Elise Mertens vs Karolina MuchovaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇧🇪Elise Mertens
#14 · 30 yrs · Right-Handed
3 meetings · sets 3–4
🇨🇿Karolina Muchova
#7 · 29 yrs · Right-Handed
Elise Mertens and Karolina Muchova have met 3 times since 2020; Karolina Muchova leads 2–1. Their first meeting came at J&T Banka Ostrava Open - Ostrava in 2020 on hard. On hard courts they are level 1–1. Muchova has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings Mertens has taken 3 sets to Muchova's 4. Their most recent meeting: Karolina Muchova won at Porsche Tennis Grand Prix - Stuttgart (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Mertens | Muchova | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Elise Mertens | Karolina Muchova | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 71% | 24/34 | 66% | 27/41 |
| Wins a set when losing | 33% | 7/21 | 31% | 4/13 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 31% | 17/55 | 33% | 18/54 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 55% | 21/38 | 53% | 20/38 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 50% | 8/16 | 69% | 9/13 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 63% | 5/8 | 100% | 8/8 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 90% | 28/31 | 94% | 33/35 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 77% | 24/31 | 77% | 27/35 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Mertens 1, Muchova 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Mertens
💥 Big Hitter
Muchova
🤖 Servebot
Matchup analysis
💥 Big Hitter vs 🤖 Servebot is historically tight (49% vs 51%, 3,072 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Apr 16, 2026
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix - Stuttgart
C Clay · 2nd Round
Feb 15, 2021
Australian Open - Melbourne
H Hard · 4th Round
Oct 22, 2020
J&T Banka Ostrava Open - Ostrava
H Hard · 2nd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Mertens | Muchova | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Elise Mertens | Karolina Muchova | ||
| 1 or more | 88% | 14/16 | 100% | 7/7 |
| 3 or more | 75% | 12/16 | 57% | 4/7 |
| 5 or more | 56% | 9/16 | 29% | 2/7 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/16 | 14% | 1/7 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/16 | 0% | 0/7 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/16 | 0% | 0/7 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Mertens | Muchova |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 10–6 | 5–2 |
| Avg odds | 2.05 | 1.27 |
| ROI % | +23.4% | -10.1% |
| Units P/L | +3.74u | -0.71u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Mertens | Muchova |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 1 |
| Events | 2 | 1 |
| Matches | 6 | 4 |
| Distance | 2,779 mi · 4,472 km | 0 mi · 0 km |
| Route | SGP → ROU | ROU |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Mertens has a higher win rate against shared opponents (80% vs Muchova's 50%).
| Opponent | Mertens | Muchova |
|---|---|---|
| Iga Swiatek | W 76 63 | L 26 06 |
| Nikola Bartunkova | W 16 64 62 | L 36 06 |
| Coco Gauff | W 63 63 | W 62 16 76 |
| Naomi Osaka | L 36 63 57 | W 75 16 76 |
| Liudmila Samsonova | W 16 63 60 | W 46 64 62 |
| Emma Navarro | W 62 62 | L 36 57 |
| Anna Bondar | W 36 64 64 | W 75 62 |
| Linda Noskova | L 36 57 | L 26 75 36 |
| Barbora Krejcikova | W 57 61 75 | W 75 57 63 |
| Elena Rybakina | W 76 61 | L 57 16 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Qinwen Zheng
China Open - Beijing · Semifinals
Oct 10
Iga Swiatek
China Open - Beijing · Quarterfinals
Oct 9
Coco Gauff
China Open - Beijing · 4th Round
Oct 7
Jelena Ostapenko
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round
Oct 5
Katie Volynets
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Maja Chwalinska
Singapore Tennis Open - Singapore · Quarterfinals
Sep 25
Naomi Osaka
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 6
Maria Timofeeva
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Nikola Bartunkova
China Open - Beijing · Quarterfinals
Oct 8
Naomi Osaka
China Open - Beijing · 4th Round
Oct 6
Liudmila Samsonova
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round
Oct 4
Katie Boulter
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 2
Emma Navarro
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 4
Katie Boulter
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 2
Sinja Kraus
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 31
Linda Noskova
Wimbledon - London · Final
Jul 11
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 54–55 matches
| Metric | Mertens | Muchova |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 62% | 76% |
| Sets won | 59% | 68% |
| Games won | 54% | 55% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Mertens | Muchova |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 0 | 1 |
| WTA 500 | 0 | 1 |
| Other | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Mertens | Muchova |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 1 |
| Clay | 0 | 1 |
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