Casper Ruud vs Sebastian BaezPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Casper Ruud and Sebastian Baez have met 3 times since 2023; Casper Ruud leads 3–0. Their first meeting came at Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril in 2023 on clay. On clay courts Ruud leads 3–0. Ruud has won the last 3 meetings. Across all meetings Ruud has taken 6 sets to Baez's 2. Their most recent meeting: Casper Ruud won at Gonet Geneva Open - Geneva (2024).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Ruud | Baez | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Casper Ruud | Sebastian Baez | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 77% | 24/31 | 76% | 26/34 |
| Wins a set when losing | 15% | 2/13 | 23% | 6/26 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 20% | 9/44 | 23% | 14/60 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 56% | 20/36 | 61% | 17/28 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 57% | 4/7 | 54% | 15/28 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 50% | 11/22 | 58% | 7/12 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 93% | 25/27 | 83% | 29/35 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 89% | 24/27 | 74% | 26/35 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Ruud 1, Baez 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Ruud
🤖 Servebot
Baez
🎾 All-Court
Matchup analysis
The 🤖 Servebot archetype wins about 54% vs 🎾 All-Court across 703 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Casper Ruud.
Servebot players often use high ace rate and dominant service to pressure the all-court's tactical versatility.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
May 23, 2024
Gonet Geneva Open - Geneva
C Clay · Quarterfinals
Jul 26, 2023
Hamburg European Open - Hamburg
C Clay · 1st Round
Apr 7, 2023
Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril
C Clay · Quarterfinals
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Ruud | Baez | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Casper Ruud | Sebastian Baez | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 6/6 | 68% | 13/19 |
| 3 or more | 83% | 5/6 | 32% | 6/19 |
| 5 or more | 50% | 3/6 | 16% | 3/19 |
| 10 or more | 33% | 2/6 | 0% | 0/19 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/6 | 0% | 0/19 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/6 | 0% | 0/19 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Ruud | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 6–3 | 8–9 |
| Avg odds | 1.59 | 2.43 |
| ROI % | +4.7% | -17.4% |
| Units P/L | +0.42u | -2.95u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Ruud | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 3 | 1 |
| Events | 3 | 3 |
| Matches | 4 | 4 |
| Distance | 7,032 mi · 11,317 km | 1,611 mi · 2,592 km |
| Route | GBR → JPN → CHN | CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Ruud has a higher win rate against shared opponents (80% vs Baez's 30%).
| Opponent | Ruud | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Learner Tien | W 64 76 | L 36 67 |
| Valentin Vacherot | W 36 63 64 | L 46 67 |
| Marcos Giron | W 46 76 64 | W 16 63 64 |
| Luciano Darderi | L 67 36 | L 46 36 |
| Jenson Brooksby | W 63 75 | L 57 57 |
| Juan Manuel Cerundolo | W 61 62 | L |
| Hubert Hurkacz | L 46 26 67 | L 64 06 36 |
| Mattia Bellucci | W 61 62 64 | W 75 63 |
| Jaime Faria | W 67 64 62 | L 57 16 |
| Jiri Lehecka | W 63 64 | W 64 61 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Learner Tien
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 12
Bu Yunchaokete
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Luciano Darderi
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Oct 1
Francisco Cerundolo
Laver Cup - London · Round Robin
Sep 25
Fnu Nidunjianzan
Davis Cup, Group I, 1R, NOR-CHN 4-0 · Rubber 4
Sep 19
Rigele Te
Davis Cup, Group I, 1R, NOR-CHN 4-0 · Rubber 1
Sep 18
Christopher O'Connell
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Joao Fonseca
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 8
Valentin Vacherot
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Marcos Giron
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 8
Juncheng Shang
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 1
Jenson Brooksby
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · 1st Round
Sep 23
Brandon Nakashima
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 31
Hugo Grenier
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 2nd Round
Aug 26
Juan Manuel Cerundolo
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 3rd Round
Aug 26
Hubert Hurkacz
Cancun Challenger · Final
Aug 24
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 53–65 matches
| Metric | Ruud | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 70% | 54% |
| Sets won | 64% | 52% |
| Games won | 55% | 50% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Ruud | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| ATP 500 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP 250 | 2 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Ruud | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Clay | 3 | 0 |
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