Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Jessica PegulaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇷🇺Ekaterina Alexandrova
#24 · 31 yrs · Right-Handed
6 meetings · sets 8–8
🇺🇸Jessica Pegula
#4 · 32 yrs · Right-Handed
5wEkaterina Alexandrova and Jessica Pegula have met 6 times since 2021; they are level 3–3. Their first meeting came at Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome in 2021 on clay. On clay courts Pegula leads 2–1. On hard courts Alexandrova leads 2–1. Across all meetings Alexandrova has taken 8 sets to Pegula's 8. Their most recent meeting: Jessica Pegula won at Wuhan Open - Wuhan (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Alexandrova | Pegula | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Ekaterina Alexandrova | Jessica Pegula | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 70% | 16/23 | 61% | 31/51 |
| Wins a set when losing | 44% | 12/27 | 47% | 7/15 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 38% | 19/50 | 41% | 27/66 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 40% | 12/30 | 55% | 29/53 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 59% | 10/17 | 58% | 7/12 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 36% | 5/14 | 69% | 9/13 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 83% | 19/23 | 89% | 39/44 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 70% | 16/23 | 70% | 31/44 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 6 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Alexandrova 1, Pegula 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Alexandrova
🤖 Servebot
Pegula
👑 The Complete Package
Matchup analysis
The 👑 The Complete Package archetype wins about 54% vs 🤖 Servebot across 2,084 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Jessica Pegula.
The Complete Package players often use elite serve & return and high bp conversion to pressure the servebot's high ace rate.
Previous meetings
6 career meetings, newest first
Oct 9, 2025
Wuhan Open - Wuhan
H Hard · 3rd Round
Apr 19, 2025
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix - Stuttgart
C Clay · Quarterfinals
Apr 5, 2025
Credit One Charleston Open - Charleston
C Clay · Semifinals
Feb 13, 2025
Qatar TotalEnergies Open - Doha
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Mar 27, 2024
Miami Open - Miami
H Hard · Quarterfinals
May 13, 2021
Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome
C Clay · 3rd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Alexandrova | Pegula | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Ekaterina Alexandrova | Jessica Pegula | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 14/14 | 95% | 18/19 |
| 3 or more | 79% | 11/14 | 90% | 17/19 |
| 5 or more | 57% | 8/14 | 37% | 7/19 |
| 10 or more | 7% | 1/14 | 0% | 0/19 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/14 | 0% | 0/19 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/14 | 0% | 0/19 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Alexandrova | Pegula |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 8–6 | 14–4 |
| Avg odds | 2.51 | 1.48 |
| ROI % | +37.6% | +4.8% |
| Units P/L | +5.26u | +0.86u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Alexandrova | Pegula |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | — |
| Events | 2 | — |
| Matches | 5 | — |
| Distance | 654 mi · 1,053 km | — |
| Route | ROU → CZE | — |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Alexandrova has a higher win rate against shared opponents (60% vs Pegula's 50%).
| Opponent | Alexandrova | Pegula |
|---|---|---|
| Leylah Fernandez | L 46 63 36 | W 16 64 63 |
| Linda Noskova | W 62 62 | L 46 64 36 |
| Diana Shnaider | W 36 64 63 | L 36 36 |
| Aryna Sabalenka | W 76 46 64 | L 57 26 |
| Marta Kostyuk | L 36 26 | L 16 46 |
| Kimberly Birrell | W 61 26 63 | L 61 36 36 |
| Sofia Kenin | W 76 63 | W 63 61 |
| Mccartney Kessler | W 62 62 | W 60 62 |
| Clara Tauson | L 67 64 36 | W 63 26 64 |
| Elina Svitolina | L 63 06 36 | W 62 64 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Leylah Fernandez
Wuhan Open - Wuhan · 1st Round
Oct 12
Mirra Andreeva
China Open - Beijing · Quarterfinals
Oct 8
Linda Noskova
China Open - Beijing · 4th Round
Oct 6
Diana Shnaider
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round
Oct 4
Aliaksandra Sasnovich
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 2
Marta Kostyuk
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 4
Kimberly Birrell
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Mccartney Kessler
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 30
Aryna Sabalenka
U.S. Open - New York · Semifinals
Sep 10
Emma Navarro
U.S. Open - New York · Quarterfinals
Sep 9
Sorana Cirstea
U.S. Open - New York · 4th Round
Sep 7
Leylah Fernandez
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 4
Sofia Kenin
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 2
Elena Gabriela Ruse
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 30
Coco Gauff
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Final
Aug 24
Iga Swiatek
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Semifinals
Aug 22
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 50–66 matches
| Metric | Alexandrova | Pegula |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 46% | 77% |
| Sets won | 49% | 69% |
| Games won | 50% | 57% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Alexandrova | Pegula |
|---|---|---|
| WTA 500 | 1 | 1 |
| WTA 1000 | 2 | 2 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Alexandrova | Pegula |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 2 | 1 |
| Clay | 1 | 2 |
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