Andrey Rublev vs Rafael NadalPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Andrey Rublev and Rafael Nadal have met 3 times since 2017; Rafael Nadal leads 2–1. Their first meeting came at US Open in 2017 on hard. On hard courts Nadal leads 2–0. Across all meetings Rublev has taken 2 sets to Nadal's 6. Their most recent meeting: Andrey Rublev won at Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Monte-Carlo (2021).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Rublev | Nadal | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Andrey Rublev | Rafael Nadal | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 71% | 17/24 | — | |
| Wins a set when losing | 39% | 7/18 | — | |
| Goes to a deciding set | 33% | 14/42 | — | |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 47% | 17/36 | — | |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 17% | 1/6 | — | |
| Tiebreak sets won | 44% | 8/18 | — | |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 81% | 21/26 | — | |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 65% | 17/26 | — | |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Small sample — read with care. Head-to-head: 1 of 2 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Rublev 0, Nadal 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Rublev
💥 Big Hitter
Nadal
👑 The Complete Package
Matchup analysis
💥 Big Hitter vs 👑 The Complete Package is historically tight (50% vs 50%, 1,534 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Apr 16, 2021
Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Monte-Carlo
C Clay · Quarterfinals
Nov 15, 2020
Nitto ATP Finals - London
H Hard · Round Robin
Sep 6, 2017
US Open
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Rublev | Nadal |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 7–6 | - |
| Avg odds | 1.43 | - |
| ROI % | -25.5% | - |
| Units P/L | -3.32u | - |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Rublev | Nadal |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | — |
| Events | 2 | — |
| Matches | 4 | — |
| Distance | 567 mi · 913 km | — |
| Route | USA | — |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Daniel Merida Aguilar
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 2
Otto Virtanen
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 31
Nuno Borges
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Pablo Carreno Busta
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Juncheng Shang
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 4
Luca Van Assche
Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril · Quarterfinals
Jul 24
Timofey Skatov
Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril · 2nd Round
Jul 23
Luciano Darderi
Nordea Open - Bastad · Final
Jul 19
Botic van de Zandschulp
Davis Cup, World Group, QF, NED-ESP 2-1 · Rubber 1
Nov 19
Novak Djokovic
Olympics - Paris · 2nd Round
Jul 29
Marton Fucsovics
Olympics - Paris · 1st Round
Jul 28
Nuno Borges
Nordea Open - Bastad · Final
Jul 21
Duje Ajdukovic
Nordea Open - Bastad · Semifinals
Jul 20
Mariano Navone
Nordea Open - Bastad · Quarterfinals
Jul 19
Cameron Norrie
Nordea Open - Bastad · 2nd Round
Jul 18
Leo Borg
Nordea Open - Bastad · 1st Round
Jul 16
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 52–52 matches
| Metric | Rublev | Nadal |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 58% | - |
| Sets won | 57% | - |
| Games won | 52% | - |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Rublev | Nadal |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 0 | 1 |
| ATP Finals | 0 | 1 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Rublev | Nadal |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 2 |
| Clay | 1 | 0 |
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