Alex de Minaur vs Denis ShapovalovPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Alex de Minaur and Denis Shapovalov have met 6 times since 2017; Alex de Minaur leads 5–1. Their first meeting came at Surbiton in 2017 on grass. On hard courts Minaur leads 3–0. On grass courts they are level 1–1. Minaur has won the last 5 meetings. Across all meetings Minaur has taken 11 sets to Shapovalov's 3. Their most recent meeting: Alex de Minaur won at HSBC Championships - London (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | de Minaur | Shapovalov | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Alex de Minaur | Denis Shapovalov | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 68% | 25/37 | 45% | 10/22 |
| Wins a set when losing | 42% | 8/19 | 35% | 6/17 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 36% | 20/56 | 46% | 18/39 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 48% | 23/48 | 35% | 9/26 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 50% | 4/8 | 69% | 9/13 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 73% | 19/26 | 62% | 8/13 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 88% | 30/34 | 82% | 18/22 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 74% | 25/34 | 45% | 10/22 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 4 of 6 completed meetings ended in straight sets (de Minaur 4, Shapovalov 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Minaur
🪃 Counterpuncher
Shapovalov
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
🪃 Counterpuncher vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (48% vs 52%, 3,969 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
6 career meetings, newest first
Jun 17, 2026
HSBC Championships - London
G Grass · 2nd Round
Apr 29, 2025
Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid
C Clay · 3rd Round
Oct 21, 2022
Stockholm Open - Stockholm
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Aug 9, 2022
National Bank Open - Montreal
H Hard · 1st Round
Jan 5, 2020
ATP Cup - Brisbane, Perth, Sydney
H Hard · Round Robin
Jun 6, 2017
Surbiton
G Grass · 3rd Round Qualifying
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Minaur | Shapovalov | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Alex de Minaur | Denis Shapovalov | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 17/17 | 100% | 17/17 |
| 3 or more | 82% | 14/17 | 82% | 14/17 |
| 5 or more | 47% | 8/17 | 71% | 12/17 |
| 10 or more | 12% | 2/17 | 41% | 7/17 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/17 | 6% | 1/17 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/17 | 0% | 0/17 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Minaur | Shapovalov |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 14–5 | 12–5 |
| Avg odds | 1.58 | 2.15 |
| ROI % | +8.6% | +12.3% |
| Units P/L | +1.64u | +2.09u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Minaur | Shapovalov |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 3 | 2 |
| Matches | 7 | 7 |
| Distance | 5,722 mi · 9,208 km | 2,080 mi · 3,347 km |
| Route | GBR → CHN | CHN → JPN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Minaur has a higher win rate against shared opponents (60% vs Shapovalov's 40%).
| Opponent | Minaur | Shapovalov |
|---|---|---|
| Hubert Hurkacz | W | L 76 36 36 |
| Carlos Alcaraz | L 57 26 16 | L |
| Mariano Navone | W 76 62 | L 46 26 |
| Adrian Mannarino | W 63 62 62 | W 67 63 62 |
| Botic van de Zandschulp | L 46 57 26 | L 57 36 |
| Rafael Jodar | L 36 16 | L 57 64 57 |
| Cameron Norrie | L 75 67 16 | W 63 57 64 |
| Zachary Svajda | W 62 57 62 64 | L |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | W 64 36 63 | W 62 36 64 |
| Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | W 62 46 64 | W 57 64 63 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Rei Sakamoto
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 11
Novak Djokovic
China Open - Beijing · Final
Oct 6
Hubert Hurkacz
China Open - Beijing · Semifinals
Oct 5
Andrey Rublev
China Open - Beijing · Quarterfinals
Oct 4
Quentin Halys
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Mariano Navone
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 1
Alexander Zverev
Laver Cup - London · Round Robin
Sep 26
Kamil Majchrzak
Davis Cup, Group I, 1R, AUS-POL 3-1 · Rubber 4
Sep 20
Carlos Alcaraz
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · Quarterfinals
Oct 4
Alejandro Tabilo
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Sho Shimabukuro
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Oct 1
Hubert Hurkacz
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · Semifinals
Sep 28
Adrian Mannarino
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · Quarterfinals
Sep 27
Vit Kopriva
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · 2nd Round
Sep 25
Tallon Griekspoor
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · 1st Round
Sep 24
Ben Shelton
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 5
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 45–69 matches
| Metric | Minaur | Shapovalov |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 67% | 56% |
| Sets won | 63% | 52% |
| Games won | 54% | 51% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Minaur | Shapovalov |
|---|---|---|
| ATP 500 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP 250 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 2 | 0 |
| ATP Cup | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Challenger Tour | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Minaur | Shapovalov |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 3 | 0 |
| Clay | 1 | 0 |
| Grass | 1 | 1 |
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