Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina AlexandrovaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇧🇾Aryna Sabalenka
#1 · 28 yrs · Right-Handed
9 meetings · sets 12–9
🇷🇺Ekaterina Alexandrova
#19 · 31 yrs · Right-Handed
Aryna Sabalenka and Ekaterina Alexandrova have met 9 times since 2019; Aryna Sabalenka leads 5–4. Their first meeting came at Shenzhen in 2019 on hard. On hard courts they are level 3–3. On grass courts Sabalenka leads 2–1. 1 of their meetings has been a final, with Alexandrova leading those 1–0. Across all meetings Sabalenka has taken 12 sets to Alexandrova's 9. Their most recent meeting: Ekaterina Alexandrova won at National Bank Open - Toronto (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Sabalenka | Alexandrova | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Aryna Sabalenka | Ekaterina Alexandrova | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 84% | 42/50 | 75% | 18/24 |
| Wins a set when losing | 70% | 7/10 | 46% | 13/28 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 25% | 15/60 | 37% | 19/52 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 69% | 41/59 | 44% | 15/34 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | — | 60% | 9/15 | |
| Tiebreak sets won | 63% | 12/19 | 43% | 6/14 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 92% | 45/49 | 80% | 20/25 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 86% | 42/49 | 72% | 18/25 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 6 of 9 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Sabalenka 4, Alexandrova 2).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Sabalenka
💥 Big Hitter
Alexandrova
🤖 Servebot
Matchup analysis
💥 Big Hitter vs 🤖 Servebot is historically tight (49% vs 51%, 3,090 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
9 career meetings, newest first
Aug 9, 2026
National Bank Open - Toronto
H Hard · 4th Round
Jun 17, 2026
Berlin Tennis Open - Berlin
G Grass · 2nd Round
Feb 11, 2025
Qatar TotalEnergies Open - Doha
H Hard · 2nd Round
Aug 30, 2024
U.S. Open - New York
H Hard · 3rd Round
Jul 10, 2023
Wimbledon - London
G Grass · 4th Round
Jun 12, 2022
Libema Open - 's-Hertogenbosch
G Grass · Final
Oct 22, 2021
Kremlin Cup - Moscow
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Feb 1, 2019
St. Petersburg
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Jan 3, 2019
Shenzhen
H Hard · Round of 16
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Sabalenka | Alexandrova | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Aryna Sabalenka | Ekaterina Alexandrova | ||
| 1 or more | 93% | 14/15 | 93% | 13/14 |
| 3 or more | 87% | 13/15 | 71% | 10/14 |
| 5 or more | 73% | 11/15 | 64% | 9/14 |
| 10 or more | 20% | 3/15 | 7% | 1/14 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/14 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/14 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Sabalenka | Alexandrova |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 11–5 | 7–7 |
| Avg odds | 1.16 | 2.34 |
| ROI % | -23.4% | +9.4% |
| Units P/L | -3.75u | +1.32u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Sabalenka | Alexandrova |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 3 |
| Events | 2 | 3 |
| Matches | 5 | 7 |
| Distance | 411 mi · 662 km | 1,715 mi · 2,760 km |
| Route | CAN → POL | CAN → POL → AUT |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Sabalenka has a higher win rate against shared opponents (60% vs Alexandrova's 40%).
| Opponent | Sabalenka | Alexandrova |
|---|---|---|
| Sara Bejlek | L 67 46 | L 64 16 26 |
| Talia Gibson | W 62 76 | W 57 61 63 |
| Elina Svitolina | W 62 63 | L 63 06 36 |
| Naomi Osaka | L 26 67 | L 26 26 |
| Jelena Ostapenko | W 64 64 | L 46 26 |
| Iva Jovic | W 63 60 | L 36 63 46 |
| Mccartney Kessler | W 61 76 | W 63 63 |
| Ann Li | W 76 64 | W 61 67 61 |
| Jessica Pegula | L 46 76 06 | L 57 63 36 |
| Diana Shnaider | L 63 57 06 | W 63 64 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Sara Bejlek
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Xinyu Wang
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 19
Talia Gibson
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Ekaterina Alexandrova
National Bank Open - Toronto · 4th Round
Aug 9
Shuai Zhang
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Moyuka Uchijima
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Naomi Osaka
Wimbledon - London · 4th Round
Jul 5
Jelena Ostapenko
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 3
Clara Tauson
Abierto GNP Seguros - Monterrey · 2nd Round
Aug 27
Sara Bejlek
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Anna Blinkova
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Elina Svitolina
National Bank Open - Toronto · Quarterfinals
Aug 11
Aryna Sabalenka
National Bank Open - Toronto · 4th Round
Aug 9
Talia Gibson
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 6
Maria Victoria Quinde Serrano
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 4
Iva Jovic
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 3
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 52–60 matches
| Metric | Sabalenka | Alexandrova |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 83% | 46% |
| Sets won | 79% | 50% |
| Games won | 59% | 50% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Sabalenka | Alexandrova |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 0 | 1 |
| Grand Slam | 2 | 0 |
| WTA 500 | 2 | 1 |
| WTA 250 | 1 | 1 |
| WTA 1000 | 0 | 2 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Sabalenka | Alexandrova |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 3 | 3 |
| Grass | 2 | 1 |
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