Aryna Sabalenka vs Daria KasatkinaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇧🇾Aryna Sabalenka
#1 · 28 yrs · Right-Handed
10 meetings · sets 17–4
🇦🇺Daria Kasatkina
#59 · 29 yrs · Right-Handed
Aryna Sabalenka and Daria Kasatkina have met 10 times since 2019; Aryna Sabalenka leads 8–2. Their first meeting came at Beijing in 2019 on hard. On hard courts Sabalenka leads 4–2. On clay courts Sabalenka leads 3–0. Sabalenka has won the last 5 meetings. Across all meetings Sabalenka has taken 17 sets to Kasatkina's 4. Their most recent meeting: Aryna Sabalenka won at French Open - Paris (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Sabalenka | Kasatkina | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Aryna Sabalenka | Daria Kasatkina | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 84% | 42/50 | 60% | 9/15 |
| Wins a set when losing | 70% | 7/10 | 53% | 10/19 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 25% | 15/60 | 47% | 16/34 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 69% | 41/59 | 28% | 7/25 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | — | 67% | 6/9 | |
| Tiebreak sets won | 63% | 12/19 | 33% | 4/12 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 92% | 45/49 | 73% | 11/15 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 86% | 42/49 | 60% | 9/15 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 9 of 10 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Sabalenka 8, Kasatkina 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Sabalenka
💥 Big Hitter
Kasatkina
🪃 Counterpuncher
Matchup analysis
The 💥 Big Hitter archetype wins about 53% vs 🪃 Counterpuncher across 7,380 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Aryna Sabalenka.
Big Hitter players often use power groundstrokes and high winner count to pressure the counterpuncher's elite bp conversion.
Previous meetings
10 career meetings, newest first
May 30, 2026
French Open - Paris
C Clay · 3rd Round
Jun 20, 2024
Berlin Ladies Open - Berlin
G Grass · 2nd Round
Jan 5, 2024
Brisbane International - Brisbane
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Sep 4, 2023
U.S. Open - New York
H Hard · 4th Round
Aug 17, 2023
Western & Southern Open - Cincinnati
H Hard · 3rd Round
Aug 5, 2022
Mubadala Silicon Valley Classic - San Jose
H Hard · Quarterfinals
May 2, 2021
Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid
C Clay · 2nd Round
Feb 10, 2021
Australian Open - Melbourne
H Hard · 2nd Round
Oct 1, 2020
French Open - Paris
C Clay · 2nd Round
Oct 2, 2019
Beijing
H Hard · Round of 32
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Sabalenka | Kasatkina | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Aryna Sabalenka | Daria Kasatkina | ||
| 1 or more | 93% | 13/14 | 89% | 8/9 |
| 3 or more | 86% | 12/14 | 33% | 3/9 |
| 5 or more | 71% | 10/14 | 0% | 0/9 |
| 10 or more | 14% | 2/14 | 0% | 0/9 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/14 | 0% | 0/9 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/14 | 0% | 0/9 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Sabalenka | Kasatkina |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 10–5 | 3–7 |
| Avg odds | 1.16 | 2.44 |
| ROI % | -26.5% | -51.7% |
| Units P/L | -3.97u | -5.17u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Sabalenka | Kasatkina |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 2 | 2 |
| Matches | 5 | 2 |
| Distance | 411 mi · 662 km | 411 mi · 662 km |
| Route | CAN → POL | CAN → POL |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Sabalenka has a higher win rate against shared opponents (90% vs Kasatkina's 40%).
| Opponent | Sabalenka | Kasatkina |
|---|---|---|
| Xinyu Wang | W 61 63 | W 16 76 75 |
| Moyuka Uchijima | W 63 63 | W 46 63 60 |
| Elena Rybakina | W 64 63 | L 36 75 46 |
| Naomi Osaka | L 26 67 | L 16 36 |
| Mccartney Kessler | W 61 76 | L 36 67 |
| Nikola Bartunkova | W 26 76 64 | L 67 60 36 |
| Jaqueline Cristian | W 61 64 | L 67 63 26 |
| Peyton Stearns | W 75 63 | W 61 63 |
| Liudmila Samsonova | W 63 62 | W 75 63 |
| Caty Mcnally | W 64 62 | L 26 36 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Sara Bejlek
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Xinyu Wang
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 19
Talia Gibson
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Ekaterina Alexandrova
National Bank Open - Toronto · 4th Round
Aug 9
Shuai Zhang
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Moyuka Uchijima
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Naomi Osaka
Wimbledon - London · 4th Round
Jul 5
Jelena Ostapenko
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 3
Zeynep Sonmez
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 13
Elena Rybakina
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Xinyu Wang
National Bank Open - Toronto · 1st Round
Aug 4
Anna Kalinskaya
Mubadala DC Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 28
Naomi Osaka
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 3
Janice Tjen
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 1
Mingge Xu
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 29
Mccartney Kessler
Lexus Eastbourne Open - Eastbourne · 1st Round
Jun 22
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 34–60 matches
| Metric | Sabalenka | Kasatkina |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 83% | 44% |
| Sets won | 79% | 48% |
| Games won | 59% | 50% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Sabalenka | Kasatkina |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 4 | 0 |
| WTA 500 | 2 | 1 |
| WTA 1000 | 2 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Sabalenka | Kasatkina |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 4 | 2 |
| Clay | 3 | 0 |
| Grass | 1 | 0 |
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