Jessica Pegula vs Karolina MuchovaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇺🇸Jessica Pegula
#4 · 32 yrs · Right-Handed
5w2 meetings · sets 4–2
🇨🇿Karolina Muchova
#7 · 29 yrs · Right-Handed
Jessica Pegula and Karolina Muchova have met 2 times since 2024; Jessica Pegula leads 2–0. Their first meeting came at Western & Southern Open - Cincinnati in 2024 on hard. On hard courts Pegula leads 2–0. Pegula has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings Pegula has taken 4 sets to Muchova's 2. Their most recent meeting: Jessica Pegula won at U.S. Open - New York (2024).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Pegula | Muchova | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Jessica Pegula | Karolina Muchova | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 61% | 31/51 | 66% | 27/41 |
| Wins a set when losing | 47% | 7/15 | 31% | 4/13 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 41% | 27/66 | 33% | 18/54 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 55% | 29/53 | 53% | 20/38 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 58% | 7/12 | 69% | 9/13 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 69% | 9/13 | 100% | 8/8 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 89% | 39/44 | 94% | 33/35 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 70% | 31/44 | 77% | 27/35 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 0 of 2 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Pegula 0, Muchova 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Pegula
👑 The Complete Package
Muchova
🤖 Servebot
Matchup analysis
The 👑 The Complete Package archetype wins about 54% vs 🤖 Servebot across 2,084 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Jessica Pegula.
The Complete Package players often use elite serve & return and high bp conversion to pressure the servebot's high ace rate.
Previous meetings
2 career meetings, newest first
Sep 5, 2024
U.S. Open - New York
H Hard · Semifinals
Aug 16, 2024
Western & Southern Open - Cincinnati
H Hard · 2nd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Pegula | Muchova | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Jessica Pegula | Karolina Muchova | ||
| 1 or more | 95% | 18/19 | 100% | 7/7 |
| 3 or more | 90% | 17/19 | 57% | 4/7 |
| 5 or more | 37% | 7/19 | 29% | 2/7 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/19 | 14% | 1/7 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/19 | 0% | 0/7 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/19 | 0% | 0/7 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Pegula | Muchova |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 14–4 | 5–2 |
| Avg odds | 1.48 | 1.27 |
| ROI % | +4.8% | -10.1% |
| Units P/L | +0.86u | -0.71u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Pegula | Muchova |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | — | 1 |
| Events | — | 1 |
| Matches | — | 4 |
| Distance | — | 0 mi · 0 km |
| Route | — | ROU |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Across 10 shared opponents, both Pegula and Muchova posted a 60% win rate.
| Opponent | Pegula | Muchova |
|---|---|---|
| Liudmila Samsonova | W 63 76 | W 46 64 62 |
| Katie Boulter | W 64 64 | W 76 61 |
| Aryna Sabalenka | L 57 26 | L 36 46 |
| Emma Navarro | W 36 64 63 | L 36 57 |
| Elena Gabriela Ruse | W 63 62 | W 64 64 |
| Coco Gauff | L 26 46 | W 62 16 76 |
| Iga Swiatek | W 75 46 64 | L 26 06 |
| Diana Shnaider | L 36 36 | L 62 16 26 |
| Kamilla Rakhimova | W 64 60 | W 62 62 |
| Alexandra Eala | L 64 46 06 | W 60 62 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Aryna Sabalenka
U.S. Open - New York · Semifinals
Sep 10
Emma Navarro
U.S. Open - New York · Quarterfinals
Sep 9
Sorana Cirstea
U.S. Open - New York · 4th Round
Sep 7
Leylah Fernandez
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 4
Sofia Kenin
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 2
Elena Gabriela Ruse
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 30
Coco Gauff
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Final
Aug 24
Iga Swiatek
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Semifinals
Aug 22
Nikola Bartunkova
China Open - Beijing · Quarterfinals
Oct 8
Naomi Osaka
China Open - Beijing · 4th Round
Oct 6
Liudmila Samsonova
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round
Oct 4
Katie Boulter
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 2
Emma Navarro
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 4
Katie Boulter
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 2
Sinja Kraus
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 31
Linda Noskova
Wimbledon - London · Final
Jul 11
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 54–66 matches
| Metric | Pegula | Muchova |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 77% | 76% |
| Sets won | 69% | 68% |
| Games won | 57% | 55% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Pegula | Muchova |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 1 | 0 |
| WTA 1000 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Pegula | Muchova |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 2 | 0 |
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