Jessica Pegula vs Karolina MuchovaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇺🇸Jessica Pegula
#3 · 32 yrs · Right-Handed
2 meetings · sets 4–2
🇨🇿Karolina Muchova
#7 · 29 yrs · Right-Handed
7wJessica Pegula and Karolina Muchova have met 2 times since 2024; Jessica Pegula leads 2–0. Their first meeting came at Western & Southern Open - Cincinnati in 2024 on hard. On hard courts Pegula leads 2–0. Pegula has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings Pegula has taken 4 sets to Muchova's 2. Their most recent meeting: Jessica Pegula won at U.S. Open - New York (2024).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Pegula | Muchova | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Jessica Pegula | Karolina Muchova | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 54% | 31/57 | 63% | 25/40 |
| Wins a set when losing | 47% | 9/19 | 38% | 5/13 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 46% | 35/76 | 38% | 20/53 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 50% | 30/60 | 53% | 18/34 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 63% | 10/16 | 69% | 11/16 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 63% | 12/19 | 67% | 6/9 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 88% | 42/48 | 91% | 31/34 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 65% | 31/48 | 74% | 25/34 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 0 of 2 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Pegula 0, Muchova 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Pegula
💥 Big Hitter
Muchova
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
Both Jessica Pegula and Karolina Muchova are 💥 Big Hitter types. Mirror matchups usually come down to execution, fitness, and surface fit, across 5,096 matches in our dataset the historical split is about even.
Previous meetings
2 career meetings, newest first
Sep 5, 2024
U.S. Open - New York
H Hard · Semifinals
Aug 16, 2024
Western & Southern Open - Cincinnati
H Hard · 2nd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Pegula | Muchova | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Jessica Pegula | Karolina Muchova | ||
| 1 or more | 95% | 20/21 | 100% | 12/12 |
| 3 or more | 76% | 16/21 | 75% | 9/12 |
| 5 or more | 33% | 7/21 | 50% | 6/12 |
| 10 or more | 5% | 1/21 | 8% | 1/12 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/21 | 0% | 0/12 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/21 | 0% | 0/12 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Pegula | Muchova |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 17–5 | 8–2 |
| Avg odds | 1.48 | 1.51 |
| ROI % | +10.4% | +16.3% |
| Units P/L | +2.29u | +1.63u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Pegula | Muchova |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 3 | — |
| Events | 3 | — |
| Matches | 12 | — |
| Distance | 761 mi · 1,225 km | — |
| Route | AUT → CAN → POL | — |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Across 10 shared opponents, both Pegula and Muchova posted a 60% win rate.
| Opponent | Pegula | Muchova |
|---|---|---|
| Coco Gauff | L 26 46 | W 62 16 76 |
| Iga Swiatek | W 75 46 64 | L 26 06 |
| Amanda Anisimova | W 64 26 76 | L 61 26 46 |
| Sorana Cirstea | W 62 46 75 | W 62 63 |
| Diana Shnaider | L 36 36 | L 62 16 26 |
| Kamilla Rakhimova | W 64 60 | W 62 62 |
| Alexandra Eala | L 64 46 06 | W 60 62 |
| Anna Kalinskaya | W 63 75 | W 63 64 |
| Linda Noskova | L 46 64 36 | L 26 75 36 |
| Barbora Krejcikova | W 63 63 | W 75 57 63 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Coco Gauff
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Final
Aug 24
Iga Swiatek
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Semifinals
Aug 22
Amanda Anisimova
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 20
Sorana Cirstea
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 19
Emma Navarro
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Simona Waltert
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Diana Shnaider
National Bank Open - Toronto · 4th Round
Aug 8
Kamilla Rakhimova
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 6
Linda Noskova
Wimbledon - London · Final
Jul 11
Coco Gauff
Wimbledon - London · Semifinals
Jul 9
Naomi Osaka
Wimbledon - London · Quarterfinals
Jul 7
Barbora Krejcikova
Wimbledon - London · 4th Round
Jul 5
Mananchaya Sawangkaew
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 3
Shuai Zhang
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 1
Anastasia Zakharova
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 29
Elena Gabriela Ruse
Bad Homburg Open - Bad Homburg · Semifinals
Jun 26
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 53–76 matches
| Metric | Pegula | Muchova |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 75% | 75% |
| Sets won | 66% | 67% |
| Games won | 56% | 55% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Pegula | Muchova |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 1 | 0 |
| WTA 1000 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Pegula | Muchova |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 2 | 0 |
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