.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Mar 10, 2025
BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells
H Hard · 3rd Round
Feb 14, 2025
Delray Beach Open - Delray Beach
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Nov 8, 2022
Next Gen ATP Finals - Milan
H Hard · Round Robin
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Nakashima | Arnaldi | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Brandon Nakashima | Matteo Arnaldi | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 21/21 | 100% | 11/11 |
| 3 or more | 100% | 21/21 | 91% | 10/11 |
| 5 or more | 91% | 19/21 | 73% | 8/11 |
| 10 or more | 43% | 9/21 | 27% | 3/11 |
| 15 or more | 14% | 3/21 | 9% | 1/11 |
| 20 or more | 10% | 2/21 | 0% | 0/11 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Nakashima | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 16–5 | 3–5 |
| Avg odds | 1.87 | 1.87 |
| ROI % | +38.6% | -33.3% |
| Units P/L | +8.10u | -2.66u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Nakashima | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 3 | 2 |
| Matches | 13 | 3 |
| Distance | 1,200 mi · 1,932 km | 712 mi · 1,146 km |
| Route | USA → CAN → USA | CAN → USA |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Nakashima has a higher win rate against shared opponents (70% vs Arnaldi's 60%).
| Opponent | Nakashima | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Frances Tiafoe | L 57 36 | W 76 67 36 76 64 |
| Nuno Borges | W 63 67 63 | W 63 67 76 |
| Aleksandar Kovacevic | W 62 75 | W 75 64 |
| Rafael Jodar | W 76 64 | L 16 64 36 |
| Tallon Griekspoor | L 67 67 | L 63 46 36 |
| Fabian Marozsan | L 67 16 | W 75 26 64 |
| Alex de Minaur | W 76 64 | W 46 76 64 |
| Quentin Halys | W 62 64 | L 63 16 67 36 |
| Marton Fucsovics | W 63 63 | L 57 26 |
| Raphael Collignon | W 63 63 | W 64 67 57 64 76 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Frances Tiafoe
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Semifinals
Aug 23
Taylor Fritz
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 21
Nuno Borges
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Daniil Medvedev
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Aleksandar Kovacevic
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Ben Shelton
National Bank Open - Montreal · Final
Aug 14
Rafael Jodar
National Bank Open - Montreal · Semifinals
Aug 13
Luciano Darderi
National Bank Open - Montreal · Quarterfinals
Aug 11
Martin Landaluce
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Tallon Griekspoor
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Fabian Marozsan
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 6
Damir Dzumhur
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · Quarterfinals
Jul 16
Federico Agustin Gomez
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · 2nd Round
Jul 15
Quentin Halys
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 30
Giles Hussey
Lexus Eastbourne Open - Eastbourne · 1st Round
Jun 23
Matteo Berrettini
Roland Garros · Quarterfinals
Jun 3
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 42–61 matches
| Metric | Nakashima | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 61% | 50% |
| Sets won | 59% | 49% |
| Games won | 53% | 49% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Nakashima | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| ATP 250 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 1 | 0 |
| Other | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Nakashima | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 2 | 1 |
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