Denis Shapovalov vs Lorenzo MusettiPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Denis Shapovalov and Lorenzo Musetti have met 2 times since 2024; Lorenzo Musetti leads 2–0. Their first meeting came at BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells in 2024 on hard. On hard courts Musetti leads 2–0. Musetti has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings Shapovalov has taken 1 sets to Musetti's 5. Their most recent meeting: Lorenzo Musetti won at Australian Open - Melbourne (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Shapovalov | Musetti | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Denis Shapovalov | Lorenzo Musetti | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 44% | 8/18 | 72% | 21/29 |
| Wins a set when losing | 28% | 5/18 | 24% | 4/17 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 42% | 15/36 | 26% | 12/46 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 30% | 7/23 | 59% | 20/34 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 62% | 8/13 | 30% | 3/10 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 60% | 6/10 | 47% | 7/15 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 83% | 15/18 | 90% | 26/29 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 44% | 8/18 | 72% | 21/29 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 0 of 1 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Shapovalov 0, Musetti 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Shapovalov
💥 Big Hitter
Musetti
🎯 Baseliner
Matchup analysis
💥 Big Hitter vs 🎯 Baseliner is historically tight (52% vs 48%, 1,047 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
2 career meetings, newest first
Jan 16, 2025
Australian Open - Melbourne
H Hard · 2nd Round
Mar 9, 2024
BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells
H Hard · 2nd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Shapovalov | Musetti | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Denis Shapovalov | Lorenzo Musetti | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 10/10 | 88% | 7/8 |
| 3 or more | 80% | 8/10 | 63% | 5/8 |
| 5 or more | 70% | 7/10 | 25% | 2/8 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/10 | 0% | 0/8 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/10 | 0% | 0/8 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/10 | 0% | 0/8 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Shapovalov | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 6–5 | 5–3 |
| Avg odds | 2.01 | 1.62 |
| ROI % | -7.8% | -18.1% |
| Units P/L | -0.86u | -1.45u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Shapovalov | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 2 | 3 |
| Matches | 5 | 7 |
| Distance | 1,847 mi · 2,972 km | 1,200 mi · 1,932 km |
| Route | MEX → USA | USA → CAN → USA |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Musetti has a higher win rate against shared opponents (60% vs Shapovalov's 30%).
| Opponent | Shapovalov | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| Jaime Faria | L 46 57 46 | W 75 62 |
| Rafael Jodar | L 57 64 57 | L 46 36 |
| Daniel Altmaier | L 57 36 | W 64 62 |
| Adrian Mannarino | W 61 64 | W 63 63 |
| Alex de Minaur | L 46 16 | W 75 36 75 |
| Casper Ruud | L 36 46 | L 36 16 |
| Jiri Lehecka | L 46 46 | L 36 36 |
| Tallon Griekspoor | W 64 36 62 | W 64 75 |
| Jannik Sinner | L 36 26 | L 16 46 26 |
| Tomas Martin Etcheverry | W 63 26 76 | W 67 62 64 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Rafael Jodar
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Adrian Mannarino
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 13
Arthur Gea
Mifel Tennis Open - Los Cabos · Final
Aug 1
Cameron Norrie
Mifel Tennis Open - Los Cabos · Semifinals
Jul 31
Dalibor Svrcina
Mifel Tennis Open - Los Cabos · Quarterfinals
Jul 31
Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez
Mifel Tennis Open - Los Cabos · 2nd Round
Jul 30
Rinky Hijikata
Mifel Tennis Open - Los Cabos · 1st Round
Jul 29
Pablo Carreno Busta
Wimbledon · Round of 128
Jun 30
Frances Tiafoe
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 22
Jaime Faria
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Michael Zheng
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Daniel Altmaier
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Rafael Jodar
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Nicolas Mejia
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Rafael Jodar
Citi Open - Washington · Quarterfinals
Jul 31
Aleksandar Vukic
Citi Open - Washington · 2nd Round
Jul 29
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 39–52 matches
| Metric | Shapovalov | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 46% | 65% |
| Sets won | 43% | 62% |
| Games won | 49% | 54% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Shapovalov | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 0 | 1 |
| ATP World Tour Masters 1000 | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Shapovalov | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 2 |
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