Jasmine Paolini vs Naomi OsakaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇮🇹Jasmine Paolini
#33 · 30 yrs · Right-Handed
1 meeting · sets 2–1
🇯🇵Naomi Osaka
#18 · 28 yrs · Right-Handed
Jasmine Paolini and Naomi Osaka have met 1 time since 2025; Jasmine Paolini leads 1–0. Across all meetings Paolini has taken 2 sets to Osaka's 1. Their most recent meeting: Jasmine Paolini won at Miami Open - Miami (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Paolini | Osaka | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Jasmine Paolini | Naomi Osaka | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 50% | 10/20 | 67% | 22/33 |
| Wins a set when losing | 26% | 5/19 | 27% | 3/11 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 38% | 15/39 | 32% | 14/44 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 33% | 10/30 | 55% | 18/33 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 33% | 3/9 | 60% | 6/10 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 14% | 1/7 | 71% | 10/14 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 78% | 14/18 | 94% | 32/34 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 56% | 10/18 | 65% | 22/34 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 0 of 1 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Paolini 0, Osaka 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Paolini
🏹 Frontrunner
Osaka
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
🏹 Frontrunner vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (50% vs 50%, 1,247 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
1 career meeting, newest first
Mar 24, 2025
Miami Open - Miami
H Hard · 4th Round
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Paolini | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 2–2 | 9–4 |
| Avg odds | 1.66 | 1.46 |
| ROI % | -36.5% | -14.3% |
| Units P/L | -1.46u | -1.86u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Paolini | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 1 |
| Events | 1 | 1 |
| Matches | 1 | 3 |
| Distance | 0 mi · 0 km | 0 mi · 0 km |
| Route | ROU | ROU |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Osaka has a higher win rate against shared opponents (60% vs Paolini's 40%).
| Opponent | Paolini | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Elena Rybakina | L 36 26 | L 16 46 |
| Elise Mertens | L 64 67 36 | W 63 36 75 |
| Sorana Cirstea | L 36 36 | W 63 46 62 |
| Alexandra Eala | W 64 46 63 | L 46 26 |
| Aryna Sabalenka | L 36 16 | W 62 76 |
| Maria Sakkari | W 61 62 | L 46 26 |
| Magdalena Frech | W 62 63 | W 64 61 |
| Iva Jovic | L 26 67 | W 76 67 64 |
| Laura Siegemund | W 36 62 64 | W 63 76 |
| Talia Gibson | L 57 62 16 | L 57 46 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Daria Snigur
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 2
Sorana Cirstea
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 4
Lucrezia Stefanini
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 2
Veronika Erjavec
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 30
Marta Kostyuk
Wimbledon - London · Quarterfinals
Jul 8
Alexandra Eala
Wimbledon - London · 4th Round
Jul 6
Maria Sakkari
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 4
Viktorija Golubic
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 2
Karolina Muchova
China Open - Beijing · 4th Round
Oct 6
Sara Bejlek
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round
Oct 4
Maria Timofeeva
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 2
Elena Rybakina
U.S. Open - New York · 4th Round
Sep 7
Elise Mertens
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 6
Katerina Siniakova
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Anastasia Zakharova
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 1
Elena Rybakina
National Bank Open - Toronto · Quarterfinals
Aug 12
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 39–44 matches
| Metric | Paolini | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 51% | 75% |
| Sets won | 48% | 68% |
| Games won | 50% | 56% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Paolini | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| WTA 1000 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Paolini | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 0 |
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