Andrey Rublev vs Rafael NadalPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Andrey Rublev and Rafael Nadal have met 3 times since 2017; Rafael Nadal leads 2–1. Their first meeting came at US Open in 2017 on hard. On hard courts Nadal leads 2–0. Across all meetings Rublev has taken 2 sets to Nadal's 6. Their most recent meeting: Andrey Rublev won at Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Monte-Carlo (2021).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Rublev | Nadal | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Andrey Rublev | Rafael Nadal | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 66% | 19/29 | — | |
| Wins a set when losing | 39% | 7/18 | — | |
| Goes to a deciding set | 36% | 17/47 | — | |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 49% | 19/39 | — | |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 25% | 2/8 | — | |
| Tiebreak sets won | 55% | 11/20 | — | |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 83% | 25/30 | — | |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 63% | 19/30 | — | |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Small sample — read with care. Head-to-head: 1 of 2 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Rublev 0, Nadal 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Rublev
💥 Big Hitter
Nadal
👑 The Complete Package
Matchup analysis
The 💥 Big Hitter archetype wins about 53% vs 👑 The Complete Package across 1,618 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Andrey Rublev.
Big Hitter players often use power groundstrokes and high winner count to pressure the the complete package's elite serve & return.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Apr 16, 2021
Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Monte-Carlo
C Clay · Quarterfinals
Nov 15, 2020
Nitto ATP Finals - London
H Hard · Round Robin
Sep 6, 2017
US Open
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Rublev | Nadal |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 10–7 | - |
| Avg odds | 1.50 | - |
| ROI % | -19.1% | - |
| Units P/L | -3.24u | - |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Rublev | Nadal |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | — |
| Events | 3 | — |
| Matches | 8 | — |
| Distance | 1,361 mi · 2,191 km | — |
| Route | CHN | — |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Rei Sakamoto
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 9
Alex de Minaur
China Open - Beijing · Quarterfinals
Oct 4
Roman Safiullin
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Tallon Griekspoor
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 1
Daniil Medvedev
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · Final
Sep 29
Kyrian Jacquet
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · Semifinals
Sep 28
Hugo Gaston
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · Quarterfinals
Sep 27
Rinky Hijikata
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · 2nd Round
Sep 25
Botic van de Zandschulp
Davis Cup, World Group, QF, NED-ESP 2-1 · Rubber 1
Nov 19
Novak Djokovic
Olympics - Paris · 2nd Round
Jul 29
Marton Fucsovics
Olympics - Paris · 1st Round
Jul 28
Nuno Borges
Nordea Open - Bastad · Final
Jul 21
Duje Ajdukovic
Nordea Open - Bastad · Semifinals
Jul 20
Mariano Navone
Nordea Open - Bastad · Quarterfinals
Jul 19
Cameron Norrie
Nordea Open - Bastad · 2nd Round
Jul 18
Leo Borg
Nordea Open - Bastad · 1st Round
Jul 16
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 57–57 matches
| Metric | Rublev | Nadal |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 61% | - |
| Sets won | 58% | - |
| Games won | 53% | - |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Rublev | Nadal |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 0 | 1 |
| ATP Finals | 0 | 1 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Rublev | Nadal |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 2 |
| Clay | 1 | 0 |
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