Aryna Sabalenka vs Marta KostyukPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇧🇾Aryna Sabalenka
#2 · 28 yrs · Right-Handed
5 meetings · sets 10–0
🇺🇦Marta Kostyuk
#10 · 23 yrs · Right-Handed
4wAryna Sabalenka and Marta Kostyuk have met 5 times since 2022; Aryna Sabalenka leads 5–0. Their first meeting came at Dubai Duty Free Championships - Dubai in 2022 on hard. On clay courts Sabalenka leads 3–0. On hard courts Sabalenka leads 2–0. Sabalenka has won the last 5 meetings. 1 of their meetings has been a final, with Sabalenka leading those 1–0. Across all meetings Sabalenka has taken 10 sets to Kostyuk's 0. Their most recent meeting: Aryna Sabalenka won at Brisbane International - Brisbane (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Sabalenka | Kostyuk | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Aryna Sabalenka | Marta Kostyuk | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 86% | 44/51 | 72% | 26/36 |
| Wins a set when losing | 64% | 7/11 | 40% | 4/10 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 23% | 14/62 | 30% | 14/46 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 70% | 42/60 | 59% | 20/34 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | — | 67% | 8/12 | |
| Tiebreak sets won | 68% | 13/19 | 40% | 4/10 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 94% | 48/51 | 91% | 30/33 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 86% | 44/51 | 79% | 26/33 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 5 of 5 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Sabalenka 5, Kostyuk 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Sabalenka
💥 Big Hitter
Kostyuk
👑 The Complete Package
Matchup analysis
💥 Big Hitter vs 👑 The Complete Package is historically tight (48% vs 52%, 4,271 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
5 career meetings, newest first
Jan 11, 2026
Brisbane International - Brisbane
H Hard · Final
May 12, 2025
Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome
C Clay · 4th Round
Apr 30, 2025
Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid
C Clay · Quarterfinals
May 28, 2023
French Open - Paris
C Clay · 1st Round
Feb 15, 2022
Dubai Duty Free Championships - Dubai
H Hard · 1st Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Sabalenka | Kostyuk | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Aryna Sabalenka | Marta Kostyuk | ||
| 1 or more | 93% | 14/15 | 100% | 12/12 |
| 3 or more | 87% | 13/15 | 75% | 9/12 |
| 5 or more | 67% | 10/15 | 58% | 7/12 |
| 10 or more | 27% | 4/15 | 0% | 0/12 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/12 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/12 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Sabalenka | Kostyuk |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 10–4 | 8–4 |
| Avg odds | 1.17 | 1.49 |
| ROI % | -18.6% | -11.8% |
| Units P/L | -2.61u | -1.41u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Sabalenka | Kostyuk |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 1 |
| Events | 1 | 1 |
| Matches | 2 | 1 |
| Distance | 0 mi · 0 km | 0 mi · 0 km |
| Route | ROU | UKR |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Sabalenka has a higher win rate against shared opponents (80% vs Kostyuk's 70%).
| Opponent | Sabalenka | Kostyuk |
|---|---|---|
| Elena Rybakina | L 46 75 26 | L 36 46 |
| Jessica Pegula | W 75 62 | W 61 64 |
| Linda Noskova | W 76 36 76 | L 57 75 46 |
| Taylor Townsend | W 64 63 | W 63 62 |
| Kamilla Rakhimova | W 63 64 | W 62 64 |
| Ekaterina Alexandrova | L 67 64 46 | W 63 62 |
| Coco Gauff | W 62 46 63 | L 26 26 |
| Madison Keys | W 63 63 | W 63 61 |
| Jasmine Paolini | W 63 61 | W 63 62 |
| Elina Svitolina | W 62 63 | W 63 26 62 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Nikola Bartunkova
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round
Oct 4
Renata Zarazua
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 2
Elena Rybakina
U.S. Open - New York · Final
Sep 12
Jessica Pegula
U.S. Open - New York · Semifinals
Sep 10
Linda Noskova
U.S. Open - New York · Quarterfinals
Sep 8
Taylor Townsend
U.S. Open - New York · 4th Round
Sep 6
Kamilla Rakhimova
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 4
Polina Iatcenko
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Liudmila Samsonova
Guadalajara Open Akron - Guadalajara · Quarterfinals
Sep 17
Linda Noskova
U.S. Open - New York · 4th Round
Sep 6
Ekaterina Alexandrova
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 4
Sloane Stephens
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 2
Storm Hunter
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 30
Coco Gauff
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 22
Mirra Andreeva
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 19
Sloane Stephens
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 46–62 matches
| Metric | Sabalenka | Kostyuk |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 82% | 78% |
| Sets won | 79% | 72% |
| Games won | 59% | 59% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Sabalenka | Kostyuk |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 1 | 0 |
| Grand Slam | 1 | 0 |
| WTA 500 | 2 | 0 |
| WTA 1000 | 2 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Sabalenka | Kostyuk |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 2 | 0 |
| Clay | 3 | 0 |
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