Jasmine Paolini vs Jessica PegulaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇮🇹Jasmine Paolini
#20 · 30 yrs · Right-Handed
8w5 meetings · sets 2–8
🇺🇸Jessica Pegula
#3 · 32 yrs · Right-Handed
Jasmine Paolini and Jessica Pegula have met 5 times since 2021; Jessica Pegula leads 4–1. Their first meeting came at BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells in 2021 on hard. On hard courts Pegula leads 3–1. Across all meetings Paolini has taken 2 sets to Pegula's 8. Their most recent meeting: Jessica Pegula won at WTA Finals - Riyadh (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Paolini | Pegula | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Jasmine Paolini | Jessica Pegula | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 54% | 14/26 | 54% | 31/57 |
| Wins a set when losing | 26% | 5/19 | 47% | 9/19 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 38% | 17/45 | 46% | 35/76 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 36% | 12/33 | 50% | 30/60 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 50% | 6/12 | 63% | 10/16 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 38% | 3/8 | 63% | 12/19 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 81% | 17/21 | 88% | 42/48 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 67% | 14/21 | 65% | 31/48 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 5 of 5 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Paolini 1, Pegula 4).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Paolini
🏹 Frontrunner
Pegula
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
🏹 Frontrunner vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (48% vs 52%, 1,181 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
5 career meetings, newest first
Nov 6, 2025
WTA Finals - Riyadh
H Hard · Round Robin
Sep 21, 2025
Billie Jean King Cup, Finals
H Hard · Rubber 2
Aug 10, 2023
Omnium Banque Nationale - Montreal
H Hard · 3rd Round
Apr 6, 2022
Credit One Charleston Open - Charleston
C Clay · 2nd Round
Oct 10, 2021
BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells
H Hard · 3rd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Paolini | Pegula | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Jasmine Paolini | Jessica Pegula | ||
| 1 or more | 50% | 3/6 | 95% | 20/21 |
| 3 or more | 17% | 1/6 | 76% | 16/21 |
| 5 or more | 0% | 0/6 | 33% | 7/21 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/6 | 5% | 1/21 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/6 | 0% | 0/21 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/6 | 0% | 0/21 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Paolini | Pegula |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 4–2 | 17–5 |
| Avg odds | 2.18 | 1.48 |
| ROI % | +35.3% | +10.4% |
| Units P/L | +2.12u | +2.29u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Paolini | Pegula |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | — | 3 |
| Events | — | 3 |
| Matches | — | 12 |
| Distance | — | 761 mi · 1,225 km |
| Route | — | AUT → CAN → POL |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Pegula has a higher win rate against shared opponents (70% vs Paolini's 50%).
| Opponent | Paolini | Pegula |
|---|---|---|
| Coco Gauff | L 36 26 | L 26 46 |
| Iga Swiatek | W 61 62 | W 75 46 64 |
| Amanda Anisimova | L 76 36 46 | W 64 26 76 |
| Magdalena Frech | W 62 63 | W 36 63 62 |
| Alexandra Eala | W 64 46 63 | L 64 46 06 |
| Marta Kostyuk | L 36 26 | L 16 46 |
| Iva Jovic | L 26 67 | W 46 63 61 |
| Aryna Sabalenka | L 36 16 | W 64 67 60 |
| Dayana Yastremska | W 75 63 | W 57 62 63 |
| Anastasia Potapova | W 67 62 63 | W 76 62 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Marta Kostyuk
Wimbledon - London · Quarterfinals
Jul 8
Alexandra Eala
Wimbledon - London · 4th Round
Jul 6
Maria Sakkari
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 4
Viktorija Golubic
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 2
Robin Montgomery
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 30
Tatjana Maria
Lexus Eastbourne Open - Eastbourne · 1st Round
Jun 23
Solana Sierra
French Open - Paris · 2nd Round
May 27
Dayana Yastremska
French Open - Paris · 1st Round
May 25
Coco Gauff
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Final
Aug 24
Iga Swiatek
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Semifinals
Aug 22
Amanda Anisimova
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 20
Sorana Cirstea
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 19
Emma Navarro
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Simona Waltert
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Diana Shnaider
National Bank Open - Toronto · 4th Round
Aug 8
Kamilla Rakhimova
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 6
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 45–76 matches
| Metric | Paolini | Pegula |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 58% | 75% |
| Sets won | 53% | 66% |
| Games won | 52% | 56% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Paolini | Pegula |
|---|---|---|
| WTA Finals | 0 | 1 |
| WTA 500 | 0 | 1 |
| Other | 1 | 0 |
| WTA 1000 | 0 | 2 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Paolini | Pegula |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 3 |
| Clay | 0 | 1 |
Share this matchup
Copy the link to paste in Discord or group chats.