Andrey Rublev vs Lorenzo MusettiPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Andrey Rublev and Lorenzo Musetti have met 2 times since 2020; they are level 1–1. Their first meeting came at Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships - Dubai in 2020 on hard. On hard courts they are level 1–1. Across all meetings Rublev has taken 3 sets to Musetti's 2. Their most recent meeting: Lorenzo Musetti won at Hong Kong Tennis Open - Hong Kong (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Rublev | Musetti | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Andrey Rublev | Lorenzo Musetti | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 71% | 17/24 | 72% | 21/29 |
| Wins a set when losing | 39% | 7/18 | 24% | 4/17 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 33% | 14/42 | 26% | 12/46 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 47% | 17/36 | 59% | 20/34 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 17% | 1/6 | 30% | 3/10 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 44% | 8/18 | 47% | 7/15 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 81% | 21/26 | 90% | 26/29 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 65% | 17/26 | 72% | 21/29 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 2 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Rublev 1, Musetti 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Rublev
🤖 Servebot
Musetti
🎯 Baseliner
Matchup analysis
🤖 Servebot vs 🎯 Baseliner is historically tight (52% vs 48%, 1,749 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
2 career meetings, newest first
Jan 10, 2026
Hong Kong Tennis Open - Hong Kong
H Hard · Semifinals
Feb 24, 2020
Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships - Dubai
H Hard · 1st Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Rublev | Musetti | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Andrey Rublev | Lorenzo Musetti | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 11/11 | 88% | 7/8 |
| 3 or more | 100% | 11/11 | 63% | 5/8 |
| 5 or more | 82% | 9/11 | 25% | 2/8 |
| 10 or more | 36% | 4/11 | 0% | 0/8 |
| 15 or more | 18% | 2/11 | 0% | 0/8 |
| 20 or more | 9% | 1/11 | 0% | 0/8 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Rublev | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 6–5 | 5–3 |
| Avg odds | 1.44 | 1.62 |
| ROI % | -22.6% | -18.1% |
| Units P/L | -2.48u | -1.45u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Rublev | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 2 | 2 |
| Matches | 3 | 6 |
| Distance | 712 mi · 1,146 km | 712 mi · 1,146 km |
| Route | CAN → USA | CAN → USA |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Musetti has a higher win rate against shared opponents (70% vs Rublev's 50%).
| Opponent | Rublev | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| Jaime Faria | W 64 63 46 75 | W 75 62 |
| Luciano Darderi | W 64 63 | W 75 76 |
| Alejandro Tabilo | W 64 46 64 | L 36 62 67 |
| Hubert Hurkacz | L 36 26 | W 64 76 |
| Jannik Sinner | L 26 46 | L 16 46 26 |
| Nikoloz Basilashvili | W 36 76 62 | W 63 63 |
| Francisco Cerundolo | L 36 67 36 | W 76 64 |
| Tallon Griekspoor | L 57 67 | W 64 75 |
| Arthur Fils | L 26 67 | L 36 46 |
| Hamad Medjedovic | W 36 62 62 | W 64 63 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Nuno Borges
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Pablo Carreno Busta
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Juncheng Shang
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 4
Luca Van Assche
Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril · Quarterfinals
Jul 24
Timofey Skatov
Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril · 2nd Round
Jul 23
Luciano Darderi
Nordea Open - Bastad · Final
Jul 19
Alejandro Tabilo
Nordea Open - Bastad · Semifinals
Jul 18
Sebastian Baez
Nordea Open - Bastad · Quarterfinals
Jul 17
Frances Tiafoe
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 22
Jaime Faria
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Michael Zheng
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Daniel Altmaier
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Rafael Jodar
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Nicolas Mejia
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Rafael Jodar
Citi Open - Washington · Quarterfinals
Jul 31
Aleksandar Vukic
Citi Open - Washington · 2nd Round
Jul 29
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 51–51 matches
| Metric | Rublev | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 57% | 65% |
| Sets won | 56% | 61% |
| Games won | 52% | 53% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Rublev | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| ATP 250 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP World Tour 500 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Rublev | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 1 |
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