Elise Mertens vs Jasmine PaoliniPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇧🇪Elise Mertens
#24 · 30 yrs · Right-Handed
6 meetings · sets 11–5
🇮🇹Jasmine Paolini
#20 · 30 yrs · Right-Handed
8wElise Mertens and Jasmine Paolini have met 6 times since 2018; Elise Mertens leads 5–1. Their first meeting came at Fed Cup WG R1: BEL vs ITA in 2018 on clay. On clay courts Mertens leads 3–0. On hard courts Mertens leads 2–1. Mertens has won the last 3 meetings. 1 of their meetings has been a final, with Mertens leading those 1–0. Across all meetings Mertens has taken 11 sets to Paolini's 5. Their most recent meeting: Elise Mertens won at Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Mertens | Paolini | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Elise Mertens | Jasmine Paolini | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 72% | 21/29 | 54% | 14/26 |
| Wins a set when losing | 35% | 7/20 | 26% | 5/19 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 31% | 15/49 | 38% | 17/45 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 58% | 19/33 | 36% | 12/33 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 42% | 5/12 | 50% | 6/12 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 57% | 4/7 | 38% | 3/8 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 85% | 23/27 | 81% | 17/21 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 78% | 21/27 | 67% | 14/21 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 6 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Mertens 2, Paolini 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Mertens
💥 Big Hitter
Paolini
🏹 Frontrunner
Matchup analysis
💥 Big Hitter vs 🏹 Frontrunner is historically tight (52% vs 48%, 1,181 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
6 career meetings, newest first
May 9, 2026
Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome
C Clay · 3rd Round
Oct 22, 2023
Jasmin Open Tunisia - Monastir
H Hard · Final
Feb 21, 2022
Qatar TotalEnergies Open - Doha
H Hard · 1st Round
Oct 8, 2021
BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells
H Hard · 2nd Round
Aug 11, 2020
Prague Open - Prague
C Clay · 1st Round
Apr 21, 2018
Fed Cup WG R1: BEL vs ITA
C Clay · Round Robin
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Mertens | Paolini | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Elise Mertens | Jasmine Paolini | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 14/14 | 50% | 3/6 |
| 3 or more | 64% | 9/14 | 17% | 1/6 |
| 5 or more | 43% | 6/14 | 0% | 0/6 |
| 10 or more | 7% | 1/14 | 0% | 0/6 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/14 | 0% | 0/6 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/14 | 0% | 0/6 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Mertens | Paolini |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 9–5 | 4–2 |
| Avg odds | 1.84 | 2.18 |
| ROI % | +12.4% | +35.3% |
| Units P/L | +1.73u | +2.12u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Mertens | Paolini |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 3 | — |
| Events | 3 | — |
| Matches | 7 | — |
| Distance | 1,715 mi · 2,760 km | — |
| Route | CAN → POL → AUT | — |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Mertens has a higher win rate against shared opponents (75% vs Paolini's 38%).
| Opponent | Mertens | Paolini |
|---|---|---|
| Marie Bouzkova | W 64 64 | W 62 75 |
| Alexandra Eala | W 63 63 | W 64 46 63 |
| Elena Rybakina | W 76 61 | L 36 26 |
| Laura Siegemund | W 62 64 | W 36 62 64 |
| Tatjana Maria | W 75 60 | L 46 36 |
| Belinda Bencic | L 26 36 | L 46 36 |
| Cristina Bucsa | W 62 61 | L 57 46 |
| Coco Gauff | L 62 67 36 | L 36 26 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Diane Parry
Abierto GNP Seguros - Monterrey · Final
Aug 30
Nikola Bartunkova
Abierto GNP Seguros - Monterrey · Semifinals
Aug 29
Yuliia Starodubtseva
Abierto GNP Seguros - Monterrey · Quarterfinals
Aug 28
Panna Udvardy
Abierto GNP Seguros - Monterrey · 2nd Round
Aug 27
Diane Parry
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Naomi Osaka
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 8
Anna Bondar
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Linda Noskova
Wimbledon - London · Quarterfinals
Jul 8
Marta Kostyuk
Wimbledon - London · Quarterfinals
Jul 8
Alexandra Eala
Wimbledon - London · 4th Round
Jul 6
Maria Sakkari
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 4
Viktorija Golubic
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 2
Robin Montgomery
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 30
Tatjana Maria
Lexus Eastbourne Open - Eastbourne · 1st Round
Jun 23
Solana Sierra
French Open - Paris · 2nd Round
May 27
Dayana Yastremska
French Open - Paris · 1st Round
May 25
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 45–49 matches
| Metric | Mertens | Paolini |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 59% | 58% |
| Sets won | 58% | 53% |
| Games won | 54% | 52% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Mertens | Paolini |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 1 | 0 |
| WTA 250 | 1 | 0 |
| WTA 1000 | 2 | 1 |
| Other | 1 | 0 |
| BJK Cup | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Mertens | Paolini |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 2 | 1 |
| Clay | 3 | 0 |
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