Andrey Rublev vs Sebastian BaezPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Andrey Rublev and Sebastian Baez have met 2 times since 2022; they are level 1–1. Their first meeting came at Nordea Open - Bastad in 2022 on clay. On clay courts they are level 1–1. Across all meetings Rublev has taken 2 sets to Baez's 2. Their most recent meeting: Andrey Rublev won at Nordea Open - Bastad (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Rublev | Baez | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Andrey Rublev | Sebastian Baez | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 71% | 17/24 | 76% | 26/34 |
| Wins a set when losing | 39% | 7/18 | 19% | 5/26 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 33% | 14/42 | 22% | 13/60 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 47% | 17/36 | 63% | 17/27 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 17% | 1/6 | 52% | 15/29 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 44% | 8/18 | 64% | 7/11 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 81% | 21/26 | 85% | 29/34 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 65% | 17/26 | 76% | 26/34 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 2 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Rublev 1, Baez 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Rublev
🤖 Servebot
Baez
🎾 All-Court
Matchup analysis
The 🤖 Servebot archetype wins about 55% vs 🎾 All-Court across 752 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Andrey Rublev.
Servebot players often use high ace rate and dominant service to pressure the all-court's tactical versatility.
Previous meetings
2 career meetings, newest first
Jul 17, 2026
Nordea Open - Bastad
C Clay · Quarterfinals
Jul 16, 2022
Nordea Open - Bastad
C Clay · Semifinals
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Rublev | Baez | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Andrey Rublev | Sebastian Baez | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 11/11 | 76% | 16/21 |
| 3 or more | 100% | 11/11 | 29% | 6/21 |
| 5 or more | 82% | 9/11 | 10% | 2/21 |
| 10 or more | 36% | 4/11 | 0% | 0/21 |
| 15 or more | 18% | 2/11 | 0% | 0/21 |
| 20 or more | 9% | 1/11 | 0% | 0/21 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Rublev | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 6–5 | 14–6 |
| Avg odds | 1.44 | 1.90 |
| ROI % | -22.6% | +8.8% |
| Units P/L | -2.48u | +1.76u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Rublev | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 3 |
| Events | 2 | 4 |
| Matches | 3 | 9 |
| Distance | 712 mi · 1,146 km | 3,066 mi · 4,934 km |
| Route | CAN → USA | CAN → USA → MEX → USA |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Rublev has a higher win rate against shared opponents (70% vs Baez's 40%).
| Opponent | Rublev | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Hubert Hurkacz | L 36 26 | L 64 06 36 |
| Pablo Carreno Busta | W 76 61 | L 75 57 57 |
| Learner Tien | W 64 64 | L 36 67 |
| Zizou Bergs | L 46 16 | L 63 36 26 |
| Arthur Rinderknech | W 62 64 | W 76 26 64 |
| Miomir Kecmanovic | W 64 64 | W 63 36 64 |
| Luciano Darderi | W 64 63 | L 46 36 |
| Alejandro Tabilo | W 64 46 64 | W 76 61 |
| Jesper de Jong | W 64 63 | W 64 62 |
| Jakub Mensik | L 36 67 64 62 36 | L 36 67 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Nuno Borges
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Pablo Carreno Busta
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Juncheng Shang
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 4
Luca Van Assche
Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril · Quarterfinals
Jul 24
Timofey Skatov
Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril · 2nd Round
Jul 23
Luciano Darderi
Nordea Open - Bastad · Final
Jul 19
Alejandro Tabilo
Nordea Open - Bastad · Semifinals
Jul 18
Sebastian Baez
Nordea Open - Bastad · Quarterfinals
Jul 17
Hugo Grenier
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 2nd Round
Aug 26
Hubert Hurkacz
Cancun Challenger · Final
Aug 24
Lloyd Harris
Cancun Challenger · Semifinals
Aug 23
Chak Pong Marco Lam
Cancun Challenger · Quarterfinals
Aug 22
Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez
Cancun Challenger · 2nd Round
Aug 21
Learner Tien
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Grigor Dimitrov
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 14
Zizou Bergs
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 51–64 matches
| Metric | Rublev | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 57% | 55% |
| Sets won | 56% | 53% |
| Games won | 52% | 50% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Rublev | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| ATP 250 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP World Tour 250 | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Rublev | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Clay | 1 | 1 |
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