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Head-to-Head

Alex de Minaur vs Frances TiafoePrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats

Alex de Minaur

🇦🇺Alex de Minaur

#9 · 27 yrs · R

5–1

6 meetings · sets 13–6

Frances Tiafoe

🇺🇸Frances Tiafoe

#10 · 28 yrs · R

Alex de Minaur and Frances Tiafoe have met 6 times since 2017; Alex de Minaur leads 5–1. Their first meeting came at Brisbane in 2017 on hard. On hard courts Minaur leads 5–1. Minaur has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings Minaur has taken 13 sets to Tiafoe's 6. Their most recent meeting: Alex de Minaur won at Australian Open - Melbourne (2026).

Spread & Straight-Sets Form

Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months

Indicatorde MinaurTiafoe
Wins in straight sets68%61%
Wins a set when losing42%36%
Goes to a deciding set36%38%
Covers −1.5 sets as favorite48%54%
Covers +1.5 sets as underdog50%68%
Tiebreak sets won73%50%
Wins after taking set 188%96%
Wins 2-0 after taking set 174%71%

Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (de Minaur 0, Tiafoe 1).

Style Matchup

Playing styles and historical archetype record

Minaur

🪃 Counterpuncher

Elite BP conversionStrong return gameDefensive consistencyRally tolerance
vs

Tiafoe

💥 Big Hitter

Power groundstrokesHigh winner countAggressive shotsShort rallies

Matchup analysis

🪃 Counterpuncher vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (48% vs 52%, 3,969 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.

Previous meetings

6 career meetings, newest first

Jan 23, 2026

Australian Open - Melbourne

H Hard · 3rd Round

63
64
75
Minaur

Aug 3, 2025

National Bank Open - Toronto

H Hard · 4th Round

62
46
64
Minaur

Nov 3, 2022

Rolex Paris Masters - Paris

H Hard · 3rd Round

36
657
Tiafoe

Nov 8, 2019

Next Gen ATP Finals

H Hard · Semifinals

42
41
04
42
Minaur

Aug 30, 2018

US Open

H Hard · Round of 64

64
60
57
62
Minaur

Jan 1, 2017

Brisbane

H Hard · 2nd Round Qualifying

6477
64
64
Minaur

Prop Research

Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days

OutcomeMinaurTiafoe
1 or more100%100%
3 or more82%89%
5 or more47%56%
10 or more12%17%
15 or more0%0%
20 or more0%0%

Player ROI

Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days

MetricMinaurTiafoe
W-L14–513–5
Avg odds1.582.04
ROI %+8.6%+23.4%
Units P/L+1.64u+4.21u

Travel

Last 30 days

MetricMinaurTiafoe
Countries22
Events32
Matches74
Distance5,722 mi · 9,208 km1,092 mi · 1,758 km
RouteGBR → CHNJPN → CHN

Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.

Common opponents

Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months

Tiafoe has a higher win rate against shared opponents (70% vs Minaur's 60%).

OpponentMinaurTiafoe
Rei Sakamoto
W
76
64
W
63
76
75
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
W
62
46
64
L
67
64
67
Hubert Hurkacz
W
W
67
76
64
67
64
Arthur Fils
L
36
46
L
36
57
Alexander Zverev
W
26
76
119
L
36
46
Valentin Vacherot
L
46
63
36
W
64
62
64
Martin Damm
W
76
75
W
64
46
36
63
64
Brandon Nakashima
L
67
46
W
75
63
Lorenzo Musetti
L
57
63
57
W
76
75
Felix Auger-Aliassime
W
63
62
W
63
64

Recent Form

Last five matches per player

Minaur
WLWWWWWW
W

Rei Sakamoto

Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round

766
64

Oct 11

L

Novak Djokovic

China Open - Beijing · Final

Oct 6

W

Hubert Hurkacz

China Open - Beijing · Semifinals

Oct 5

W

Andrey Rublev

China Open - Beijing · Quarterfinals

16
62
63

Oct 4

W

Quentin Halys

China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round

36
765
75

Oct 3

W

Mariano Navone

China Open - Beijing · 1st Round

764
62

Oct 1

W

Alexander Zverev

Laver Cup - London · Round Robin

26
765
119

Sep 26

W

Kamil Majchrzak

Davis Cup, Group I, 1R, AUS-POL 3-1 · Rubber 4

63
63

Sep 20

Tiafoe
LWLWLWWW
L

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round

647
64
667

Oct 11

W

Yannick Hanfmann

Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round

64
64

Oct 9

L

Arthur Fils

Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 2nd Round

36
57

Oct 2

W

Kei Nishikori

Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round

64
64

Oct 1

L

Ben Shelton

U.S. Open - New York · Semifinals

64
36
36
57

Sep 11

W

Alex Michelsen

U.S. Open - New York · Quarterfinals

57
36
75
63
766

Sep 8

W

Daniil Medvedev

U.S. Open - New York · 4th Round

761
64
76

Sep 6

W

Valentin Vacherot

U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round

64
62
64

Sep 5

Rivalry momentum

Cumulative head-to-head lead over time

↑ MinaurMinaur ahead↓ Tiafoe

Win rate

Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 63–69 matches

MetricMinaurTiafoe
Matches won67%71%
Sets won63%63%
Games won54%54%

Record by tier

Head-to-head record by tournament tier

StageMinaurTiafoe
Grand Slam20
ATP 25010
ATP Masters 100011
Other10

By surface

Head-to-head record per surface

SurfaceMinaurTiafoe
Hard51

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Alex de Minaur vs Frances Tiafoe FAQ

Alex de Minaur leads the head-to-head 5–1 over 6 meetings.