Aryna Sabalenka vs Emma NavarroPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇧🇾Aryna Sabalenka
#1 · 28 yrs · Right-Handed
3 meetings · sets 5–2
🇺🇸Emma Navarro
#27 · 25 yrs · Right-Handed
Aryna Sabalenka and Emma Navarro have met 3 times since 2024; Aryna Sabalenka leads 2–1. Their first meeting came at BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells in 2024 on hard. On hard courts they are level 1–1. Sabalenka has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings Sabalenka has taken 5 sets to Navarro's 2. Their most recent meeting: Aryna Sabalenka won at U.S. Open - New York (2024).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Sabalenka | Navarro | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Aryna Sabalenka | Emma Navarro | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 84% | 42/50 | 52% | 13/25 |
| Wins a set when losing | 70% | 7/10 | 50% | 11/22 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 25% | 15/60 | 49% | 23/47 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 69% | 41/59 | 37% | 11/30 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | — | 69% | 11/16 | |
| Tiebreak sets won | 63% | 12/19 | 62% | 8/13 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 92% | 45/49 | 86% | 19/22 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 86% | 42/49 | 59% | 13/22 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Sabalenka 2, Navarro 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Sabalenka
💥 Big Hitter
Navarro
🤖 Servebot
Matchup analysis
💥 Big Hitter vs 🤖 Servebot is historically tight (49% vs 51%, 3,090 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Sep 5, 2024
U.S. Open - New York
H Hard · Semifinals
Jun 3, 2024
French Open - Paris
C Clay · 4th Round
Mar 13, 2024
BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells
H Hard · 4th Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Sabalenka | Navarro | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Aryna Sabalenka | Emma Navarro | ||
| 1 or more | 93% | 14/15 | 94% | 16/17 |
| 3 or more | 87% | 13/15 | 71% | 12/17 |
| 5 or more | 73% | 11/15 | 47% | 8/17 |
| 10 or more | 20% | 3/15 | 24% | 4/17 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 12% | 2/17 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/17 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Sabalenka | Navarro |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 11–5 | 10–6 |
| Avg odds | 1.16 | 1.86 |
| ROI % | -23.4% | +0.2% |
| Units P/L | -3.75u | +0.03u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Sabalenka | Navarro |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 2 | 2 |
| Matches | 5 | 3 |
| Distance | 411 mi · 662 km | 411 mi · 662 km |
| Route | CAN → POL | CAN → POL |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Sabalenka has a higher win rate against shared opponents (70% vs Navarro's 50%).
| Opponent | Sabalenka | Navarro |
|---|---|---|
| Sara Bejlek | L 67 46 | W 61 64 |
| Jessica Pegula | L 46 76 06 | L 57 26 |
| Shuai Zhang | W 63 64 | W 26 76 62 |
| Marta Kostyuk | W 64 63 | L 26 64 16 |
| Jessica Bouzas Maneiro | W 64 62 | W 76 62 |
| Caty Mcnally | W 64 62 | L 64 06 46 |
| Diana Shnaider | L 63 57 06 | L 36 36 |
| Iva Jovic | W 63 60 | L 06 36 |
| Victoria Mboko | W 76 64 | W 60 57 62 |
| Ann Li | W 76 64 | W 61 63 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Sara Bejlek
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Xinyu Wang
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 19
Talia Gibson
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Ekaterina Alexandrova
National Bank Open - Toronto · 4th Round
Aug 9
Shuai Zhang
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Moyuka Uchijima
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Naomi Osaka
Wimbledon - London · 4th Round
Jul 5
Jelena Ostapenko
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 3
Jessica Pegula
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Anhelina Kalinina
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Alina Korneeva
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Elisabetta Cocciaretto
Mubadala DC Open - Washington · 2nd Round
Jul 29
Sofia Kenin
Mubadala DC Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 27
Marta Kostyuk
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 4
Oksana Selekhmeteva
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 2
Paula Badosa
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 30
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 47–60 matches
| Metric | Sabalenka | Navarro |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 83% | 53% |
| Sets won | 79% | 52% |
| Games won | 59% | 50% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Sabalenka | Navarro |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 2 | 0 |
| WTA 1000 | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Sabalenka | Navarro |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 1 |
| Clay | 1 | 0 |
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