Jessica Pegula vs Leylah FernandezPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇺🇸Jessica Pegula
#3 · 32 yrs · Right-Handed
4 meetings · sets 7–3
🇨🇦Leylah Fernandez
#32 · 23 yrs · Left-Handed
Jessica Pegula and Leylah Fernandez have met 4 times since 2024; Jessica Pegula leads 3–1. Their first meeting came at Miami Open - Miami in 2024 on hard. On hard courts Pegula leads 3–1. Across all meetings Pegula has taken 7 sets to Fernandez's 3. Their most recent meeting: Jessica Pegula won at Miami Open - Miami (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Pegula | Fernandez | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Jessica Pegula | Leylah Fernandez | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 54% | 31/57 | 68% | 17/25 |
| Wins a set when losing | 47% | 9/19 | 31% | 8/26 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 46% | 35/76 | 31% | 16/51 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 50% | 30/60 | 48% | 16/33 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 63% | 10/16 | 53% | 9/17 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 63% | 12/19 | 29% | 5/17 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 88% | 42/48 | 75% | 21/28 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 65% | 31/48 | 61% | 17/28 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 4 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Pegula 2, Fernandez 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Pegula
💥 Big Hitter
Fernandez
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
Both Jessica Pegula and Leylah Fernandez are 💥 Big Hitter types. Mirror matchups usually come down to execution, fitness, and surface fit, across 5,096 matches in our dataset the historical split is about even.
Previous meetings
4 career meetings, newest first
Mar 22, 2026
Miami Open - Miami
H Hard · 3rd Round
Jul 24, 2025
Mubadala Citi DC Open - Washington
H Hard · 2nd Round
Aug 17, 2024
Western & Southern Open - Cincinnati
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Mar 24, 2024
Miami Open - Miami
H Hard · 3rd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Pegula | Fernandez | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Jessica Pegula | Leylah Fernandez | ||
| 1 or more | 95% | 20/21 | 91% | 10/11 |
| 3 or more | 76% | 16/21 | 55% | 6/11 |
| 5 or more | 33% | 7/21 | 27% | 3/11 |
| 10 or more | 5% | 1/21 | 0% | 0/11 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/21 | 0% | 0/11 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/21 | 0% | 0/11 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Pegula | Fernandez |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 17–5 | 4–6 |
| Avg odds | 1.48 | 2.10 |
| ROI % | +10.4% | -8.7% |
| Units P/L | +2.29u | -0.87u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Pegula | Fernandez |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 3 | 2 |
| Events | 3 | 2 |
| Matches | 11 | 4 |
| Distance | 761 mi · 1,225 km | 411 mi · 662 km |
| Route | AUT → CAN → POL | CAN → POL |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Pegula has a higher win rate against shared opponents (70% vs Fernandez's 40%).
| Opponent | Pegula | Fernandez |
|---|---|---|
| Coco Gauff | L 26 46 | L 46 64 57 |
| Sorana Cirstea | W 62 46 75 | W 64 64 |
| Diana Shnaider | L 36 36 | L 36 06 |
| Magdalena Frech | W 36 63 62 | W 64 36 64 |
| Alexandra Eala | L 64 46 06 | L 26 67 |
| Iva Jovic | W 46 63 61 | W 36 63 62 |
| Katie Boulter | W 64 64 | W 67 63 63 |
| Katerina Siniakova | W 62 64 | L 75 46 67 |
| Zeynep Sonmez | W 64 60 | L 46 67 |
| Rebeka Masarova | W 60 60 | L 64 46 46 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Coco Gauff
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Final
Aug 24
Iga Swiatek
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Semifinals
Aug 22
Amanda Anisimova
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 20
Sorana Cirstea
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 19
Emma Navarro
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Simona Waltert
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Diana Shnaider
National Bank Open - Toronto · 4th Round
Aug 8
Kamilla Rakhimova
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 6
Xiyu Wang
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 17
Naomi Osaka
National Bank Open - Toronto · 4th Round
Aug 10
Mirra Andreeva
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Renata Zarazua
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 6
Alexandra Eala
Mubadala DC Open - Washington · 2nd Round
Jul 29
Magda Linette
Mubadala DC Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 27
Janice Tjen
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 29
Xi Yao Wang
Bad Homburg Open - Bad Homburg · 2nd Round
Jun 23
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 51–76 matches
| Metric | Pegula | Fernandez |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 75% | 49% |
| Sets won | 66% | 49% |
| Games won | 56% | 52% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Pegula | Fernandez |
|---|---|---|
| WTA 500 | 0 | 1 |
| WTA 1000 | 3 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Pegula | Fernandez |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 3 | 1 |
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