Alex de Minaur vs Francisco CerundoloPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Alex de Minaur and Francisco Cerundolo have met 3 times since 2025; Alex de Minaur leads 2–1. Their first meeting came at Australian Open - Melbourne in 2025 on hard. On hard courts they are level 1–1. Across all meetings Minaur has taken 5 sets to Cerundolo's 4. Their most recent meeting: Alex de Minaur won at Hamburg Open - Hamburg (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | de Minaur | Cerundolo | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Alex de Minaur | Francisco Cerundolo | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 68% | 25/37 | 73% | 22/30 |
| Wins a set when losing | 42% | 8/19 | 33% | 6/18 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 36% | 20/56 | 29% | 14/48 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 48% | 23/48 | 63% | 17/27 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 50% | 4/8 | 55% | 11/20 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 73% | 19/26 | 47% | 7/15 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 88% | 30/34 | 84% | 27/32 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 74% | 25/34 | 69% | 22/32 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 2 completed meetings ended in straight sets (de Minaur 0, Cerundolo 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Minaur
🪃 Counterpuncher
Cerundolo
🪃 Counterpuncher
Matchup analysis
Both Alex de Minaur and Francisco Cerundolo are 🪃 Counterpuncher types. Mirror matchups usually come down to execution, fitness, and surface fit, across 5,190 matches in our dataset the historical split is about even.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
May 18, 2026
Hamburg Open - Hamburg
C Clay · 1st Round
Mar 12, 2025
BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells
H Hard · 4th Round
Jan 18, 2025
Australian Open - Melbourne
H Hard · 3rd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Minaur | Cerundolo | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Alex de Minaur | Francisco Cerundolo | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 17/17 | 85% | 11/13 |
| 3 or more | 82% | 14/17 | 77% | 10/13 |
| 5 or more | 47% | 8/17 | 62% | 8/13 |
| 10 or more | 12% | 2/17 | 15% | 2/13 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/17 | 8% | 1/13 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/17 | 0% | 0/13 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Minaur | Cerundolo |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 14–5 | 8–7 |
| Avg odds | 1.58 | 2.17 |
| ROI % | +8.6% | +14.1% |
| Units P/L | +1.64u | +2.12u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Minaur | Cerundolo |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 3 | 3 |
| Matches | 7 | 6 |
| Distance | 5,722 mi · 9,208 km | 5,722 mi · 9,208 km |
| Route | GBR → CHN | GBR → CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Minaur has a higher win rate against shared opponents (70% vs Cerundolo's 60%).
| Opponent | Minaur | Cerundolo |
|---|---|---|
| Jakub Mensik | L 60 26 26 36 | L 36 63 26 |
| Andrey Rublev | W 16 62 63 | W 63 76 63 |
| Mariano Navone | W 76 62 | W 63 64 |
| Botic van de Zandschulp | L 46 57 26 | W 57 64 63 |
| Alexander Zverev | W 26 76 119 | L 75 06 26 |
| Casper Ruud | L 36 36 | L 76 46 810 |
| Alexander Blockx | W 75 76 | L 36 64 57 57 |
| Taylor Fritz | W 76 63 | W 36 46 63 64 64 |
| Filip Misolic | W 64 64 | W 64 63 75 |
| Arthur Fery | W 75 76 | W 76 36 64 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Rei Sakamoto
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 11
Novak Djokovic
China Open - Beijing · Final
Oct 6
Hubert Hurkacz
China Open - Beijing · Semifinals
Oct 5
Andrey Rublev
China Open - Beijing · Quarterfinals
Oct 4
Quentin Halys
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Mariano Navone
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 1
Alexander Zverev
Laver Cup - London · Round Robin
Sep 26
Kamil Majchrzak
Davis Cup, Group I, 1R, AUS-POL 3-1 · Rubber 4
Sep 20
Jakub Mensik
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 11
Roman Safiullin
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 9
Daniil Medvedev
China Open - Beijing · Quarterfinals
Oct 4
Jakub Mensik
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Botic van de Zandschulp
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 1
Casper Ruud
Laver Cup - London · Round Robin
Sep 25
Mert Alkaya
Davis Cup, Group I, 1R, ARG-TUR 3-1 · Rubber 4
Sep 20
Yanki Erel
Davis Cup, Group I, 1R, ARG-TUR 3-1 · Rubber 1
Sep 19
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 60–69 matches
| Metric | Minaur | Cerundolo |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 67% | 63% |
| Sets won | 63% | 60% |
| Games won | 54% | 54% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Minaur | Cerundolo |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 1 | 0 |
| ATP 500 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Minaur | Cerundolo |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 1 |
| Clay | 1 | 0 |
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