Jasmine Paolini vs Jessica PegulaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇮🇹Jasmine Paolini
#33 · 30 yrs · Right-Handed
5 meetings · sets 2–8
🇺🇸Jessica Pegula
#4 · 32 yrs · Right-Handed
5wJasmine Paolini and Jessica Pegula have met 5 times since 2021; Jessica Pegula leads 4–1. Their first meeting came at BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells in 2021 on hard. On hard courts Pegula leads 3–1. Across all meetings Paolini has taken 2 sets to Pegula's 8. Their most recent meeting: Jessica Pegula won at WTA Finals - Riyadh (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Paolini | Pegula | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Jasmine Paolini | Jessica Pegula | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 50% | 10/20 | 61% | 31/51 |
| Wins a set when losing | 26% | 5/19 | 47% | 7/15 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 38% | 15/39 | 41% | 27/66 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 33% | 10/30 | 55% | 29/53 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 33% | 3/9 | 58% | 7/12 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 14% | 1/7 | 69% | 9/13 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 78% | 14/18 | 89% | 39/44 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 56% | 10/18 | 70% | 31/44 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 5 of 5 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Paolini 1, Pegula 4).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Paolini
🏹 Frontrunner
Pegula
👑 The Complete Package
Matchup analysis
🏹 Frontrunner vs 👑 The Complete Package is historically tight (51% vs 49%, 978 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
5 career meetings, newest first
Nov 6, 2025
WTA Finals - Riyadh
H Hard · Round Robin
Sep 21, 2025
Billie Jean King Cup, Finals
H Hard · Rubber 2
Aug 10, 2023
Omnium Banque Nationale - Montreal
H Hard · 3rd Round
Apr 6, 2022
Credit One Charleston Open - Charleston
C Clay · 2nd Round
Oct 10, 2021
BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells
H Hard · 3rd Round
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Paolini | Pegula |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 2–2 | 14–4 |
| Avg odds | 1.66 | 1.48 |
| ROI % | -36.5% | +4.8% |
| Units P/L | -1.46u | +0.86u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Paolini | Pegula |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | — |
| Events | 1 | — |
| Matches | 1 | — |
| Distance | 0 mi · 0 km | — |
| Route | ROU | — |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Pegula has a higher win rate against shared opponents (60% vs Paolini's 40%).
| Opponent | Paolini | Pegula |
|---|---|---|
| Aryna Sabalenka | L 36 16 | L 57 26 |
| Sorana Cirstea | L 36 36 | W 63 64 |
| Coco Gauff | L 36 26 | L 26 46 |
| Magdalena Frech | W 62 63 | W 36 63 62 |
| Alexandra Eala | W 64 46 63 | L 64 46 06 |
| Marta Kostyuk | L 36 26 | L 16 46 |
| Iva Jovic | L 26 67 | W 46 63 61 |
| Dayana Yastremska | W 75 63 | W 57 62 63 |
| Anastasia Potapova | W 67 62 63 | W 76 62 |
| Zeynep Sonmez | L 26 26 | W 64 60 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Daria Snigur
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 2
Sorana Cirstea
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 4
Lucrezia Stefanini
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 2
Veronika Erjavec
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 30
Marta Kostyuk
Wimbledon - London · Quarterfinals
Jul 8
Alexandra Eala
Wimbledon - London · 4th Round
Jul 6
Maria Sakkari
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 4
Viktorija Golubic
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 2
Aryna Sabalenka
U.S. Open - New York · Semifinals
Sep 10
Emma Navarro
U.S. Open - New York · Quarterfinals
Sep 9
Sorana Cirstea
U.S. Open - New York · 4th Round
Sep 7
Leylah Fernandez
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 4
Sofia Kenin
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 2
Elena Gabriela Ruse
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 30
Coco Gauff
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Final
Aug 24
Iga Swiatek
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Semifinals
Aug 22
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 39–66 matches
| Metric | Paolini | Pegula |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 51% | 77% |
| Sets won | 48% | 69% |
| Games won | 50% | 57% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Paolini | Pegula |
|---|---|---|
| WTA Finals | 0 | 1 |
| WTA 500 | 0 | 1 |
| Other | 1 | 0 |
| WTA 1000 | 0 | 2 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Paolini | Pegula |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 3 |
| Clay | 0 | 1 |
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