Aryna Sabalenka vs Leylah FernandezPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇧🇾Aryna Sabalenka
#1 · 28 yrs · Right-Handed
2 meetings · sets 3–2
🇨🇦Leylah Fernandez
#32 · 23 yrs · Left-Handed
Aryna Sabalenka and Leylah Fernandez have met 2 times since 2021; they are level 1–1. Their first meeting came at U.S. Open - New York in 2021 on hard. On hard courts they are level 1–1. Across all meetings Sabalenka has taken 3 sets to Fernandez's 2. Their most recent meeting: Aryna Sabalenka won at U.S. Open - New York (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Sabalenka | Fernandez | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Aryna Sabalenka | Leylah Fernandez | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 84% | 42/50 | 68% | 17/25 |
| Wins a set when losing | 70% | 7/10 | 31% | 8/26 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 25% | 15/60 | 31% | 16/51 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 69% | 41/59 | 48% | 16/33 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | — | 53% | 9/17 | |
| Tiebreak sets won | 63% | 12/19 | 29% | 5/17 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 92% | 45/49 | 75% | 21/28 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 86% | 42/49 | 61% | 17/28 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 2 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Sabalenka 1, Fernandez 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Sabalenka
💥 Big Hitter
Fernandez
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
Both Aryna Sabalenka and Leylah Fernandez are 💥 Big Hitter types. Mirror matchups usually come down to execution, fitness, and surface fit, across 5,096 matches in our dataset the historical split is about even.
Previous meetings
2 career meetings, newest first
Aug 29, 2025
U.S. Open - New York
H Hard · 3rd Round
Sep 9, 2021
U.S. Open - New York
H Hard · Semifinals
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Sabalenka | Fernandez | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Aryna Sabalenka | Leylah Fernandez | ||
| 1 or more | 93% | 14/15 | 91% | 10/11 |
| 3 or more | 87% | 13/15 | 55% | 6/11 |
| 5 or more | 73% | 11/15 | 27% | 3/11 |
| 10 or more | 20% | 3/15 | 0% | 0/11 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/11 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/11 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Sabalenka | Fernandez |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 11–5 | 4–6 |
| Avg odds | 1.16 | 2.10 |
| ROI % | -23.4% | -8.7% |
| Units P/L | -3.75u | -0.87u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Sabalenka | Fernandez |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 2 | 2 |
| Matches | 5 | 4 |
| Distance | 411 mi · 662 km | 411 mi · 662 km |
| Route | CAN → POL | CAN → POL |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Sabalenka has a higher win rate against shared opponents (50% vs Fernandez's 40%).
| Opponent | Sabalenka | Fernandez |
|---|---|---|
| Naomi Osaka | L 26 67 | L 46 46 |
| Mccartney Kessler | W 61 76 | L 36 26 |
| Jessica Pegula | L 46 76 06 | L 26 26 |
| Diana Shnaider | L 63 57 06 | L 36 06 |
| Victoria Mboko | W 76 64 | L 46 46 |
| Sorana Cirstea | L 62 36 57 | W 64 64 |
| Hailey Baptiste | L 62 26 67 | W 62 75 |
| Ann Li | W 76 64 | W 63 62 |
| Iva Jovic | W 63 60 | W 36 63 62 |
| Elena Rybakina | W 64 63 | L 76 46 67 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Sara Bejlek
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Xinyu Wang
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 19
Talia Gibson
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Ekaterina Alexandrova
National Bank Open - Toronto · 4th Round
Aug 9
Shuai Zhang
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Moyuka Uchijima
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Naomi Osaka
Wimbledon - London · 4th Round
Jul 5
Jelena Ostapenko
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 3
Xiyu Wang
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 17
Naomi Osaka
National Bank Open - Toronto · 4th Round
Aug 10
Mirra Andreeva
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Renata Zarazua
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 6
Alexandra Eala
Mubadala DC Open - Washington · 2nd Round
Jul 29
Magda Linette
Mubadala DC Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 27
Janice Tjen
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 29
Xi Yao Wang
Bad Homburg Open - Bad Homburg · 2nd Round
Jun 23
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 51–60 matches
| Metric | Sabalenka | Fernandez |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 83% | 49% |
| Sets won | 79% | 49% |
| Games won | 59% | 52% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Sabalenka | Fernandez |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 1 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Sabalenka | Fernandez |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 1 |
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