Carlos Alcaraz vs Holger RunePrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Carlos Alcaraz and Holger Rune have met 4 times since 2021; they are level 2–2. Their first meeting came at Next Gen ATP Finals - Milan in 2021 on hard. On hard courts they are level 1–1. 1 of their meetings has been a final, with Rune leading those 1–0. Across all meetings Alcaraz has taken 6 sets to Rune's 3. Their most recent meeting: Holger Rune won at Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell - Barcelona (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Alcaraz | Rune | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Carlos Alcaraz | Holger Rune | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 72% | 18/25 | 50% | 2/4 |
| Wins a set when losing | 40% | 2/5 | 50% | 1/2 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 30% | 9/30 | 50% | 3/6 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 64% | 18/28 | 40% | 2/5 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 0% | 0/2 | 100% | 1/1 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 54% | 7/13 | 33% | 1/3 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 95% | 21/22 | 67% | 2/3 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 82% | 18/22 | 67% | 2/3 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Small sample — read with care. Head-to-head: 1 of 1 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Alcaraz 0, Rune 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Alcaraz
👑 The Complete Package
Rune
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
The 💥 Big Hitter archetype wins about 53% vs 👑 The Complete Package across 1,618 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Holger Rune.
Big Hitter players often use power groundstrokes and high winner count to pressure the the complete package's elite serve & return.
Previous meetings
4 career meetings, newest first
Apr 20, 2025
Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell - Barcelona
C Clay · Final
Jul 12, 2023
Wimbledon - London
G Grass · Quarterfinals
Nov 4, 2022
ATP Masters 1000 Paris
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Nov 9, 2021
Next Gen ATP Finals - Milan
H Hard · Round Robin
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Alcaraz | Rune |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 11–1 | 2–2 |
| Avg odds | 1.15 | 1.58 |
| ROI % | +4.3% | -17.5% |
| Units P/L | +0.51u | -0.70u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Alcaraz | Rune |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 3 | 2 |
| Events | 3 | 2 |
| Matches | 7 | 2 |
| Distance | 7,032 mi · 11,317 km | 1,092 mi · 1,758 km |
| Route | GBR → JPN → CHN | JPN → CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Across 2 shared opponents, both Alcaraz and Rune posted a 100% win rate.
| Opponent | Alcaraz | Rune |
|---|---|---|
| Grigor Dimitrov | W 62 63 | W 36 63 76 |
| Tomas Martin Etcheverry | W 61 46 63 | W 67 63 64 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Juan Manuel Cerundolo
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Jiri Lehecka
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · Final
Oct 6
Jaume Munar
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · Semifinals
Oct 5
Denis Shapovalov
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · Quarterfinals
Oct 4
Matteo Arnaldi
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Alex Michelsen
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Oct 1
Taylor Fritz
Laver Cup - London · Round Robin
Sep 26
Ben Shelton
U.S. Open - New York · Quarterfinals
Sep 9
Daniel Altmaier
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 7
Kyrian Jacquet
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Oct 1
Grigor Dimitrov
Davis Cup, Group I, 1R, DEN-BUL 3-2 · Rubber 4
Sep 19
Iliyan Radulov
Davis Cup, Group I, 1R, DEN-BUL 3-2 · Rubber 2
Sep 18
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
BNP Paribas Nordic Open - Stockholm · Quarterfinals
Oct 17
Marton Fucsovics
BNP Paribas Nordic Open - Stockholm · 2nd Round
Oct 16
Valentin Vacherot
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · Quarterfinals
Oct 9
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 4th Round
Oct 7
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 6–42 matches
| Metric | Alcaraz | Rune |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 86% | 67% |
| Sets won | 78% | 60% |
| Games won | 59% | 53% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Alcaraz | Rune |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 0 | 1 |
| Grand Slam | 1 | 0 |
| ATP 500 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 0 | 1 |
| Other | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Alcaraz | Rune |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 1 |
| Clay | 0 | 1 |
| Grass | 1 | 0 |
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