Alex de Minaur vs Frances TiafoePrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Alex de Minaur and Frances Tiafoe have met 6 times since 2017; Alex de Minaur leads 5–1. Their first meeting came at Brisbane in 2017 on hard. On hard courts Minaur leads 5–1. Minaur has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings Minaur has taken 13 sets to Tiafoe's 6. Their most recent meeting: Alex de Minaur won at Australian Open - Melbourne (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | de Minaur | Tiafoe | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Alex de Minaur | Frances Tiafoe | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 74% | 28/38 | 57% | 17/30 |
| Wins a set when losing | 43% | 10/23 | 38% | 6/16 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 33% | 20/61 | 41% | 19/46 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 47% | 24/51 | 50% | 13/26 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 56% | 5/9 | 65% | 13/20 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 70% | 16/23 | 58% | 11/19 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 89% | 34/38 | 89% | 24/27 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 74% | 28/38 | 63% | 17/27 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (de Minaur 0, Tiafoe 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Minaur
🪃 Counterpuncher
Tiafoe
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
🪃 Counterpuncher vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (49% vs 51%, 2,363 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
6 career meetings, newest first
Jan 23, 2026
Australian Open - Melbourne
H Hard · 3rd Round
Aug 3, 2025
National Bank Open - Toronto
H Hard · 4th Round
Nov 3, 2022
Rolex Paris Masters - Paris
H Hard · 3rd Round
Nov 8, 2019
Next Gen ATP Finals
H Hard · Semifinals
Aug 30, 2018
US Open
H Hard · Round of 64
Jan 1, 2017
Brisbane
H Hard · 2nd Round Qualifying
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Minaur | Tiafoe | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Alex de Minaur | Frances Tiafoe | ||
| 1 or more | 94% | 17/18 | 100% | 20/20 |
| 3 or more | 78% | 14/18 | 95% | 19/20 |
| 5 or more | 50% | 9/18 | 60% | 12/20 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/18 | 10% | 2/20 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/18 | 0% | 0/20 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/18 | 0% | 0/20 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Minaur | Tiafoe |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 13–6 | 15–5 |
| Avg odds | 1.33 | 1.92 |
| ROI % | -16.4% | +31.0% |
| Units P/L | -3.11u | +6.20u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Minaur | Tiafoe |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 3 | 2 |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| Distance | 1,200 mi · 1,932 km | 712 mi · 1,146 km |
| Route | USA → CAN → USA | CAN → USA |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Tiafoe has a higher win rate against shared opponents (70% vs Minaur's 50%).
| Opponent | Minaur | Tiafoe |
|---|---|---|
| Arthur Fils | L 36 46 | L 36 61 06 |
| Brandon Nakashima | L 67 46 | W 75 63 |
| Lorenzo Musetti | L 57 63 57 | W 76 75 |
| Bu Yunchaokete | W 64 60 | W 63 64 |
| Flavio Cobolli | L 57 67 36 | W 62 76 |
| Zachary Svajda | W 62 57 62 64 | W 64 36 75 |
| Alexander Bublik | W 64 61 61 | L 64 67 67 64 36 |
| Taylor Fritz | W 76 63 | W 64 64 |
| Felix Auger-Aliassime | W 63 62 | W 36 63 76 |
| Matteo Arnaldi | L 64 67 46 | L 67 76 63 67 46 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Arthur Fils
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 19
Arthur Fery
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 17
Quentin Halys
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Cameron Norrie
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 6
James Duckworth
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Brandon Nakashima
Citi Open - Washington · Quarterfinals
Jul 31
Cruz Hewitt
Citi Open - Washington · 2nd Round
Jul 30
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Citi Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 29
Arthur Fils
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Final
Aug 23
Brandon Nakashima
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Semifinals
Aug 23
Lorenzo Musetti
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 22
Felix Auger Aliassime
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Learner Tien
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 19
Lorenzo Sonego
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 17
Marin Cilic
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Terence Atmane
Citi Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 28
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 56–74 matches
| Metric | Minaur | Tiafoe |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 64% | 66% |
| Sets won | 62% | 59% |
| Games won | 54% | 53% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Minaur | Tiafoe |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 2 | 0 |
| ATP 250 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP World Tour Masters 1000 | 0 | 1 |
| Other | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Minaur | Tiafoe |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 5 | 1 |
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