Alex de Minaur vs Denis ShapovalovPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Alex de Minaur and Denis Shapovalov have met 6 times since 2017; Alex de Minaur leads 5–1. Their first meeting came at Surbiton in 2017 on grass. On hard courts Minaur leads 3–0. On grass courts they are level 1–1. Minaur has won the last 5 meetings. Across all meetings Minaur has taken 11 sets to Shapovalov's 3. Their most recent meeting: Alex de Minaur won at HSBC Championships - London (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | de Minaur | Shapovalov | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Alex de Minaur | Denis Shapovalov | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 74% | 28/38 | 44% | 8/18 |
| Wins a set when losing | 43% | 10/23 | 28% | 5/18 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 33% | 20/61 | 42% | 15/36 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 47% | 24/51 | 30% | 7/23 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 56% | 5/9 | 62% | 8/13 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 70% | 16/23 | 60% | 6/10 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 89% | 34/38 | 83% | 15/18 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 74% | 28/38 | 44% | 8/18 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 4 of 6 completed meetings ended in straight sets (de Minaur 4, Shapovalov 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Minaur
🪃 Counterpuncher
Shapovalov
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
🪃 Counterpuncher vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (49% vs 51%, 2,363 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
6 career meetings, newest first
Jun 17, 2026
HSBC Championships - London
G Grass · 2nd Round
Apr 29, 2025
Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid
C Clay · 3rd Round
Oct 21, 2022
Stockholm Open - Stockholm
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Aug 9, 2022
National Bank Open - Montreal
H Hard · 1st Round
Jan 5, 2020
ATP Cup - Brisbane, Perth, Sydney
H Hard · Round Robin
Jun 6, 2017
Surbiton
G Grass · 3rd Round Qualifying
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Minaur | Shapovalov | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Alex de Minaur | Denis Shapovalov | ||
| 1 or more | 94% | 17/18 | 100% | 10/10 |
| 3 or more | 78% | 14/18 | 80% | 8/10 |
| 5 or more | 50% | 9/18 | 70% | 7/10 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/18 | 0% | 0/10 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/18 | 0% | 0/10 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/18 | 0% | 0/10 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Minaur | Shapovalov |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 13–6 | 6–5 |
| Avg odds | 1.33 | 2.01 |
| ROI % | -16.4% | -7.8% |
| Units P/L | -3.11u | -0.86u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Minaur | Shapovalov |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 3 | 2 |
| Matches | 6 | 5 |
| Distance | 1,200 mi · 1,932 km | 1,847 mi · 2,972 km |
| Route | USA → CAN → USA | MEX → USA |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Minaur has a higher win rate against shared opponents (60% vs Shapovalov's 50%).
| Opponent | Minaur | Shapovalov |
|---|---|---|
| Rafael Jodar | L 36 16 | L 57 64 57 |
| Adrian Mannarino | W 63 62 62 | W 61 64 |
| Cameron Norrie | L 75 67 16 | W 63 57 64 |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | W 64 36 63 | W 62 36 64 |
| Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | W 62 46 64 | W 57 64 63 |
| Alexander Blockx | W 75 76 | L 46 64 36 |
| Botic van de Zandschulp | W 36 76 75 | L 57 36 |
| Jannik Sinner | L 57 26 | L 36 26 |
| Bu Yunchaokete | W 64 60 | W 63 76 61 |
| Raphael Collignon | L 57 63 36 | L 46 26 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Arthur Fils
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 19
Arthur Fery
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 17
Quentin Halys
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Cameron Norrie
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 6
James Duckworth
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Brandon Nakashima
Citi Open - Washington · Quarterfinals
Jul 31
Cruz Hewitt
Citi Open - Washington · 2nd Round
Jul 30
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Citi Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 29
Rafael Jodar
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Adrian Mannarino
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 13
Arthur Gea
Mifel Tennis Open - Los Cabos · Final
Aug 1
Cameron Norrie
Mifel Tennis Open - Los Cabos · Semifinals
Jul 31
Dalibor Svrcina
Mifel Tennis Open - Los Cabos · Quarterfinals
Jul 31
Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez
Mifel Tennis Open - Los Cabos · 2nd Round
Jul 30
Rinky Hijikata
Mifel Tennis Open - Los Cabos · 1st Round
Jul 29
Pablo Carreno Busta
Wimbledon · Round of 128
Jun 30
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 39–74 matches
| Metric | Minaur | Shapovalov |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 64% | 46% |
| Sets won | 62% | 43% |
| Games won | 54% | 49% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Minaur | Shapovalov |
|---|---|---|
| ATP 500 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP World Tour 250 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP World Tour Masters 1000 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Cup | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Challenger Tour | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Minaur | Shapovalov |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 3 | 0 |
| Clay | 1 | 0 |
| Grass | 1 | 1 |
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