Denis Shapovalov vs Lorenzo MusettiPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Denis Shapovalov and Lorenzo Musetti have met 2 times since 2024; Lorenzo Musetti leads 2–0. Their first meeting came at BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells in 2024 on hard. On hard courts Musetti leads 2–0. Musetti has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings Shapovalov has taken 1 sets to Musetti's 5. Their most recent meeting: Lorenzo Musetti won at Australian Open - Melbourne (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Shapovalov | Musetti | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Denis Shapovalov | Lorenzo Musetti | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 45% | 10/22 | 73% | 16/22 |
| Wins a set when losing | 35% | 6/17 | 25% | 4/16 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 46% | 18/39 | 26% | 10/38 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 35% | 9/26 | 56% | 15/27 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 69% | 9/13 | 33% | 3/9 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 62% | 8/13 | 38% | 5/13 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 82% | 18/22 | 86% | 19/22 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 45% | 10/22 | 73% | 16/22 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 0 of 1 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Shapovalov 0, Musetti 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Shapovalov
💥 Big Hitter
Musetti
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
Both Denis Shapovalov and Lorenzo Musetti are 💥 Big Hitter types. Mirror matchups usually come down to execution, fitness, and surface fit, across 4,120 matches in our dataset the historical split is about even.
Previous meetings
2 career meetings, newest first
Jan 16, 2025
Australian Open - Melbourne
H Hard · 2nd Round
Mar 9, 2024
BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells
H Hard · 2nd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Shapovalov | Musetti | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Denis Shapovalov | Lorenzo Musetti | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 17/17 | 91% | 10/11 |
| 3 or more | 82% | 14/17 | 73% | 8/11 |
| 5 or more | 71% | 12/17 | 46% | 5/11 |
| 10 or more | 41% | 7/17 | 0% | 0/11 |
| 15 or more | 6% | 1/17 | 0% | 0/11 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/17 | 0% | 0/11 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Shapovalov | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 12–5 | 6–5 |
| Avg odds | 2.15 | 1.50 |
| ROI % | +12.3% | -28.7% |
| Units P/L | +2.09u | -3.16u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Shapovalov | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 1 |
| Events | 2 | 1 |
| Matches | 7 | 1 |
| Distance | 2,080 mi · 3,347 km | 0 mi · 0 km |
| Route | CHN → JPN | CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Musetti has a higher win rate against shared opponents (67% vs Shapovalov's 22%).
| Opponent | Shapovalov | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| Carlos Alcaraz | L | L 46 16 |
| Hubert Hurkacz | L 76 36 36 | W 64 76 |
| Tallon Griekspoor | W 64 76 | W 64 75 |
| Jaime Faria | L 46 57 46 | W 75 62 |
| Rafael Jodar | L 57 64 57 | L 46 36 |
| Alex de Minaur | L 46 16 | W 75 36 75 |
| Casper Ruud | L 36 46 | L 36 16 |
| Tomas Martin Etcheverry | W 63 26 76 | W 67 62 64 |
| Raphael Collignon | L 46 26 | W |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Carlos Alcaraz
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · Quarterfinals
Oct 4
Alejandro Tabilo
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Sho Shimabukuro
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Oct 1
Hubert Hurkacz
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · Semifinals
Sep 28
Adrian Mannarino
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · Quarterfinals
Sep 27
Vit Kopriva
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · 2nd Round
Sep 25
Tallon Griekspoor
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · 1st Round
Sep 24
Ben Shelton
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 5
Yi Zhou
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 9
Dane Sweeny
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Arthur Fery
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 1
Frances Tiafoe
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 22
Jaime Faria
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Michael Zheng
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Daniel Altmaier
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Rafael Jodar
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 43–45 matches
| Metric | Shapovalov | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 56% | 60% |
| Sets won | 52% | 59% |
| Games won | 51% | 52% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Shapovalov | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 0 | 1 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Shapovalov | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 2 |
Share this matchup
Copy the link to paste in Discord or group chats.