Jasmine Paolini vs Naomi OsakaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇮🇹Jasmine Paolini
#20 · 30 yrs · Right-Handed
8w1 meeting · sets 2–1
🇯🇵Naomi Osaka
#13 · 28 yrs · Right-Handed
Jasmine Paolini and Naomi Osaka have met 1 time since 2025; Jasmine Paolini leads 1–0. Across all meetings Paolini has taken 2 sets to Osaka's 1. Their most recent meeting: Jasmine Paolini won at Miami Open - Miami (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Paolini | Osaka | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Jasmine Paolini | Naomi Osaka | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 54% | 14/26 | 71% | 22/31 |
| Wins a set when losing | 26% | 5/19 | 33% | 4/12 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 38% | 17/45 | 30% | 13/43 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 36% | 12/33 | 53% | 17/32 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 50% | 6/12 | 67% | 6/9 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 38% | 3/8 | 64% | 9/14 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 81% | 17/21 | 88% | 29/33 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 67% | 14/21 | 67% | 22/33 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 0 of 1 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Paolini 0, Osaka 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Paolini
🏹 Frontrunner
Osaka
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
🏹 Frontrunner vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (48% vs 52%, 1,181 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
1 career meeting, newest first
Mar 24, 2025
Miami Open - Miami
H Hard · 4th Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Paolini | Osaka | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Jasmine Paolini | Naomi Osaka | ||
| 1 or more | 50% | 3/6 | 100% | 15/15 |
| 3 or more | 17% | 1/6 | 93% | 14/15 |
| 5 or more | 0% | 0/6 | 87% | 13/15 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/6 | 7% | 1/15 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/6 | 0% | 0/15 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/6 | 0% | 0/15 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Paolini | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 4–2 | 12–3 |
| Avg odds | 2.18 | 1.50 |
| ROI % | +35.3% | +15.1% |
| Units P/L | +2.12u | +2.27u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Paolini | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | — | 2 |
| Events | — | 2 |
| Matches | — | 5 |
| Distance | — | 350 mi · 563 km |
| Route | — | AUT → CAN |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Across 10 shared opponents, both Paolini and Osaka posted a 60% win rate.
| Opponent | Paolini | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Elena Rybakina | L 36 26 | L 64 67 46 |
| Elise Mertens | L 64 67 36 | W 61 62 |
| Alexandra Eala | W 64 46 63 | L 46 26 |
| Aryna Sabalenka | L 36 16 | W 62 76 |
| Maria Sakkari | W 61 62 | L 46 26 |
| Xi Yao Wang | W 46 76 64 | W 63 63 |
| Magdalena Frech | W 62 63 | W 64 61 |
| Iva Jovic | L 26 67 | W 76 67 64 |
| Laura Siegemund | W 36 62 64 | W 63 76 |
| Iga Swiatek | W 61 62 | L 26 16 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Marta Kostyuk
Wimbledon - London · Quarterfinals
Jul 8
Alexandra Eala
Wimbledon - London · 4th Round
Jul 6
Maria Sakkari
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 4
Viktorija Golubic
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 2
Robin Montgomery
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 30
Tatjana Maria
Lexus Eastbourne Open - Eastbourne · 1st Round
Jun 23
Solana Sierra
French Open - Paris · 2nd Round
May 27
Dayana Yastremska
French Open - Paris · 1st Round
May 25
Elena Rybakina
National Bank Open - Toronto · Quarterfinals
Aug 12
Leylah Fernandez
National Bank Open - Toronto · 4th Round
Aug 10
Elise Mertens
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 8
Panna Udvardy
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 6
Alexandra Eala
Mubadala DC Open - Washington · Semifinals
Aug 1
Elisabetta Cocciaretto
Mubadala DC Open - Washington · Quarterfinals
Jul 31
Karolina Muchova
Wimbledon - London · Quarterfinals
Jul 7
Aryna Sabalenka
Wimbledon - London · 4th Round
Jul 5
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 43–45 matches
| Metric | Paolini | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 58% | 72% |
| Sets won | 53% | 67% |
| Games won | 52% | 56% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Paolini | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| WTA 1000 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Paolini | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 0 |
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