Brandon Nakashima vs Denis ShapovalovPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Brandon Nakashima and Denis Shapovalov have met 3 times since 2022; Brandon Nakashima leads 2–1. Their first meeting came at Wimbledon - London in 2022 on grass. Across all meetings Nakashima has taken 7 sets to Shapovalov's 4. Their most recent meeting: Brandon Nakashima won at National Bank Open - Montreal (2024).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Nakashima | Shapovalov | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Brandon Nakashima | Denis Shapovalov | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 74% | 23/31 | 45% | 10/22 |
| Wins a set when losing | 40% | 8/20 | 35% | 6/17 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 31% | 16/51 | 46% | 18/39 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 55% | 18/33 | 35% | 9/26 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 75% | 12/16 | 69% | 9/13 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 50% | 14/28 | 62% | 8/13 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 85% | 28/33 | 82% | 18/22 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 70% | 23/33 | 45% | 10/22 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 1 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Nakashima 1, Shapovalov 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Nakashima
🤖 Servebot
Shapovalov
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
🤖 Servebot vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (51% vs 49%, 4,932 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Aug 7, 2024
National Bank Open - Montreal
H Hard · 1st Round
May 29, 2023
French Open - Paris
C Clay · 1st Round
Jun 30, 2022
Wimbledon - London
G Grass · 2nd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Nakashima | Shapovalov | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Brandon Nakashima | Denis Shapovalov | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 21/21 | 100% | 17/17 |
| 3 or more | 95% | 20/21 | 82% | 14/17 |
| 5 or more | 91% | 19/21 | 71% | 12/17 |
| 10 or more | 52% | 11/21 | 41% | 7/17 |
| 15 or more | 10% | 2/21 | 6% | 1/17 |
| 20 or more | 5% | 1/21 | 0% | 0/17 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Nakashima | Shapovalov |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 15–6 | 12–5 |
| Avg odds | 1.84 | 2.15 |
| ROI % | +27.8% | +12.3% |
| Units P/L | +5.84u | +2.09u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Nakashima | Shapovalov |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 3 | 2 |
| Events | 3 | 2 |
| Matches | 4 | 7 |
| Distance | 7,032 mi · 11,317 km | 2,080 mi · 3,347 km |
| Route | GBR → JPN → CHN | CHN → JPN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Nakashima has a higher win rate against shared opponents (60% vs Shapovalov's 50%).
| Opponent | Nakashima | Shapovalov |
|---|---|---|
| Tallon Griekspoor | L 67 67 | W 64 76 |
| Ben Shelton | L 36 67 | L 67 76 36 46 |
| Luca Van Assche | W 67 64 57 61 63 | W 60 64 76 |
| Aleksandar Kovacevic | W 62 75 | W 64 64 |
| Rafael Jodar | W 76 64 | L 57 64 57 |
| Alex de Minaur | W 76 64 | L 46 16 |
| Tomas Martin Etcheverry | W 63 64 | W 63 26 76 |
| Jack Pinnington Jones | W 63 76 75 | W 64 46 76 |
| Marin Cilic | L 62 46 67 | L 76 46 57 |
| Alexander Blockx | L 63 36 46 | L 46 64 36 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Alexander Bublik
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 11
Matteo Berrettini
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 9
Ugo Humbert
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Oct 1
Jakub Mensik
Laver Cup - London · Round Robin
Sep 25
Alex Michelsen
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 2
Sebastian Baez
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 31
Frances Tiafoe
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Semifinals
Aug 23
Taylor Fritz
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 21
Carlos Alcaraz
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · Quarterfinals
Oct 4
Alejandro Tabilo
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Sho Shimabukuro
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Oct 1
Hubert Hurkacz
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · Semifinals
Sep 28
Adrian Mannarino
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · Quarterfinals
Sep 27
Vit Kopriva
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · 2nd Round
Sep 25
Tallon Griekspoor
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · 1st Round
Sep 24
Ben Shelton
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 5
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 45–59 matches
| Metric | Nakashima | Shapovalov |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 59% | 56% |
| Sets won | 58% | 52% |
| Games won | 53% | 51% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Nakashima | Shapovalov |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 1 | 1 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Nakashima | Shapovalov |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 0 |
| Clay | 0 | 1 |
| Grass | 1 | 0 |
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