Aryna Sabalenka vs Maria SakkariPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇧🇾Aryna Sabalenka
#2 · 28 yrs · Right-Handed
10 meetings · sets 16–7
🇬🇷Maria Sakkari
#35 · 30 yrs · Right-Handed
Aryna Sabalenka and Maria Sakkari have met 10 times since 2019; Aryna Sabalenka leads 7–3. Their first meeting came at Cincinnati in 2019 on hard. On hard courts Sabalenka leads 6–3. Sabalenka has won the last 3 meetings. Across all meetings Sabalenka has taken 16 sets to Sakkari's 7. Their most recent meeting: Aryna Sabalenka won at WTA Finals - Cancun (2023).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Sabalenka | Sakkari | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Aryna Sabalenka | Maria Sakkari | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 86% | 44/51 | 67% | 16/24 |
| Wins a set when losing | 64% | 7/11 | 32% | 7/22 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 23% | 14/62 | 33% | 15/46 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 70% | 42/60 | 52% | 12/23 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | — | 50% | 11/22 | |
| Tiebreak sets won | 68% | 13/19 | 33% | 4/12 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 94% | 48/51 | 76% | 19/25 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 86% | 44/51 | 64% | 16/25 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 7 of 10 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Sabalenka 6, Sakkari 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Sabalenka
💥 Big Hitter
Sakkari
🤖 Servebot
Matchup analysis
💥 Big Hitter vs 🤖 Servebot is historically tight (49% vs 51%, 3,072 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
10 career meetings, newest first
Oct 29, 2023
WTA Finals - Cancun
H Hard · Round Robin
May 4, 2023
Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid
C Clay · Semifinals
Mar 17, 2023
BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells
H Hard · Semifinals
Nov 2, 2022
WTA Finals - Fort Worth
H Hard · Round Robin
Nov 15, 2021
WTA Finals - Guadalajara
H Hard · Round Robin
Jan 12, 2021
Abu Dhabi Tennis Open - Abu Dhabi
H Hard · Semifinals
Feb 26, 2020
Qatar Total Open - Doha
H Hard · 3rd Round
Feb 18, 2020
Dubai Duty Free Championships - Dubai
H Hard · 1st Round
Oct 24, 2019
Zhuhai
H Hard · Round Robin
Aug 15, 2019
Cincinnati
H Hard · Round of 16
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Sabalenka | Sakkari | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Aryna Sabalenka | Maria Sakkari | ||
| 1 or more | 93% | 14/15 | 86% | 12/14 |
| 3 or more | 87% | 13/15 | 79% | 11/14 |
| 5 or more | 67% | 10/15 | 50% | 7/14 |
| 10 or more | 27% | 4/15 | 0% | 0/14 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/14 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/14 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Sabalenka | Sakkari |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 10–4 | 8–6 |
| Avg odds | 1.17 | 2.17 |
| ROI % | -18.6% | -19.2% |
| Units P/L | -2.61u | -2.69u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Sabalenka | Sakkari |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 2 |
| Events | 1 | 2 |
| Matches | 2 | 5 |
| Distance | 0 mi · 0 km | 2,779 mi · 4,472 km |
| Route | ROU | SGP → ROU |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Sabalenka has a higher win rate against shared opponents (80% vs Sakkari's 30%).
| Opponent | Sabalenka | Sakkari |
|---|---|---|
| Elina Svitolina | W 62 63 | L 46 57 |
| Talia Gibson | W 62 76 | L 16 64 26 |
| Elena Rybakina | L 46 75 26 | L 46 16 |
| Linda Noskova | W 76 36 76 | W 75 76 |
| Kamilla Rakhimova | W 63 64 | W 62 57 61 |
| Coco Gauff | W 62 46 63 | L 16 46 |
| Barbora Krejcikova | W 62 63 | L 67 36 |
| Naomi Osaka | L 26 67 | W 64 62 |
| Jasmine Paolini | W 63 61 | L 16 26 |
| Qinwen Zheng | W 63 64 | L 64 67 46 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Nikola Bartunkova
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round
Oct 4
Renata Zarazua
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 2
Elena Rybakina
U.S. Open - New York · Final
Sep 12
Jessica Pegula
U.S. Open - New York · Semifinals
Sep 10
Linda Noskova
U.S. Open - New York · Quarterfinals
Sep 8
Taylor Townsend
U.S. Open - New York · 4th Round
Sep 6
Kamilla Rakhimova
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 4
Polina Iatcenko
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Elina Svitolina
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round
Oct 5
Storm Hunter
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Talia Gibson
Singapore Tennis Open - Singapore · Quarterfinals
Sep 25
Nao Hibino
Singapore Tennis Open - Singapore · 2nd Round
Sep 24
Linda Fruhvirtova
Singapore Tennis Open - Singapore · 1st Round
Sep 22
Yuliia Starodubtseva
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 4
Robin Montgomery
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 1
Iga Swiatek
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 17
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 46–62 matches
| Metric | Sabalenka | Sakkari |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 82% | 52% |
| Sets won | 79% | 51% |
| Games won | 59% | 51% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Sabalenka | Sakkari |
|---|---|---|
| WTA Finals | 2 | 2 |
| WTA 500 | 1 | 0 |
| WTA 1000 | 2 | 1 |
| Other | 2 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Sabalenka | Sakkari |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 6 | 3 |
| Clay | 1 | 0 |
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