Elena Rybakina vs Naomi OsakaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇰🇿Elena Rybakina
#1 · 26 yrs · Right-Handed
2 meetings · sets 4–1
🇯🇵Naomi Osaka
#18 · 28 yrs · Right-Handed
Elena Rybakina and Naomi Osaka have met 2 times since 2026; Elena Rybakina leads 2–0. Their first meeting came at National Bank Open - Toronto in 2026 on hard. On hard courts Rybakina leads 2–0. Rybakina has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings Rybakina has taken 4 sets to Osaka's 1. Their most recent meeting: Elena Rybakina won at U.S. Open - New York (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Rybakina | Osaka | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Elena Rybakina | Naomi Osaka | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 67% | 40/60 | 67% | 22/33 |
| Wins a set when losing | 58% | 7/12 | 27% | 3/11 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 38% | 27/72 | 32% | 14/44 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 61% | 39/64 | 55% | 18/33 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 75% | 6/8 | 60% | 6/10 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 56% | 9/16 | 71% | 10/14 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 92% | 47/51 | 94% | 32/34 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 78% | 40/51 | 65% | 22/34 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 2 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Rybakina 1, Osaka 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Rybakina
🤖 Servebot
Osaka
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
🤖 Servebot vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (51% vs 49%, 3,072 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
2 career meetings, newest first
Sep 7, 2026
U.S. Open - New York
H Hard · 4th Round
Aug 12, 2026
National Bank Open - Toronto
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Rybakina | Osaka | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Elena Rybakina | Naomi Osaka | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 16/16 | 92% | 12/13 |
| 3 or more | 94% | 15/16 | 77% | 10/13 |
| 5 or more | 88% | 14/16 | 69% | 9/13 |
| 10 or more | 31% | 5/16 | 31% | 4/13 |
| 15 or more | 13% | 2/16 | 0% | 0/13 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/16 | 0% | 0/13 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Rybakina | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 15–2 | 9–4 |
| Avg odds | 1.47 | 1.46 |
| ROI % | +28.5% | -14.3% |
| Units P/L | +4.85u | -1.86u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Rybakina | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 1 |
| Events | 1 | 1 |
| Matches | 1 | 3 |
| Distance | 0 mi · 0 km | 0 mi · 0 km |
| Route | ROU | ROU |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Across 10 shared opponents, both Rybakina and Osaka posted a 70% win rate.
| Opponent | Rybakina | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Karolina Muchova | W 75 61 | L 57 61 67 |
| Aryna Sabalenka | W 64 57 62 | W 62 76 |
| Elise Mertens | L 67 16 | W 63 36 75 |
| Diana Shnaider | W 64 64 | W 61 62 |
| Iga Swiatek | L | L 26 16 |
| Magdalena Frech | W 64 76 | W 64 61 |
| Leylah Fernandez | W 67 64 76 | W 64 64 |
| Daria Kasatkina | W 63 57 64 | W 61 63 |
| Alexandra Eala | L 57 46 | L 46 26 |
| Xi Yao Wang | W 62 64 | W 63 63 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Alina Charaeva
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Aryna Sabalenka
U.S. Open - New York · Final
Sep 12
Coco Gauff
U.S. Open - New York · Semifinals
Sep 11
Qinwen Zheng
U.S. Open - New York · Quarterfinals
Sep 9
Naomi Osaka
U.S. Open - New York · 4th Round
Sep 7
Yuliia Starodubtseva
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 6
Jessica Bouzas Maneiro
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 4
Thea Frodin
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 1
Karolina Muchova
China Open - Beijing · 4th Round
Oct 6
Sara Bejlek
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round
Oct 4
Maria Timofeeva
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 2
Elena Rybakina
U.S. Open - New York · 4th Round
Sep 7
Elise Mertens
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 6
Katerina Siniakova
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Anastasia Zakharova
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 1
Elena Rybakina
National Bank Open - Toronto · Quarterfinals
Aug 12
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 44–72 matches
| Metric | Rybakina | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 83% | 75% |
| Sets won | 74% | 68% |
| Games won | 58% | 56% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Rybakina | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 1 | 0 |
| WTA 1000 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Rybakina | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 2 | 0 |
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