Casper Ruud vs Sebastian BaezPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Casper Ruud and Sebastian Baez have met 3 times since 2023; Casper Ruud leads 3–0. Their first meeting came at Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril in 2023 on clay. On clay courts Ruud leads 3–0. Ruud has won the last 3 meetings. Across all meetings Ruud has taken 6 sets to Baez's 2. Their most recent meeting: Casper Ruud won at Gonet Geneva Open - Geneva (2024).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Ruud | Baez | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Casper Ruud | Sebastian Baez | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 77% | 23/30 | 76% | 26/34 |
| Wins a set when losing | 23% | 3/13 | 19% | 5/26 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 23% | 10/43 | 22% | 13/60 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 58% | 21/36 | 63% | 17/27 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 50% | 3/6 | 52% | 15/29 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 53% | 10/19 | 64% | 7/11 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 89% | 24/27 | 85% | 29/34 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 85% | 23/27 | 76% | 26/34 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Ruud 1, Baez 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Ruud
💥 Big Hitter
Baez
🎾 All-Court
Matchup analysis
💥 Big Hitter vs 🎾 All-Court is historically tight (49% vs 51%, 620 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
May 23, 2024
Gonet Geneva Open - Geneva
C Clay · Quarterfinals
Jul 26, 2023
Hamburg European Open - Hamburg
C Clay · 1st Round
Apr 7, 2023
Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril
C Clay · Quarterfinals
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Ruud | Baez | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Casper Ruud | Sebastian Baez | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 5/5 | 76% | 16/21 |
| 3 or more | 80% | 4/5 | 29% | 6/21 |
| 5 or more | 20% | 1/5 | 10% | 2/21 |
| 10 or more | 20% | 1/5 | 0% | 0/21 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/5 | 0% | 0/21 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/5 | 0% | 0/21 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Ruud | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 2–3 | 14–6 |
| Avg odds | 1.75 | 1.90 |
| ROI % | -48.8% | +8.8% |
| Units P/L | -2.44u | +1.76u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Ruud | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 3 |
| Events | 1 | 4 |
| Matches | 2 | 9 |
| Distance | 0 mi · 0 km | 3,066 mi · 4,934 km |
| Route | CAN | CAN → USA → MEX → USA |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Ruud has a higher win rate against shared opponents (80% vs Baez's 60%).
| Opponent | Ruud | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Hubert Hurkacz | L 46 26 67 | L 64 06 36 |
| Mattia Bellucci | W 61 62 64 | W 75 63 |
| Jaime Faria | W 67 64 62 | L 57 16 |
| Jenson Brooksby | W 63 75 | W 63 76 |
| Luciano Darderi | W 61 61 | L 46 36 |
| Jiri Lehecka | W 63 64 | W 64 61 |
| Jaume Munar | W 60 61 | W 64 64 |
| Carlos Alcaraz | L 16 67 | L 16 36 |
| Stan Wawrinka | W 64 76 | W 75 75 |
| Marcos Giron | W 46 76 64 | W 61 64 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Joao Fonseca
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 8
Juan Manuel Cerundolo
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Juan Manuel Cerundolo
EFG Swiss Open - Gstaad · Quarterfinals
Jul 17
Jaime Faria
EFG Swiss Open - Gstaad · 2nd Round
Jul 16
Hubert Hurkacz
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 29
Joao Fonseca
French Open - Paris · 4th Round
May 31
Tommy Paul
French Open - Paris · 3rd Round
May 29
Hamad Medjedovic
French Open - Paris · 2nd Round
May 27
Hugo Grenier
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 2nd Round
Aug 26
Hubert Hurkacz
Cancun Challenger · Final
Aug 24
Lloyd Harris
Cancun Challenger · Semifinals
Aug 23
Chak Pong Marco Lam
Cancun Challenger · Quarterfinals
Aug 22
Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez
Cancun Challenger · 2nd Round
Aug 21
Learner Tien
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Grigor Dimitrov
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 14
Zizou Bergs
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 52–64 matches
| Metric | Ruud | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 69% | 55% |
| Sets won | 64% | 53% |
| Games won | 55% | 50% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Ruud | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| ATP World Tour 250 | 2 | 0 |
| ATP World Tour 500 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Ruud | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Clay | 3 | 0 |
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