Aryna Sabalenka vs Maria SakkariPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇧🇾Aryna Sabalenka
#1 · 28 yrs · Right-Handed
10 meetings · sets 16–7
🇬🇷Maria Sakkari
#33 · 30 yrs · Right-Handed
Aryna Sabalenka and Maria Sakkari have met 10 times since 2019; Aryna Sabalenka leads 7–3. Their first meeting came at Cincinnati in 2019 on hard. On hard courts Sabalenka leads 6–3. Sabalenka has won the last 3 meetings. Across all meetings Sabalenka has taken 16 sets to Sakkari's 7. Their most recent meeting: Aryna Sabalenka won at WTA Finals - Cancun (2023).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Sabalenka | Sakkari | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Aryna Sabalenka | Maria Sakkari | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 84% | 42/50 | 62% | 13/21 |
| Wins a set when losing | 70% | 7/10 | 24% | 5/21 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 25% | 15/60 | 31% | 13/42 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 69% | 41/59 | 47% | 9/19 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | — | 50% | 11/22 | |
| Tiebreak sets won | 63% | 12/19 | 38% | 5/13 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 92% | 45/49 | 77% | 17/22 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 86% | 42/49 | 59% | 13/22 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 7 of 10 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Sabalenka 6, Sakkari 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Sabalenka
💥 Big Hitter
Sakkari
🤖 Servebot
Matchup analysis
💥 Big Hitter vs 🤖 Servebot is historically tight (49% vs 51%, 3,090 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
10 career meetings, newest first
Oct 29, 2023
WTA Finals - Cancun
H Hard · Round Robin
May 4, 2023
Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid
C Clay · Semifinals
Mar 17, 2023
BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells
H Hard · Semifinals
Nov 2, 2022
WTA Finals - Fort Worth
H Hard · Round Robin
Nov 15, 2021
WTA Finals - Guadalajara
H Hard · Round Robin
Jan 12, 2021
Abu Dhabi Tennis Open - Abu Dhabi
H Hard · Semifinals
Feb 26, 2020
Qatar Total Open - Doha
H Hard · 3rd Round
Feb 18, 2020
Dubai Duty Free Championships - Dubai
H Hard · 1st Round
Oct 24, 2019
Zhuhai
H Hard · Round Robin
Aug 15, 2019
Cincinnati
H Hard · Round of 16
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Sabalenka | Sakkari | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Aryna Sabalenka | Maria Sakkari | ||
| 1 or more | 93% | 13/14 | 86% | 12/14 |
| 3 or more | 86% | 12/14 | 64% | 9/14 |
| 5 or more | 71% | 10/14 | 43% | 6/14 |
| 10 or more | 14% | 2/14 | 7% | 1/14 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/14 | 0% | 0/14 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/14 | 0% | 0/14 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Sabalenka | Sakkari |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 10–5 | 8–6 |
| Avg odds | 1.16 | 2.26 |
| ROI % | -26.5% | -8.9% |
| Units P/L | -3.97u | -1.25u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Sabalenka | Sakkari |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 2 | 2 |
| Matches | 5 | 4 |
| Distance | 411 mi · 662 km | 411 mi · 662 km |
| Route | CAN → POL | CAN → POL |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Sabalenka has a higher win rate against shared opponents (90% vs Sakkari's 20%).
| Opponent | Sabalenka | Sakkari |
|---|---|---|
| Coco Gauff | W 62 46 63 | L 16 46 |
| Barbora Krejcikova | W 62 63 | L 67 36 |
| Naomi Osaka | L 26 67 | W 64 62 |
| Jasmine Paolini | W 63 61 | L 16 26 |
| Qinwen Zheng | W 63 64 | L 64 67 46 |
| Daria Kasatkina | W 60 75 | L 67 46 |
| Elsa Jacquemot | W 75 62 | L 26 06 |
| Linda Noskova | W 63 64 | W 75 76 |
| Peyton Stearns | W 75 63 | L 36 16 |
| Elena Rybakina | W 64 63 | L 46 16 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Sara Bejlek
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Xinyu Wang
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 19
Talia Gibson
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Ekaterina Alexandrova
National Bank Open - Toronto · 4th Round
Aug 9
Shuai Zhang
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Moyuka Uchijima
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Naomi Osaka
Wimbledon - London · 4th Round
Jul 5
Jelena Ostapenko
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 3
Iga Swiatek
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 17
Kamilla Rakhimova
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Coco Gauff
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 8
Zeynep Sonmez
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Barbora Krejcikova
Athens Open - Athens · Final
Jul 19
Alina Korneeva
Athens Open - Athens · Semifinals
Jul 18
Alycia Parks
Athens Open - Athens · Quarterfinals
Jul 17
Harriet Dart
Athens Open - Athens · 2nd Round
Jul 15
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 42–60 matches
| Metric | Sabalenka | Sakkari |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 83% | 50% |
| Sets won | 79% | 48% |
| Games won | 59% | 50% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Sabalenka | Sakkari |
|---|---|---|
| WTA Finals | 2 | 2 |
| WTA 500 | 1 | 0 |
| WTA 1000 | 2 | 1 |
| Other | 2 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Sabalenka | Sakkari |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 6 | 3 |
| Clay | 1 | 0 |
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