Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina AlexandrovaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇧🇾Aryna Sabalenka
#2 · 28 yrs · Right-Handed
9 meetings · sets 12–9
🇷🇺Ekaterina Alexandrova
#24 · 31 yrs · Right-Handed
Aryna Sabalenka and Ekaterina Alexandrova have met 9 times since 2019; Aryna Sabalenka leads 5–4. Their first meeting came at Shenzhen in 2019 on hard. On hard courts they are level 3–3. On grass courts Sabalenka leads 2–1. 1 of their meetings has been a final, with Alexandrova leading those 1–0. Across all meetings Sabalenka has taken 12 sets to Alexandrova's 9. Their most recent meeting: Ekaterina Alexandrova won at National Bank Open - Toronto (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Sabalenka | Alexandrova | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Aryna Sabalenka | Ekaterina Alexandrova | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 86% | 44/51 | 70% | 16/23 |
| Wins a set when losing | 64% | 7/11 | 44% | 12/27 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 23% | 14/62 | 38% | 19/50 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 70% | 42/60 | 40% | 12/30 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | — | 59% | 10/17 | |
| Tiebreak sets won | 68% | 13/19 | 36% | 5/14 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 94% | 48/51 | 83% | 19/23 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 86% | 44/51 | 70% | 16/23 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 6 of 9 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Sabalenka 4, Alexandrova 2).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Sabalenka
💥 Big Hitter
Alexandrova
🤖 Servebot
Matchup analysis
💥 Big Hitter vs 🤖 Servebot is historically tight (49% vs 51%, 3,072 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
9 career meetings, newest first
Aug 9, 2026
National Bank Open - Toronto
H Hard · 4th Round
Jun 17, 2026
Berlin Tennis Open - Berlin
G Grass · 2nd Round
Feb 11, 2025
Qatar TotalEnergies Open - Doha
H Hard · 2nd Round
Aug 30, 2024
U.S. Open - New York
H Hard · 3rd Round
Jul 10, 2023
Wimbledon - London
G Grass · 4th Round
Jun 12, 2022
Libema Open - 's-Hertogenbosch
G Grass · Final
Oct 22, 2021
Kremlin Cup - Moscow
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Feb 1, 2019
St. Petersburg
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Jan 3, 2019
Shenzhen
H Hard · Round of 16
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Sabalenka | Alexandrova | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Aryna Sabalenka | Ekaterina Alexandrova | ||
| 1 or more | 93% | 14/15 | 100% | 14/14 |
| 3 or more | 87% | 13/15 | 79% | 11/14 |
| 5 or more | 67% | 10/15 | 57% | 8/14 |
| 10 or more | 27% | 4/15 | 7% | 1/14 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/14 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/14 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Sabalenka | Alexandrova |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 10–4 | 8–6 |
| Avg odds | 1.17 | 2.51 |
| ROI % | -18.6% | +37.6% |
| Units P/L | -2.61u | +5.26u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Sabalenka | Alexandrova |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 2 |
| Events | 1 | 2 |
| Matches | 2 | 5 |
| Distance | 0 mi · 0 km | 654 mi · 1,053 km |
| Route | ROU | ROU → CZE |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Sabalenka has a higher win rate against shared opponents (60% vs Alexandrova's 50%).
| Opponent | Sabalenka | Alexandrova |
|---|---|---|
| Linda Noskova | W 76 36 76 | W 62 62 |
| Diana Shnaider | L 63 57 06 | W 36 64 63 |
| Elena Rybakina | L 46 75 26 | L 46 46 |
| Marta Kostyuk | W 64 63 | L 36 26 |
| Maria Victoria Quinde Serrano | W 62 64 | W 63 76 |
| Mccartney Kessler | W 61 76 | W 62 62 |
| Sara Bejlek | L 67 46 | L 64 16 26 |
| Talia Gibson | W 62 76 | W 57 61 63 |
| Elina Svitolina | W 62 63 | L 63 06 36 |
| Naomi Osaka | L 26 67 | L 26 26 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Nikola Bartunkova
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round
Oct 4
Renata Zarazua
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 2
Elena Rybakina
U.S. Open - New York · Final
Sep 12
Jessica Pegula
U.S. Open - New York · Semifinals
Sep 10
Linda Noskova
U.S. Open - New York · Quarterfinals
Sep 8
Taylor Townsend
U.S. Open - New York · 4th Round
Sep 6
Kamilla Rakhimova
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 4
Polina Iatcenko
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Leylah Fernandez
Wuhan Open - Wuhan · 1st Round
Oct 12
Mirra Andreeva
China Open - Beijing · Quarterfinals
Oct 8
Linda Noskova
China Open - Beijing · 4th Round
Oct 6
Diana Shnaider
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round
Oct 4
Aliaksandra Sasnovich
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 2
Marta Kostyuk
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 4
Kimberly Birrell
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Mccartney Kessler
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 30
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 50–62 matches
| Metric | Sabalenka | Alexandrova |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 82% | 46% |
| Sets won | 79% | 49% |
| Games won | 59% | 50% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Sabalenka | Alexandrova |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 0 | 1 |
| Grand Slam | 2 | 0 |
| WTA 500 | 2 | 1 |
| WTA 250 | 1 | 1 |
| WTA 1000 | 0 | 2 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Sabalenka | Alexandrova |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 3 | 3 |
| Grass | 2 | 1 |
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