Aryna Sabalenka vs Marta KostyukPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇧🇾Aryna Sabalenka
#1 · 28 yrs · Right-Handed
5 meetings · sets 10–0
🇺🇦Marta Kostyuk
#11 · 23 yrs · Right-Handed
Aryna Sabalenka and Marta Kostyuk have met 5 times since 2022; Aryna Sabalenka leads 5–0. Their first meeting came at Dubai Duty Free Championships - Dubai in 2022 on hard. On clay courts Sabalenka leads 3–0. On hard courts Sabalenka leads 2–0. Sabalenka has won the last 5 meetings. 1 of their meetings has been a final, with Sabalenka leading those 1–0. Across all meetings Sabalenka has taken 10 sets to Kostyuk's 0. Their most recent meeting: Aryna Sabalenka won at Brisbane International - Brisbane (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Sabalenka | Kostyuk | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Aryna Sabalenka | Marta Kostyuk | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 84% | 42/50 | 73% | 27/37 |
| Wins a set when losing | 70% | 7/10 | 45% | 5/11 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 25% | 15/60 | 31% | 15/48 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 69% | 41/59 | 62% | 21/34 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | — | 71% | 10/14 | |
| Tiebreak sets won | 63% | 12/19 | 54% | 7/13 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 92% | 45/49 | 91% | 31/34 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 86% | 42/49 | 79% | 27/34 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 5 of 5 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Sabalenka 5, Kostyuk 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Sabalenka
💥 Big Hitter
Kostyuk
👑 The Complete Package
Matchup analysis
💥 Big Hitter vs 👑 The Complete Package is historically tight (48% vs 52%, 3,896 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
5 career meetings, newest first
Jan 11, 2026
Brisbane International - Brisbane
H Hard · Final
May 12, 2025
Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome
C Clay · 4th Round
Apr 30, 2025
Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid
C Clay · Quarterfinals
May 28, 2023
French Open - Paris
C Clay · 1st Round
Feb 15, 2022
Dubai Duty Free Championships - Dubai
H Hard · 1st Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Sabalenka | Kostyuk | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Aryna Sabalenka | Marta Kostyuk | ||
| 1 or more | 93% | 13/14 | 100% | 15/15 |
| 3 or more | 86% | 12/14 | 60% | 9/15 |
| 5 or more | 71% | 10/14 | 47% | 7/15 |
| 10 or more | 14% | 2/14 | 0% | 0/15 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/14 | 0% | 0/15 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/14 | 0% | 0/15 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Sabalenka | Kostyuk |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 10–5 | 11–4 |
| Avg odds | 1.16 | 1.55 |
| ROI % | -26.5% | +3.3% |
| Units P/L | -3.97u | +0.49u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Sabalenka | Kostyuk |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 2 | 2 |
| Matches | 5 | 7 |
| Distance | 411 mi · 662 km | 411 mi · 662 km |
| Route | CAN → POL | CAN → POL |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Sabalenka has a higher win rate against shared opponents (90% vs Kostyuk's 70%).
| Opponent | Sabalenka | Kostyuk |
|---|---|---|
| Coco Gauff | W 62 46 63 | L 26 26 |
| Madison Keys | W 63 63 | W 63 61 |
| Linda Noskova | W 63 64 | L 46 46 |
| Jasmine Paolini | W 63 61 | W 63 62 |
| Jessica Pegula | L 46 76 06 | W 61 64 |
| Elina Svitolina | W 62 63 | W 63 26 62 |
| Elsa Jacquemot | W 75 62 | L 76 67 67 |
| Jessica Bouzas Maneiro | W 64 62 | W 76 62 |
| Anastasia Potapova | W 76 76 | W 62 16 61 |
| Caty Mcnally | W 64 62 | W 62 63 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Sara Bejlek
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Xinyu Wang
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 19
Talia Gibson
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Ekaterina Alexandrova
National Bank Open - Toronto · 4th Round
Aug 9
Shuai Zhang
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Moyuka Uchijima
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Naomi Osaka
Wimbledon - London · 4th Round
Jul 5
Jelena Ostapenko
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 3
Coco Gauff
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 22
Mirra Andreeva
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 19
Sloane Stephens
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Sofia Kenin
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Iga Swiatek
National Bank Open - Toronto · 4th Round
Aug 8
Madison Keys
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Katherine Sebov
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 4
Linda Noskova
Wimbledon - London · Semifinals
Jul 9
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 48–60 matches
| Metric | Sabalenka | Kostyuk |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 83% | 77% |
| Sets won | 79% | 71% |
| Games won | 59% | 59% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Sabalenka | Kostyuk |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 1 | 0 |
| Grand Slam | 1 | 0 |
| WTA 500 | 2 | 0 |
| WTA 1000 | 2 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Sabalenka | Kostyuk |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 2 | 0 |
| Clay | 3 | 0 |
Share this matchup
Copy the link to paste in Discord or group chats.