Aryna Sabalenka vs Leylah FernandezPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇧🇾Aryna Sabalenka
#2 · 28 yrs · Right-Handed
2 meetings · sets 3–2
🇨🇦Leylah Fernandez
#25 · 23 yrs · Left-Handed
TitleAryna Sabalenka and Leylah Fernandez have met 2 times since 2021; they are level 1–1. Their first meeting came at U.S. Open - New York in 2021 on hard. On hard courts they are level 1–1. Across all meetings Sabalenka has taken 3 sets to Fernandez's 2. Their most recent meeting: Aryna Sabalenka won at U.S. Open - New York (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Sabalenka | Fernandez | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Aryna Sabalenka | Leylah Fernandez | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 86% | 44/51 | 69% | 22/32 |
| Wins a set when losing | 64% | 7/11 | 31% | 8/26 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 23% | 14/62 | 31% | 18/58 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 70% | 42/60 | 50% | 20/40 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | — | 56% | 10/18 | |
| Tiebreak sets won | 68% | 13/19 | 29% | 5/17 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 94% | 48/51 | 79% | 27/34 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 86% | 44/51 | 65% | 22/34 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 2 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Sabalenka 1, Fernandez 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Sabalenka
💥 Big Hitter
Fernandez
🤖 Servebot
Matchup analysis
💥 Big Hitter vs 🤖 Servebot is historically tight (49% vs 51%, 3,072 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
2 career meetings, newest first
Aug 29, 2025
U.S. Open - New York
H Hard · 3rd Round
Sep 9, 2021
U.S. Open - New York
H Hard · Semifinals
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Sabalenka | Fernandez | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Aryna Sabalenka | Leylah Fernandez | ||
| 1 or more | 93% | 14/15 | 93% | 14/15 |
| 3 or more | 87% | 13/15 | 40% | 6/15 |
| 5 or more | 67% | 10/15 | 13% | 2/15 |
| 10 or more | 27% | 4/15 | 0% | 0/15 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/15 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/15 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Sabalenka | Fernandez |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 10–4 | 11–5 |
| Avg odds | 1.17 | 2.16 |
| ROI % | -18.6% | +32.2% |
| Units P/L | -2.61u | +5.15u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Sabalenka | Fernandez |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 3 |
| Events | 1 | 3 |
| Matches | 2 | 7 |
| Distance | 0 mi · 0 km | 3,433 mi · 5,525 km |
| Route | ROU | SGP → ROU → CZE |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Sabalenka has a higher win rate against shared opponents (60% vs Fernandez's 40%).
| Opponent | Sabalenka | Fernandez |
|---|---|---|
| Ekaterina Alexandrova | L 67 64 46 | W 64 36 63 |
| Kamilla Rakhimova | W 63 64 | L 26 64 36 |
| Renata Zarazua | W 61 63 | W 62 62 |
| Talia Gibson | W 62 76 | W 75 60 |
| Elena Rybakina | L 46 75 26 | L 76 46 67 |
| Jessica Pegula | W 75 62 | L 61 46 36 |
| Shuai Zhang | W 63 64 | W 63 62 |
| Naomi Osaka | L 26 67 | L 46 46 |
| Mccartney Kessler | W 61 76 | L 36 26 |
| Diana Shnaider | L 63 57 06 | L 36 06 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Nikola Bartunkova
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round
Oct 4
Renata Zarazua
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 2
Elena Rybakina
U.S. Open - New York · Final
Sep 12
Jessica Pegula
U.S. Open - New York · Semifinals
Sep 10
Linda Noskova
U.S. Open - New York · Quarterfinals
Sep 8
Taylor Townsend
U.S. Open - New York · 4th Round
Sep 6
Kamilla Rakhimova
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 4
Polina Iatcenko
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Ekaterina Alexandrova
Wuhan Open - Wuhan · 1st Round
Oct 12
Kamilla Rakhimova
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Talia Gibson
Singapore Tennis Open - Singapore · Final
Sep 27
Maja Chwalinska
Singapore Tennis Open - Singapore · Semifinals
Sep 26
Mirra Andreeva
Singapore Tennis Open - Singapore · Quarterfinals
Sep 25
Alycia Parks
Singapore Tennis Open - Singapore · 2nd Round
Sep 23
Kyoka Okamura
Singapore Tennis Open - Singapore · 1st Round
Sep 21
Jessica Pegula
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 4
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 58–62 matches
| Metric | Sabalenka | Fernandez |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 82% | 55% |
| Sets won | 79% | 54% |
| Games won | 59% | 53% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Sabalenka | Fernandez |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 1 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Sabalenka | Fernandez |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 1 |
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