Elena Rybakina vs Naomi OsakaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇰🇿Elena Rybakina
#2 · 26 yrs · Right-Handed
81 meeting · sets 2–1
🇯🇵Naomi Osaka
#13 · 28 yrs · Right-Handed
Elena Rybakina and Naomi Osaka have met 1 time since 2026; Elena Rybakina leads 1–0. Across all meetings Rybakina has taken 2 sets to Osaka's 1. Their most recent meeting: Elena Rybakina won at National Bank Open - Toronto (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Rybakina | Osaka | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Elena Rybakina | Naomi Osaka | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 68% | 39/57 | 71% | 22/31 |
| Wins a set when losing | 62% | 8/13 | 33% | 4/12 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 37% | 26/70 | 30% | 13/43 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 60% | 37/62 | 53% | 17/32 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 71% | 5/7 | 67% | 6/9 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 53% | 8/15 | 64% | 9/14 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 94% | 46/49 | 88% | 29/33 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 80% | 39/49 | 67% | 22/33 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 0 of 1 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Rybakina 0, Osaka 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Rybakina
🤖 Servebot
Osaka
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
🤖 Servebot vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (52% vs 48%, 3,090 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
1 career meeting, newest first
Aug 12, 2026
National Bank Open - Toronto
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Rybakina | Osaka | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Elena Rybakina | Naomi Osaka | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 15/15 | 100% | 15/15 |
| 3 or more | 73% | 11/15 | 93% | 14/15 |
| 5 or more | 73% | 11/15 | 87% | 13/15 |
| 10 or more | 27% | 4/15 | 7% | 1/15 |
| 15 or more | 13% | 2/15 | 0% | 0/15 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/15 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Rybakina | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 11–3 | 12–3 |
| Avg odds | 1.32 | 1.50 |
| ROI % | +6.4% | +15.1% |
| Units P/L | +0.90u | +2.27u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Rybakina | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 2 | 2 |
| Matches | 8 | 5 |
| Distance | 411 mi · 662 km | 350 mi · 563 km |
| Route | CAN → POL | AUT → CAN |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Osaka has a higher win rate against shared opponents (80% vs Rybakina's 70%).
| Opponent | Rybakina | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Diana Shnaider | W 64 64 | W 61 62 |
| Magdalena Frech | W 64 76 | W 64 61 |
| Coco Gauff | W 57 62 62 | W 63 62 |
| Leylah Fernandez | W 67 64 76 | W 64 64 |
| Elise Mertens | L 67 16 | W 61 62 |
| Daria Kasatkina | W 63 57 64 | W 61 63 |
| Alexandra Eala | L 57 46 | L 46 26 |
| Karolina Muchova | W 75 61 | L 67 46 |
| Aryna Sabalenka | L 46 36 | W 62 76 |
| Xi Yao Wang | W 62 64 | W 63 63 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Diana Shnaider
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Magdalena Frech
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 17
Taylor Townsend
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Coco Gauff
National Bank Open - Toronto · Semifinals
Aug 13
Naomi Osaka
National Bank Open - Toronto · Quarterfinals
Aug 12
Liudmila Samsonova
National Bank Open - Toronto · 4th Round
Aug 9
Ann Li
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Daria Kasatkina
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Elena Rybakina
National Bank Open - Toronto · Quarterfinals
Aug 12
Leylah Fernandez
National Bank Open - Toronto · 4th Round
Aug 10
Elise Mertens
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 8
Panna Udvardy
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 6
Alexandra Eala
Mubadala DC Open - Washington · Semifinals
Aug 1
Elisabetta Cocciaretto
Mubadala DC Open - Washington · Quarterfinals
Jul 31
Karolina Muchova
Wimbledon - London · Quarterfinals
Jul 7
Aryna Sabalenka
Wimbledon - London · 4th Round
Jul 5
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 43–70 matches
| Metric | Rybakina | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 81% | 72% |
| Sets won | 73% | 67% |
| Games won | 58% | 56% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Rybakina | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| WTA 1000 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Rybakina | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 0 |
Share this matchup
Copy the link to paste in Discord or group chats.