Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Jessica PegulaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇷🇺Ekaterina Alexandrova
#19 · 31 yrs · Right-Handed
6 meetings · sets 8–8
🇺🇸Jessica Pegula
#3 · 32 yrs · Right-Handed
Ekaterina Alexandrova and Jessica Pegula have met 6 times since 2021; they are level 3–3. Their first meeting came at Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome in 2021 on clay. On clay courts Pegula leads 2–1. On hard courts Alexandrova leads 2–1. Across all meetings Alexandrova has taken 8 sets to Pegula's 8. Their most recent meeting: Jessica Pegula won at Wuhan Open - Wuhan (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Alexandrova | Pegula | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Ekaterina Alexandrova | Jessica Pegula | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 75% | 18/24 | 54% | 31/57 |
| Wins a set when losing | 46% | 13/28 | 47% | 9/19 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 37% | 19/52 | 46% | 35/76 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 44% | 15/34 | 50% | 30/60 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 60% | 9/15 | 63% | 10/16 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 43% | 6/14 | 63% | 12/19 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 80% | 20/25 | 88% | 42/48 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 72% | 18/25 | 65% | 31/48 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 6 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Alexandrova 1, Pegula 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Alexandrova
🤖 Servebot
Pegula
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
🤖 Servebot vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (52% vs 48%, 3,090 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
6 career meetings, newest first
Oct 9, 2025
Wuhan Open - Wuhan
H Hard · 3rd Round
Apr 19, 2025
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix - Stuttgart
C Clay · Quarterfinals
Apr 5, 2025
Credit One Charleston Open - Charleston
C Clay · Semifinals
Feb 13, 2025
Qatar TotalEnergies Open - Doha
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Mar 27, 2024
Miami Open - Miami
H Hard · Quarterfinals
May 13, 2021
Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome
C Clay · 3rd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Alexandrova | Pegula | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Ekaterina Alexandrova | Jessica Pegula | ||
| 1 or more | 93% | 13/14 | 95% | 20/21 |
| 3 or more | 71% | 10/14 | 76% | 16/21 |
| 5 or more | 64% | 9/14 | 33% | 7/21 |
| 10 or more | 7% | 1/14 | 5% | 1/21 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/14 | 0% | 0/21 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/14 | 0% | 0/21 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Alexandrova | Pegula |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 7–7 | 17–5 |
| Avg odds | 2.34 | 1.48 |
| ROI % | +9.4% | +10.4% |
| Units P/L | +1.32u | +2.29u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Alexandrova | Pegula |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 3 | 3 |
| Events | 3 | 3 |
| Matches | 7 | 12 |
| Distance | 1,715 mi · 2,760 km | 761 mi · 1,225 km |
| Route | CAN → POL → AUT | AUT → CAN → POL |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Pegula has a higher win rate against shared opponents (70% vs Alexandrova's 50%).
| Opponent | Alexandrova | Pegula |
|---|---|---|
| Clara Tauson | L 67 64 36 | W 63 26 64 |
| Iga Swiatek | L 61 67 57 | W 75 46 64 |
| Elina Svitolina | L 63 06 36 | W 62 64 |
| Aryna Sabalenka | W 76 46 64 | W 64 67 60 |
| Diana Shnaider | W 63 64 | L 36 36 |
| Alexandra Eala | W 63 63 | L 64 46 06 |
| Iva Jovic | L 36 63 46 | W 46 63 61 |
| Ann Li | W 61 67 61 | W 61 62 |
| Linda Noskova | L 16 16 | L 46 64 36 |
| Katerina Siniakova | W 64 62 | W 62 64 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Clara Tauson
Abierto GNP Seguros - Monterrey · 2nd Round
Aug 27
Sara Bejlek
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Anna Blinkova
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Elina Svitolina
National Bank Open - Toronto · Quarterfinals
Aug 11
Aryna Sabalenka
National Bank Open - Toronto · 4th Round
Aug 9
Talia Gibson
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 6
Maria Victoria Quinde Serrano
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 4
Iva Jovic
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 3
Coco Gauff
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Final
Aug 24
Iga Swiatek
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Semifinals
Aug 22
Amanda Anisimova
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 20
Sorana Cirstea
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 19
Emma Navarro
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Simona Waltert
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Diana Shnaider
National Bank Open - Toronto · 4th Round
Aug 8
Kamilla Rakhimova
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 6
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 52–76 matches
| Metric | Alexandrova | Pegula |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 46% | 75% |
| Sets won | 50% | 66% |
| Games won | 50% | 56% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Alexandrova | Pegula |
|---|---|---|
| WTA 500 | 1 | 1 |
| WTA 1000 | 2 | 2 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Alexandrova | Pegula |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 2 | 1 |
| Clay | 1 | 2 |
Share this matchup
Copy the link to paste in Discord or group chats.