Jannik Sinner vs Sebastian BaezPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Jannik Sinner and Sebastian Baez have met 3 times since 2023; Jannik Sinner leads 3–0. Their first meeting came at Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai in 2023 on hard. On hard courts Sinner leads 3–0. Sinner has won the last 3 meetings. Across all meetings Sinner has taken 7 sets to Baez's 1. Their most recent meeting: Jannik Sinner won at Davis Cup, World Group, QF, ITA-ARG 2-1 (2024).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Sinner | Baez | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Jannik Sinner | Sebastian Baez | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 88% | 46/52 | 76% | 26/34 |
| Wins a set when losing | 100% | 1/1 | 19% | 5/26 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 13% | 7/53 | 22% | 13/60 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 87% | 46/53 | 63% | 17/27 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | — | 52% | 15/29 | |
| Tiebreak sets won | 80% | 12/15 | 64% | 7/11 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 100% | 50/50 | 85% | 29/34 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 92% | 46/50 | 76% | 26/34 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 2 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Sinner 1, Baez 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Sinner
👑 The Complete Package
Baez
🎾 All-Court
Matchup analysis
The 🎾 All-Court archetype wins about 56% vs 👑 The Complete Package across 124 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Sebastian Baez.
All-Court players often use tactical versatility and net approach ability to pressure the the complete package's elite serve & return.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Nov 21, 2024
Davis Cup, World Group, QF, ITA-ARG 2-1
H Hard · Rubber 2
Jan 19, 2024
Australian Open - Melbourne
H Hard · 3rd Round
Oct 8, 2023
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai
H Hard · 3rd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Sinner | Baez | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Jannik Sinner | Sebastian Baez | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 7/7 | 76% | 16/21 |
| 3 or more | 100% | 7/7 | 29% | 6/21 |
| 5 or more | 100% | 7/7 | 10% | 2/21 |
| 10 or more | 100% | 7/7 | 0% | 0/21 |
| 15 or more | 86% | 6/7 | 0% | 0/21 |
| 20 or more | 29% | 2/7 | 0% | 0/21 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Sinner | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 7–0 | 14–6 |
| Avg odds | 1.08 | 1.90 |
| ROI % | +7.9% | +8.8% |
| Units P/L | +0.55u | +1.76u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Sinner | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | — | 3 |
| Events | — | 4 |
| Matches | — | 9 |
| Distance | — | 3,066 mi · 4,934 km |
| Route | — | CAN → USA → MEX → USA |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Sinner has a higher win rate against shared opponents (100% vs Baez's 20%).
| Opponent | Sinner | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Learner Tien | W 61 62 | L 36 67 |
| Zizou Bergs | W 64 62 | L 63 36 26 |
| Miomir Kecmanovic | W 46 63 67 62 63 | W 63 36 64 |
| Andrey Rublev | W 62 64 | L 16 26 |
| Jan-Lennard Struff | W 75 76 63 | L 16 67 64 62 57 |
| Jenson Brooksby | W 64 63 64 | W 63 76 |
| Alex Michelsen | W 75 76 | L 57 36 |
| Daniil Medvedev | W 62 57 64 | L 46 06 |
| Alexander Bublik | W 64 64 | L 16 26 |
| Cameron Norrie | W 62 75 | L 36 46 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Alexander Zverev
Wimbledon - London · Final
Jul 12
Novak Djokovic
Wimbledon - London · Semifinals
Jul 10
Jan-Lennard Struff
Wimbledon - London · Quarterfinals
Jul 7
Shintaro Mochizuki
Wimbledon - London · 4th Round
Jul 5
Jenson Brooksby
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 3
Nuno Borges
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 1
Miomir Kecmanovic
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 29
Juan Manuel Cerundolo
French Open - Paris · 2nd Round
May 28
Hugo Grenier
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 2nd Round
Aug 26
Hubert Hurkacz
Cancun Challenger · Final
Aug 24
Lloyd Harris
Cancun Challenger · Semifinals
Aug 23
Chak Pong Marco Lam
Cancun Challenger · Quarterfinals
Aug 22
Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez
Cancun Challenger · 2nd Round
Aug 21
Learner Tien
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Grigor Dimitrov
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 14
Zizou Bergs
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 64–72 matches
| Metric | Sinner | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 94% | 55% |
| Sets won | 87% | 53% |
| Games won | 62% | 50% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Sinner | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 1 | 0 |
| Other | 1 | 0 |
| ATP World Tour Masters 1000 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Sinner | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 3 | 0 |
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