Elise Mertens vs Jasmine PaoliniPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇧🇪Elise Mertens
#14 · 30 yrs · Right-Handed
6 meetings · sets 11–5
🇮🇹Jasmine Paolini
#33 · 30 yrs · Right-Handed
Elise Mertens and Jasmine Paolini have met 6 times since 2018; Elise Mertens leads 5–1. Their first meeting came at Fed Cup WG R1: BEL vs ITA in 2018 on clay. On clay courts Mertens leads 3–0. On hard courts Mertens leads 2–1. Mertens has won the last 3 meetings. 1 of their meetings has been a final, with Mertens leading those 1–0. Across all meetings Mertens has taken 11 sets to Paolini's 5. Their most recent meeting: Elise Mertens won at Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Mertens | Paolini | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Elise Mertens | Jasmine Paolini | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 71% | 24/34 | 50% | 10/20 |
| Wins a set when losing | 33% | 7/21 | 26% | 5/19 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 31% | 17/55 | 38% | 15/39 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 55% | 21/38 | 33% | 10/30 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 50% | 8/16 | 33% | 3/9 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 63% | 5/8 | 14% | 1/7 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 90% | 28/31 | 78% | 14/18 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 77% | 24/31 | 56% | 10/18 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 6 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Mertens 2, Paolini 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Mertens
💥 Big Hitter
Paolini
🏹 Frontrunner
Matchup analysis
💥 Big Hitter vs 🏹 Frontrunner is historically tight (50% vs 50%, 1,247 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
6 career meetings, newest first
May 9, 2026
Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome
C Clay · 3rd Round
Oct 22, 2023
Jasmin Open Tunisia - Monastir
H Hard · Final
Feb 21, 2022
Qatar TotalEnergies Open - Doha
H Hard · 1st Round
Oct 8, 2021
BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells
H Hard · 2nd Round
Aug 11, 2020
Prague Open - Prague
C Clay · 1st Round
Apr 21, 2018
Fed Cup WG R1: BEL vs ITA
C Clay · Round Robin
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Mertens | Paolini |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 10–6 | 2–2 |
| Avg odds | 2.05 | 1.66 |
| ROI % | +23.4% | -36.5% |
| Units P/L | +3.74u | -1.46u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Mertens | Paolini |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 1 |
| Events | 2 | 1 |
| Matches | 6 | 1 |
| Distance | 2,779 mi · 4,472 km | 0 mi · 0 km |
| Route | SGP → ROU | ROU |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Mertens has a higher win rate against shared opponents (78% vs Paolini's 22%).
| Opponent | Mertens | Paolini |
|---|---|---|
| Coco Gauff | W 63 63 | L 36 26 |
| Jelena Ostapenko | W 62 36 63 | L 75 26 57 |
| Sorana Cirstea | L 36 26 | L 36 36 |
| Alexandra Eala | W 63 63 | W 64 46 63 |
| Elena Rybakina | W 76 61 | L 36 26 |
| Laura Siegemund | W 62 64 | W 36 62 64 |
| Tatjana Maria | W 75 60 | L 46 36 |
| Belinda Bencic | L 26 36 | L 46 36 |
| Cristina Bucsa | W 62 61 | L 57 46 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Qinwen Zheng
China Open - Beijing · Semifinals
Oct 10
Iga Swiatek
China Open - Beijing · Quarterfinals
Oct 9
Coco Gauff
China Open - Beijing · 4th Round
Oct 7
Jelena Ostapenko
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round
Oct 5
Katie Volynets
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Maja Chwalinska
Singapore Tennis Open - Singapore · Quarterfinals
Sep 25
Naomi Osaka
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 6
Maria Timofeeva
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Daria Snigur
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 2
Sorana Cirstea
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 4
Lucrezia Stefanini
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 2
Veronika Erjavec
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 30
Marta Kostyuk
Wimbledon - London · Quarterfinals
Jul 8
Alexandra Eala
Wimbledon - London · 4th Round
Jul 6
Maria Sakkari
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 4
Viktorija Golubic
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 2
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 39–55 matches
| Metric | Mertens | Paolini |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 62% | 51% |
| Sets won | 59% | 48% |
| Games won | 54% | 50% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Mertens | Paolini |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 1 | 0 |
| WTA 250 | 1 | 0 |
| WTA 1000 | 2 | 1 |
| Other | 1 | 0 |
| BJK Cup | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Mertens | Paolini |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 2 | 1 |
| Clay | 3 | 0 |
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