Holger Rune vs Tommy PaulPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Upcoming match
- Tournament
- Rolex Paris Masters - Paris
- Level
- ATP Masters 1000
- Round
- 1st Round
- Surface
- Hard
- Date & time
- November 2 · 4:00 AM ET
Book odds
Set spread
Game spread
Record at prices like this
At 1.38 or shorter, Tommy Paul has won 120 of 143 (84%). The price implied 74%, so Tommy Paul has beaten it by 10 points.
At 2.84 or longer, Holger Rune has won 8 of 28 (29%). The price implied 26%, so Holger Rune has beaten it by 3 points.
Book prices with the bookmaker margin removed, across every priced match we hold for each player. Green beats the price by 3 points or more, red falls that far short, grey is within 3 points. Samples under ten are not shown.
Tommy Paul faces Holger Rune in the first round of the Rolex Paris Masters on November 2. The American sits at number 14 in the rankings while Rune, currently ranked 1202, returns to tour after time away. Hard court will host the matchup in Paris.
This will be their first meeting. Paul has gone 7-3 over his last 10 matches and won 6 of his last 14 days of competition, though he dropped his most recent outing. Rune has won 6 of his last 10 but taken only 2 of his last 5, arriving in Paris having played just three matches in the past fortnight.
Both men shape points through aggressive ball striking from the baseline. Paul holds a 65% record on hard courts from recent play; Rune sits at 60% on the surface. Their head-to-head results against top players tell different stories: Paul fell to Carlos Alcaraz, Casper Ruud, and Daniil Medvedev, while Rune defeated those same three. The depth of Paul's current momentum against Rune's tentative recent run will test whether consistency or timing decides the opening round.
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Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Rune | Paul | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Holger Rune | Tommy Paul | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 25% | 1/4 | 58% | 21/36 |
| Wins a set when losing | 67% | 2/3 | 53% | 9/17 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 71% | 5/7 | 45% | 24/53 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 20% | 1/5 | 42% | 19/45 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 100% | 2/2 | 71% | 5/7 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 60% | 3/5 | 58% | 14/24 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 67% | 2/3 | 82% | 28/34 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 33% | 1/3 | 62% | 21/34 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Small sample — read with care.
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Rune
💥 Big Hitter
Paul
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
Both Holger Rune and Tommy Paul are 💥 Big Hitter types. Mirror matchups usually come down to execution, fitness, and surface fit, across 3,766 matches in our dataset the historical split is about even.
Previous meetings
First career meeting
Rune and Paul have never faced each other on tour.
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Rune | Paul | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Holger Rune | Tommy Paul | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 4/4 | 100% | 18/18 |
| 3 or more | 100% | 4/4 | 89% | 16/18 |
| 5 or more | 75% | 3/4 | 56% | 10/18 |
| 10 or more | 25% | 1/4 | 11% | 2/18 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/4 | 6% | 1/18 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/4 | 0% | 0/18 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Rune | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 4–3 | 14–7 |
| Avg odds | 1.76 | 1.91 |
| ROI % | +9.4% | +4.0% |
| Units P/L | +0.66u | +0.85u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Rune | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 4 | 3 |
| Events | 4 | 4 |
| Matches | 5 | 10 |
| Distance | 6,976 mi · 11,227 km | 7,017 mi · 11,292 km |
| Route | JPN → CHN → SUI → FRA | CHN → FRA → AUT → FRA |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Paul has a higher win rate against shared opponents (100% vs Rune's 33%).
| Opponent | Rune | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Valentin Vacherot | L 36 63 36 | W 64 62 |
| Hubert Hurkacz | W 36 63 76 | W 64 67 63 |
| Daniel Altmaier | L 61 67 46 | W 62 75 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Valentin Vacherot
Swiss Indoors Basel - Basel · Quarterfinals
Oct 30
Hubert Hurkacz
Swiss Indoors Basel - Basel · 2nd Round
Oct 28
Quentin Halys
Swiss Indoors Basel - Basel · 1st Round
Oct 26
Daniel Altmaier
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 7
Kyrian Jacquet
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Oct 1
Grigor Dimitrov
Davis Cup, Group I, 1R, DEN-BUL 3-2 · Rubber 4
Sep 19
Iliyan Radulov
Davis Cup, Group I, 1R, DEN-BUL 3-2 · Rubber 2
Sep 18
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
BNP Paribas Nordic Open - Stockholm · Quarterfinals
Oct 17
Carlos Alcaraz
Erste Bank Open - Vienna · Quarterfinals
Oct 30
Luciano Darderi
Erste Bank Open - Vienna · 2nd Round
Oct 29
Andrey Rublev
Erste Bank Open - Vienna · 1st Round
Oct 27
Taylor Fritz
Grand Prix Auvergne-Rhone-Alpes - Lyon · Semifinals
Oct 24
Corentin Moutet
Grand Prix Auvergne-Rhone-Alpes - Lyon · Quarterfinals
Oct 23
Benjamin Bonzi
Grand Prix Auvergne-Rhone-Alpes - Lyon · 2nd Round
Oct 21
Daniil Medvedev
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · Quarterfinals
Oct 16
Zizou Bergs
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 4th Round
Oct 14
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 7–67 matches
| Metric | Rune | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 57% | 69% |
| Sets won | 53% | 63% |
| Games won | 50% | 55% |